Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie is joined by Clara Collier, editor and publisher of Asterisk Magazine, to discuss how we create institutions that bend towards truth. Clara explains why she launched a quarterly print magazine in the Internet age. She traces how 19th century German universities invented the modern infrastructure for rewarding knowledge production and training researchers at scale, and where our public science communication falls short of that heritage. The conversation examines why institutional trust has declined, particularly around science communication and public health, and whether we can rebuild trust in knowledge-producing institutions.
–

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/building-institutions-that-bend-towards-truth-with-clara-collier-of-asterisk-magazine/
–

Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro.
–

Links:

• Asterisk Magazine: https://asteriskmag.com

–
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro

(00:44) The birth of Asterisk Magazine

(02:58) Challenges of print media

(04:41) The media landscape and Twitter's influence

(06:03) The art of long-form writing

(13:08) Editing and copy editing in magazines

(19:33) Sponsor: Framer

(20:45) Editing and copy editing in magazines (part 2)

(25:24) AI in writing and editing

(30:33) The origins of research universities

(34:19) The flawed promotion system in academia

(34:40) The rise of research institutions

(35:32) The birth of modern research culture in Germany

(36:27) The global influence of German universities

(40:13) The American university system vs. German system

(41:50) The role of public and private partnerships in science

(42:47) Challenges in science communication

(56:22) The impact of COVID-19 on public trust in science

(01:06:42) Historical perspectives on medical trust

(01:11:15) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie is joined by Chris Best, CEO of Substack, to discuss how the platform created new economic infrastructure for independent media. They explore Substack's evolution from a simple newsletter tool to a full media network, the revenue guarantee program that attracted prominent writers, and the company's principled stance on press freedom during the "cancel culture" years. Chris explains how subscription-based business models create better incentive alignment than attention-based advertising, and discusses new features like AI-powered video production and Substack Defender, their legal protection program for writers facing lawsuits.
–

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-blogging-went-legit-with-substack-ceo-chris-best/

–

Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro.
–

Links:

• Chris Best’s Substack: https://cb.substack.com/

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:53) The evolution of online publishing

(01:20) Substack's business model

(02:05) Challenges and opportunities in media

(03:47) The role of engagement in media

(06:03) The birth of Substack

(08:58) Making paid newsletters accessible

(10:54) Revenue guarantees and early success

(13:05) Substack's impact on journalism

(17:59) Freedom of the press and Substack's stance

(19:24) Sponsor: Framer

(20:40) Twitter's influence on journalism

(24:09) Substack's role in modern media

(26:04) The impact of cancel culture on journalism

(26:53) The evolution of blogging and discourse

(30:53) Substack's expansion into podcasts and video

(32:42) AI and the future of media production

(38:20) Substack defender

(42:22) The growing network and future of Substack

(46:03) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie is joined again by Kelsey Piper, who has co-founded "The Argument" to revive principled liberal discourse after witnessing how coordinated social media campaigns replaced substantive disagreement in newsrooms. Their conversation traces this institutional breakdown from media to government, examining how DOGE's spreadsheet-driven governance nearly destroyed PEPFAR, America's most successful foreign aid program that had driven infant coffin manufacturers out of business across Africa. The discussion ultimately argues that rebuilding both effective journalism and competent governance requires returning to the hard work of engaging with ground-level reality rather than managing online narratives.

–

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prestige-media-new-media-with-kelsey-piper/
–

Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro.
–

Links:

• The Argument https://www.theargumentmag.com/

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:31) The Argument

(03:19) Challenges in modern journalism

(06:42) The impact of social media on discourse

(13:37) The role of Substack and independent media

(20:13) Sponsor: Framer

(21:30) The role of Substack and independent media (part 2)

(30:59) The PEPFAR program and its importance

(44:01) Impact of US aid cuts on global mortality

(45:25) Substitution efforts and their limitations

(47:54) PEPFAR's partial continuation and challenges

(51:21) Consequences of administrative decisions

(54:28) Elon Musk's influence and government actions

(01:00:14) Challenges in government accountability

(01:15:47) Reforming administrative processes

(01:24:45) The role of community input in development

(01:28:28) The power of constituent voices

(01:30:15) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Emmett Shear, co-founder of Twitch, former interim CEO of OpenAI, who now runs Softmax AI alignment. Emmett argues that current AI safety approaches focused on "systems of control" are fundamentally flawed and proposes "organic alignment" instead—where AI systems develop genuine care for their local communities rather than following rigid rules. 
–

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-alignment-with-emmett-shear/
–

Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro.
–

Links:

• Softmax - https://www.softmax.com/

–
Timestamps:
(01:26) Understanding AI alignment
(04:42) The concept of universal constructors
(13:45) AI's rapid progress and practical applications
(19:08) Sponsor: Framer
(20:19) AI's impact on work
(34:59) AI's sensory and action space
(42:10) User intent vs. user request
(44:35) The illusion of a perfect AI
(49:57) Causal emergence and system dynamics
(55:19) Reflective and intentional alignment
(01:01:08) Engineering challenges in AI alignment
(01:04:15) The future of AI
(01:26:40) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Will Wilson, CEO of Antithesis, to discuss the evolution of software testing from traditional approaches to cutting-edge deterministic simulation. Will explains how his team built technology that creates "time machines" for distributed systems, enabling developers to find and debug complex failures that would be nearly impossible to reproduce in traditional testing environments. They explore how this approach scales from finding novel bugs in Super Mario Brothers to ensuring the reliability of critical financial and infrastructure systems, and discuss the implications for a future where AI writes increasingly more code.
–

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/software-testing-with-will-wilson/

–

Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro.
–

Recommended in this episode:

• Antithesis: https://antithesis.com/

––

Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:23) Database scaling and the CAP theorem
(08:13) Abstraction layers and hardware reality
(15:28) The problem with traditional testing
(19:43) Sponsor: Framer
(23:16) The fuzzing revolution
(30:35) Deterministic simulation testing
(42:36) Real-world testing strategies
(47:22) Introducing Antithesis
(59:23) The CrowdStrike example
(01:01:15) Finding bugs in Mario
(01:07:37) Property-based vs conventional testing
(01:09:51) The future of AI-assisted development
(01:14:51) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Bean, a pseudonymous defense industry expert, to explore the intellectual crossovers between military and civilian domains. The conversation reveals how the defense industry's fundamental constraint of having only one customer (a monopsony) creates entirely different incentives than tech, leading to conservatism and 30-50 year product lifecycles. Bean argues that drones are largely modern iterations of cruise missiles we've had since the 1950s, and explains why current anti-drone defenses make swarm attacks less threatening than headlines suggest.
–

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/defense-with-bean-of-naval-gazing/

–
Sponsor:
This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com

Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. 
–

Recommended in this episode:

• Naval Gazing: https://www.navalgazing.net/

––

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:29) The overlap between tech and defense

(01:35) Operations research in World War II

(02:55) Mathematical insights and military strategies

(05:28) The role of operations research in modern warfare

(16:59) Tech and defense (Part 1)

(19:48) Sponsor: Mercury

(21:00) Tech and defense (Part 2)

(26:07) Economics behind the defense industry

(32:07) SpaceX's early challenges and achievements

(33:00) The Super Hornet development story

(34:39) Military procurement lessons

(37:42) Aerospace industry retention rates

(38:42) Lockheed Martin's dominance and supply chain

(40:55) Drone technology and military applications

(46:53) Anti-drone defenses and future warfare

(48:01) Naval warfare and historical perspectives

(01:01:03) Wrap

This week on Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joel Becker from METR. They discuss groundbreaking research on AI coding assistants.

Joel et al’s randomized controlled trial of 16 expert developers working on major open source projects revealed a counterintuitive finding: despite predictions of 24-40% speed improvements, developers actually took 19% longer to complete tasks when using AI tools, even though they retrospectively believed they were 20% faster. The conversation explores why even sophisticated professionals struggle to accurately assess their own productivity with AI tools, the industrial organization of software development, and the implications for AI's recursive self-improvement in research and development. It also touches on other perspectives from software developers using these tools professionally, and where we can expect them to improve rapidly.

–

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-great-developer-speed-up-with-joel-becker/

–
Sponsor:
This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com 

Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.
–

Recommended in this episode:

• METR: https://metr.org/ 
• Joel Becker’s site: https://joel-becker.com/ 

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:34) Understanding AI evaluation methods

(02:04) METR's unique approach to AI evaluation

(03:10) The evolution of AI capabilities

(06:44) AI as coding assistants

(09:15) Research on AI's impact on developer productivity

(13:55) Sponsor: Mercury

(15:07) Challenges in measuring developer productivity

(20:38) Insights from the research paper

(31:26) The formalities of software development

(32:07) Automated tools and human discussions

(32:47) AI and style transfer in software

(34:35) The role of comments in AI coding

(36:51) The future of AI in software engineering

(40:25) Economic implications of AI in software

(46:53) Challenges and risks of AI in software

(59:03) Security concerns with AI-generated code

(01:04:59) Wrap

In this solo episode, Patrick McKenzie reads his classic essay "Seeing Like a Bank," exploring why financial institutions often appear to have no memory of previous customer interactions despite being excellent at tracking money itself. He breaks down the complex web of legacy systems, tiered support structures, and regulatory constraints that create Kafka-esque experiences for bank customers. Using the lens of institutional legibility borrowed from "Seeing Like a State," Patrick explains how banks' technical architecture and organizational design choices—from core processing systems to customer service tiers—systematically generate the dysfunction that customers experience when things go wrong.

–

Full transcript available here:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-banks-actually-work/

–

Recommended in this episode:

• Patrick’s Bits about Money essay, Seeing like a bank: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/seeing-like-a-bank/

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro
(03:52) Recordkeeping systems
(10:20) Sponsor: Safebase
(11:50) Human accountability and its malcontents
(22:57) Two embedded surprises about bank staffing
(27:47) Society has goals which conflict with banks being good at banking
(30:52) So what can be done about this?

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jim Weisser, a serial entrepreneur and founder of SignTime, for an in-depth exploration of Japan's software market and startup ecosystem. They discuss the unique challenges of building software in a culture that prizes stability over rapid iteration, the dominance of systems integrators, and how Japan's economic stagnation shaped its relationship with technology. The conversation covers everything from Excel-driven development processes to the recent transformation of Japan's VC landscape, offering insights for anyone considering doing business in the world's third-largest economy.

–
Full transcript: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/building-software-in-japan-with-jim-weisser/

–

Sponsor: BoxWorks 2025

Discover hands-on AI data extraction techniques, network with industry experts, and hear featured speakers Vinod Khosla, Jared Kaplan, and Aaron Levie at BoxWorks 2025 in San Francisco (Sept 11-12). Use code BW25-ComplexSystems for 50% off at this link: https://bit.ly/452036h

–

Links:

Signtime:: https://www.signtime.com/en/

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:24) Exploring the Japanese software market

(01:25) Challenges in the Japanese startup ecosystem

(02:37) Jim Weisser's background and journey

(05:14) The evolution of Japan's economy and business practices

(10:15) Understanding Japan Inc. and its impact on software

(10:28) The role of systems integrators in Japan
(19:01) Sponsor: BoxWorks Conference 2025 (*discounted tickets for Complex Systems listeners)

(20:29) Cultural differences in software development

(26:06) Digital transformation and efficiency in Japan

(32:44) Labor market dynamics and employment practices

(35:50) Startup ecosystem and equity culture in Japan

(42:53) Success stories and market potential in Japan

(43:42) Corporate relationships in Japanese companies

(44:10) Salesforce's success in Japan

(45:44) E-commerce boom in Japan

(46:33) Rakuten's evolution and strategy

(48:27) Amazon's journey in Japan

(49:13) Cloud services and security concerns

(51:18) Sansan: Business card management

(55:14) Venture capital landscape in Japan

(01:05:02) Personal reflections on living in Japan

(01:16:21) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by James Riney, partner at Coral Capital, to explore Japan's transformation from a $700 million startup ecosystem to today's $5-10 billion market. They discuss the cultural and structural factors that initially limited venture activity in Japan. The conversation covers unique aspects of building startups in Japan, from the quirks of being a foreign professional to why Japanese engineers love Twitter but ignore LinkedIn, plus insights into Japan's "time machine advantage" and why American-developed dev tools are going viral in Tokyo.
–
Read full transcript here:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/startup-investing-in-tokyo/

–

[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes! You can access them directly on YouTube: www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]
–

Sponsor:  Safebase
Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast

–

Links:

•  Coral Capital: https://coralcap.co/

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:57) The early days of Japanese startups

(04:08) The rise of Coin Check

(05:54) Challenges and opportunities in the Japanese startup ecosystem

(16:09) Cultural and structural differences in hiring
(19:47) Sponsor: Safebase

(21:22) The role of content and communication in Japanese startups

(31:29) LinkedIn vs. Facebook in Japanese work culture

(32:38) LinkedIn's social capital issues in Japan

(33:58) Cultural differences in asking for permission

(34:31) Navigating Japanese regulatory clarity

(36:49) The evolution of VC investment in Japan

(39:54) The rise of SaaS in Japan

(45:26) System integrators and software development in Japan

(50:39) Challenges in Japanese tech companies

(54:36) Opportunities for foreign companies in Japan

(55:03) The importance of commitment in the Japanese market

(57:08) Dev tools and viral adoption in Japan

(59:31) Japan's influence on global tech

(01:03:23) Wrap