Commodities Focus

Asian aluminum markets continue to see lackluster demand and ample stocks pressuring premiums, though the sporadic reopening of the Chinese import arbitrage window is providing support across the region.

Further upstream in the alumina markets, flat demand remains a drag on prices globally, but cost pressures and output curtailments are keeping significant declines at bay.

As the market looks at what's ahead for 2024, YuenCheng Mok, Senior Managing Editor of Asia nonferrous metals at S&P Global Commodity Insights discusses the key developments in the Asian alumina and aluminum markets with Jenson Ong and Germaine Lee from the Asia nonferrous metals team, and Lucy Tang, market specialist for Metals.

In this podcast, find out what's in-store in the near term for these markets.

Chinese copper markets are showing signs of recovering from the slump that hit the industry in the second quarter pf this year. The clean concentrate spot TCs are declining on increased demand for cargoes and cathode import interest are improving on tighter spot supplies. As the market heads into negotiation season, YuenCheng Mok, Senior Managing Editor of nonferrous metals at S&P global Commodity Insights discusses the key trends in the Chinese copper concentrate and cathode markets with Jesline Tang, Editor with the nonferrous metals team and Han Lu, senior editor with the team. Find out what's in-store in the near term for these markets and the expectations for 2024 benchmark levels.

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With bearish fundamentals characterizing the global LNG market, what role will US exporters play for Europe this winter? Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and subsequent decoupling between LNG and natural gas in Europe, the US has played an even larger role in the region's energy security.

Global LNG markets have changed dramatically over the past year, with the record prices and extreme volatility of 2022 giving way to more bearish fundamentals ahead of the coming winter. Under those circumstances, what role will US exporters play for Europe this winter? Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and subsequent decoupling between LNG and natural gas in Europe, the US has played an even larger role in the region's energy security.

In this podcast, S&P Global Commodity Insights' Americas and Atlantic LNG experts Corey Paul and Margaret Rogers examine how well the US is placed as a supplier this winter as Europe navigates another peak demand season following the loss of Russian pipeline gas.

Related prices: LNG FOB US Gulf Coast Cargo (LGCSM01) LNG DES Northwest Europe Marker (AASXU00) LNG DES JKM Spot Cargo (AAOVQ00)

High density polyethylene product consumption and market behavior are key indicators for consumer spending. The US and major export outlet Asia are climbing out of a price slump created by HDPE oversupply, attractive cost margins and slow-to-recover demand. With about 1.5 million mt/year of North American ethane-advantaged capacity starting between September and Q1 2024, run rate discipline will be crucial, especially as low prices encourage virgin resin substitution for recyclers despite impending sustainability targets in the US.

Global polymers pricing lead Kristen Hays leads a discussion with global sustainable chemicals lead Heng Hui, US polyethylene editor Colleen Ferguson and US recycled polymers senior editor Antoinette Smith about the main drivers behind HDPE prices and what market participants expect in the short-term as the supply and demand dynamic struggles to find equilibrium.

Related prices: HDPE Blowmolding FAS Houston (AAWCZ00) Recycled HDPE Natural Pellets FOB Chicago (ARNPA00)

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Draft reduction at the Neopanamax locks and limitations on daily transits at the Panamax lock system have resulted in longer wait times to transit the Panama Canal. Shipowners have been raising freight costs to seek reimbursement for higher transit and demurrage fees; lightering ships by offloading cargo before crossing; or rerouting ships via alternative but longer routes.

S&P Global Commodity Insights' Barbara Troner, Americas freight senior managing editor, discusses these impacts with Americas tankers reporter Catherine Rogers, containers reporter Laura Robb, and dry bulk reporter Nikolaos Aidinis Antonopoulos. The group discusses how shipping markets have been impacted by the El Niño-induced water conservation measures responding to the extended dry season in the Panama Canal watershed, and what remedial steps shipowners can take to navigate the logistical bottleneck potentially continuing well into 2024.

Prices in this episode: PCR0500 – North Asia-EC North America $/FEU freight (containers)

GRNOQ00 - DBF Grain New Orleans Louisiana US Gulf Coast-Qingdao China 66kt $/mt Panamax (dry bulk) GRNOJ00 - DBF Grain New Orleans Louisiana US Gulf Coast-Kashima Japan 50kt $/mt Supramax (dry bulk)

TCAUX00 – Medium Range 38kt USGC-Chile Lumpsum freight (tankers)

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A sluggish start to the peak summer demand season has disrupted the global recycled PET markets, with subpar demand from beverage bottling in North America, squeezed margins, stiff competition from virgin resin and pessimism running rampant.

S&P Global Commodity Insights' Heng Hui, global market lead for sustainable chemicals, Lee Joon lei, associate editor for petrochemicals, Charlie Wright also an associate editor and Antoinette Smith, senior editor, Americas chemicals discuss the current RPET conditions and provide a look ahead at the rest of the year and early 2024.

DON'T MISS: Chemical Week's Billion-Dollar Club: Ranking the world's top chemical producers

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US Henry Hub natural gas prices have averaged just $2.43/MMBtu this year, pushing many producers close to, or even below, their breakeven price. Mild weather and weak gas demand this past winter were largely to blame, triggering a selloff that dropped gas prices from historic highs. US gas producers were slow to respond to the selloff, however, and only recently cut rigs, slowed new well starts and dialed back completions. At over 102 Bcf/d, though, US gas production remains near record highs this summer. Will recent capex cuts be enough to balance the market?

S&P Global Commodity Insights' J. Robinson, editorial lead for the Americas natural gas news team, sits down with Reed Olmstead, executive director of research and analysis for upstream, and Jeremy Beaman, editor for the American natural gas team, to discuss the outlook for US output as domestic operators readjust to leaner margins.

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It's been a rough couple of years for US corn and soybeans. 2022 brought drought, record-low Mississippi River water levels, and ultimately sky-high grains and oilseeds prices. The 2023 planting season was initially met with dry weather, causing concern of low yields come harvest time, but have conditions turned around since then and if not, what would that mean for prices and for domestic and export demand?

S&P Global Commodity Insights' Jennifer Pedrick, Pete Meyer, Paul Hughes and Luke Lundgren examine the progress of these crops so far in the crop year, and look toward the possible outcomes of the upcoming harvest on the US market and trade flows in South America and around the globe.

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A year after a historic short squeeze sent LME nickel metal prices soaring above $100,000/mt, industry players remain divided over their pricing preferences in the nickel market with some still referencing the LME, while Chinese market participants have largely moved to other alternatives such as sulfate-basis pricing and SHFE nickel.

Following the Indonesian government's announcement of its plan to develop a nickel index, as well as proposed changes from the LME to strengthen its legacy position, what are the potential implications for the nickel market, and how could near-term supply-demand fundamentals influence this?

Leah Chen, editor of the S&P Global Commodity Insights non-ferrous team discusses the impact of the black swan event as well as recent developments in the nickel industry with Jesline Tang, editor of battery metals pricing team, and Charles Thompson, editor of EMEA nickel, aluminum and secondary alloys.

Related price assessments:

Nickel sulfate DDP China BATNS04 MHP CIF NA basis LME BATMC00 MHP CIF NA basis NS BATMB00 (percentage) MHP CIF NA basis NS BATMA00 MHP CIF NA basis NSME00 MHP CIF NA basis LME BATMD00 (percentage)

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Up to two-thirds of North America is at an elevated risk of electricity shortfalls this summer in extreme conditions with a high load and high outages, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. Conventional plants are retiring faster than the needed transmission and generation can be built, and there are questions about whether the natural gas system is up to the task of supplying fuel to gas-fired generators needed for reliability.

S&P Global Commodity Insights' Kate Winston, a senior editor for Americas power news, discussed reliability with John Moura, the director of reliability assessment at NERC. Joining the discussion were Mason Lester, a senior research analyst with SPGCI, and Daryna Kotenko, the team lead for North American power pricing at SPGCI.

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