As China’s military capabilities expand, US-China frictions intensify, and regional tensions increase, concern is on the rise that a potential crisis, either accidental or deliberate, could take place that could spiral out of control. 

If a crisis arises with China, leaders may want to de-escalate and prevent a wider conflict. To do so, they will need to understand how China thinks about crisis management and escalation.

The guest for this episode has dug into the writings of PLA strategists and authoritative PRC sources as well as Western scholarship to assess how China views military escalation and how the US and other countries can accurately predict and interpret PRC signal in crisis scenarios.

Lyle Morris is a Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security at the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute. His recently published paper is titled “China’s Views on Escalation and Crisis Management and Implications for the United States.”

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:37] Methodology and Authoritative Chinese Sources

[04:17] PLA Theories and Concepts of Managing Escalation

[06:00] Controlling All Facets of Military Escalation

[10:28] Doctrine of Seizing the Initiative

[15:21] First Use of Force and a Reluctance to Use Force

[19:37] American and Chinese Considerations of Misperception

[25:46] Utility of US-China Tabletop Exercises

[28:33] Predicting a Taiwan Contingency