Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie is joined by AI researcher Yoav Tzfati to discuss “vibe coding” - using LLMs to delegate software engineering work to AI models. Yoav runs a bootcamp teaching programming novices to build full-stack web applications using AI, without them ever looking at code. Patrick and Yoav discuss the fundamental shift in software engineering, where humans increasingly act as product managers directing AI "junior engineers," and explore the implications for the future of programming careers and the democratization of software development.

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Read full transcript here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-ai-reshapes-software-engineering/
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[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes like this one!You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]
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Links:

• Follow Yoav Tzfati: https://x.com/yoavtzfati 
• Yoav's bootcamp: https://www.code-bloom.app/

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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro

(00:32) Defining vibe coding

(01:35) The evolution of software engineering with LLMs

(04:07) Practical applications of vibe coding

(09:37) Teaching vibe coding to novices

(18:30) Future of AI in software development

(21:42) Discussing timelines and model capabilities

(22:12) Flappy Bird and the evolution of game development

(23:27) The impact of LLMs on software engineering

(24:46) Future of coding and human roles

(29:47) Monitoring and error handling in software

(31:20) The role of LLMs in code review and maintenance

(35:12) Wireframing and project management with LLMs

(36:40) The future of software engineering careers

(43:07) Practical tips for software engineers

(44:38) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Cate Hall, CEO of Astera Institute and author of a forthcoming book on agency, to explore how individuals can systematically develop higher agency in their lives. They discuss the selection effects that draw agentic people to fields like poker and startups, the importance of being comfortable with ignorance and feedback, and practical strategies like asking "Is there a better way to do this?" ten times daily. Cate shares insights from her journey from Supreme Court lawyer to world champion poker player, including how peer groups, emergencies, and what addicts call "the gift of desperation" can trigger step-changes in personal agency.
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Full transcript available here:
https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/stacking-the-odds-cate-hall/

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[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes like this one.You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]

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Links:

• Cate Hall’s Writing: https://usefulfictions.substack.com/
• Pre-order Cate's book on agency: https://mailchi.mp/44578760e686/book-preorder-signup
• Astera: https://astera.org/ 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro 

(00:28) Exploring the concept of agency

(00:56) Selection effects in different fields

(01:31) The tech industry evolution

(02:54) Y Combinator's changing demographics

(04:23) Parallels between poker and startups

(15:48) The role of networking and relationships

(19:12) Embracing feedback and continuous improvement

(23:49) Exploring growth mindset

(24:35) AI and personal improvement

(27:04) Learning with AI: strategies and cautions

(27:53) The value of human interaction

(30:19) Professional gamblers and their unique insights

(35:05) Understanding agency and its development

(38:45) Triggers for increased agency

(45:23) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss the evolution of her trading education business, Arbor, one year after their first conversation. They dive deep into the pedagogy of trading, exploring how simulated markets teach concepts like adverse selection, team dynamics, and risk management through hands-on experience. Ricki shares war stories from the bootcamp trenches—infinite loop bugs that mirror Knight Capital's disaster, WiFi outages that create unexpected trading opportunities, and that the most successful trading teams often focus on internal team communication even more than trade execution or technical acumen.

See the full transcript:
https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/think-like-a-trader-ricki-heicklen/

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[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes.You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]

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Links:

• Trading Camp : https://trading.camp/
• Metagame: https://www.metagame.games/#tickets 
• Story of Knight Capital: https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/admin/2013/34-70694.pdf

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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro

(00:46) Ricki's journey from trading to teaching

(01:25) The birth of Arbor and first bootcamps

(03:32) Developing a trader's mindset

(05:53) Understanding heuristics in trading

(08:21) Adverse selection in everyday life

(15:40) Insights from teaching trading bootcamps

(21:07) Pedagogical approach: learning by doing

(32:00) Handling mistakes and learning opportunities

(36:17) Unplanned bugs and real-world lessons

(39:47) Learning from Knight Capital's bug

(40:24) Understanding exchange-side bugs

(43:10) Risk limits and strategy separation

(44:41) Importance of UI in trading bots

(46:53) The Madagascar button

(48:20) The big red button in manufacturing

(49:45) Simulated trading and information aggregation

(50:29) Sibling trading game explained

(53:24) Modeling and hidden information

(01:01:15) Trading behavior and market updates

(01:04:38) Real-world applications and lessons

(01:13:58) Surprises and market opportunities

(01:16:24) Pedagogical approaches in trading education

(01:17:08) Market dynamics and counterparty behavior

(01:17:53) Retail vs. institutional order flow

(01:19:23) Simplifying trading concepts for beginners

(01:21:27) Introducing market characters and their roles

(01:31:31) Team dynamics and communication in trading

(01:39:13) The importance of redundancy in trading systems

(01:47:52) Future of trading education and online classes

(01:53:47) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie is joined by Adam Jarvis, author of the Public Service substack and a New Zealand civil engineer and public sector veteran. They discuss how political capital constraints, funding misalignment across government levels, and accumulated regulatory "scar tissue" make infrastructure projects extraordinarily difficult. The conversation reveals why replacing a water pipe now costs more in planning than the entire project did a decade ago, and how talent sorting has drained capacity from public institutions. Despite these challenges, Patrick and Adam find reasons for optimism about reforming government capacity.

Complex Systems now has video episodes as well. Watch this episode and subscribe at: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast
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Full transcript: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/achieving-results-in-the-physical-world-with-adam-jarvis-of-public-service/

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Links:

• Public Service Substack: https://alethios.substack.com/ 

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Timestamps: 

(00:00) Introduction to Complex Systems 
(01:13) Understanding local government functions 
(03:41) Challenges in public sector project delivery 
(06:31) Funding complexities in public projects 
(09:14) The burden of regulatory and legislative constraints
(17:04) Appreciating the infrastructure we take for granted 
(23:02) Historical and modern infrastructure challenges 
(30:04) Talent mobility and its impact on public sector 
(33:35) Public sector hiring practices 
(34:11) Agglomeration effects and brain drain 
(36:04) Aging population and resource allocation 
(36:59) Structural factors in public sector layoffs 
(37:49) Hiring and firing in the public sector 
(40:39) Labor mobility and job security 
(46:34) AI and automation in public sector jobs 
(52:56) Risk aversion and process overload 
(01:01:30) Optimism for public sector reform 

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Jennifer Li, a general partner at a16z investing in enterprise, infrastructure and AI. Jennifer breaks down how AI workloads are creating new demands on everything from inference pipelines to observability systems, explaining why we're seeing a bifurcation between language models and diffusion models at the infrastructure level. They explore emerging categories like reinforcement learning environments that help train agents, the evolution of web scraping for agentic workflows, and why Jennifer believes the API economy is about to experience another boom as agents become the primary consumers of software interfaces.
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Full transcript:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-ai-infrastructure-stack-with-jennifer-li-a16z/

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Sponsor:  Vanta

Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex

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Links:

• Jennifer Li’s writing at a16z https://a16z.com/author/jennifer-li/ 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro
(00:55) The AI shift and infrastructure
(02:24) Diving into middleware and AI models
(04:23) Challenges in AI infrastructure
(07:07) Real-world applications and optimizations
(15:15) Sponsor: Vanta
(16:38) Real-world applications and optimizations (cont’d)
(19:05) Reinforcement learning and synthetic environments
(23:05) The future of SaaS and AI integration
(26:02) Observability and self-healing systems
(32:49) Web scraping and automation
(37:29) API economy and agent interactions
(44:47) Wrap

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) recorded with Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) live at the LessOnline conference. They explore practical strategies for getting better results from large language models. Zvi explains how to customize AI behavior through thoughtful system prompts, while Patrick shares techniques for using LLMs as writing partners and research assistants. They discuss the evolving relationship between content creators and AI training data, touching on the emerging field of "generative engine optimization" (GEO). The conversation also covers multimodal capabilities, recursive AI use, and strategies for avoiding common failure modes like hallucination and sycophancy.
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Full transcript: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/getting-better-at-llms-with-zvi-mowshowitz/

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Sponsor:  Vanta

Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex

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Links:

• Don’t Worry About the Vase https://thezvi.wordpress.com/ 

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Timestamps:

(01:08) Understanding system prompts

(02:04) Customizing LLM behavior

(05:58) Memory features in LLMs

(10:21) Generative Engine Optimization (GEO)

(15:59) Sponsor: Vanta

(17:17) Art and AI: Enhancing creativity

(20:36) Recursive use of AIs

(25:22) Addressing LLM frustrations

(27:05) Checking for hallucinations in AI outputs

(28:11) Experimenting with AI models

(29:44) Optimizing AI prompts and outputs

(31:19) Using AI for writing and editing

(32:32) AI as a research and writing partner

(33:26) Prompting AI and humans effectively

(39:39) Balancing AI assistance with personal voice

(51:03) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) discusses software reversing and AI's transformative impact on cybersecurity with Caleb Fenton, co-founder of Delphos Labs. They explore how LLMs are revolutionizing the traditionally tedious work of analyzing compiled binaries, the nation-state cyber warfare landscape, and how AI is shifting security from reactive to proactive defense. They cover the technical details of malware analysis, the economics of vulnerability detection, and the broader implications as both defenders and attackers gain access to increasingly powerful AI tools.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/machine-learning-meets-malware-with-caleb-fenton/

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Sponsor:  Mercury

This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com 

Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.
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Links:

• Delphos Labs: https://delphoslabs.com/ 
• Virus Total: https://www.virustotal.com/gui/home/upload 
• “Thel fraud supply chain”, Bits about Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/the-fraud-supply-chain/ 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:20) Understanding software reversing

(03:52) The role of AI in software security

(06:12) Nation-state cyber warfare

(09:33) The future of digital warfare

(16:45) Sponsor: Mercury

(17:49) Reverse engineering techniques

(30:15) AI's impact on reverse engineering

(41:45) The importance of urgency in security alerts

(42:47) The future of reverse engineering

(43:21) Challenges in security product development

(44:46) AI in vulnerability detection

(46:09) The evolution of AI models

(48:06) Reasoning models and their impact

(49:06) AI in software security

(49:49) The role of linters in security

(57:38) AI's impact on various fields

(01:02:42) AI in education and skill acquisition

(01:08:51) The future of AI in security and beyond

(01:12:43) The adversarial nature of AI in security

(01:19:46) Wrap

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) revisits his widely-shared negotiation essay, which he notes may be the most impactful thing he's done in his career aside from VaccinateCA. The essay covers the psychology and tactics of salary negotiation, emphasizing that engineers have turned being bad at negotiation into a "perverse badge of virtue" and that the financial stakes are enormous—a small salary increase compounds over decades to six-figure differences. Patrick walks through practical advice including never giving a number first, understanding how employers actually think about compensation costs, and reframing negotiation as a professional business discussion rather than something morally questionable.

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Full transcript available here:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-to-negotiate-your-salary-package/

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Sponsor:  Mercury

This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com 

Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.
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Recommended in this episode:

• Patrick’s essay Salary Negotiation: Make More Money, Be More Valued: https://www.kalzumeus.com/2012/01/23/salary-negotiation/ 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(03:25) Why negotiation matters

(05:21) Shifting your mindset to embrace negotiation

(06:49) Your counterparty does not share your mental model of negotiation

(12:46) Your negotiation started before you applied to this job

(17:21) When does a salary negotiation happen?

(19:38) Sponsor: Mercury

(23:16) The first rule is what everyone tells you it is: never give a number first

(28:45) Listen to what people tell you. Repeat it back to them.

(33:22) Research, research, research

(37:13) New information is valuable and can be traded for things you want

(41:20) You have a multi-dimensional preference set. Use it.

(44:08:) For your further perusal

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and returning guest Ross Rheingans-Yoo discuss the strategic advantages of starting a podcast, particularly for professionals seeking to build trust, expand their networks, and support fundraising efforts. They explore the nuts and bolts of podcast production models, recording logistics, transcript creation, and how to make the experience frictionless for high-value guests. Ross shares his thought process around his newly-launched show Development and Research while Patrick gives a behind the scenes look at the makings of Complex Systems.

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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/capitalists-guide-to-podcasting-with-ross-rheingans-yoo

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Sponsor:  Mercury

This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com 

Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.

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Recommended in this episode:

• Development and Research Podcast: https://developmentandresearch.bio/ 
• Podcast Twitter feed: @DevAndResearch
• Ross & Ricki’s Trading Bootcamp June 3-5: https://trading.camp/complex 
• Ross' first appearance on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4GiO0KYqxJNCIdltCyhN6m
• Ricki Heicklen on Complex Systems (our first episode!): https://open.spotify.com/episode/11kEUYRn4gXZGju232hzcg

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:18) The power of podcasting for venture capitalists

(03:09) Building trust through voice 

(07:11) Podcast production models 

(16:38) Recording and equipment essentials 

(23:05) Sponsor: Mercury 

(24:18) Post-production and transcripts 

(32:22) Advertising vs. User experience 

(33:28) Creating standalone artifacts 

(34:20) The power of video clips 

(35:22) Challenges in podcast distribution 

(42:12) The role of guests in podcasts 

(47:12) Pre-recording preparation 

(49:22) Recording session best practices 

(54:22) The value of silence in conversations 

(56:38) Launching and growing a podcast 

(59:18) Trading bootcamp 

(1:02:27) Wrap

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jacob Swett of Blueprint Biosecurity to discuss far UVC technology - a specialized wavelength of UV light that kills airborne pathogens while remaining safe for humans. Jacob explains how widespread deployment of this technology in schools, hospitals, and public spaces could dramatically reduce respiratory diseases and prevent future pandemics, comparing our approach to air quality with the water sanitation revolution that eliminated diseases like typhoid. They discuss the economics of implementation (starting around $30 per student annually with costs likely decreasing), the historical reasons why this technology hasn't been widely deployed, and Blueprint Biosecurity's roadmap for increasing adoption from early users to eventual regulations similar to fire safety codes.

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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/killing-viruses-with-light-with-jacob-swett/ 

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Sponsor:  Mercury

This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com 

Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.

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Recommended in this episode: 

• Blueprint Report: https://blueprintbiosecurity.org/u/2025/03/Blueprint-for-Far-UVC-PREPRINTv1.0.pdf 

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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro

(00:31) The importance of indoor air quality

(01:29) Technologies for cleaner air

(02:31) The promise of Far-UVC

(03:10) Impact of COVID-19 on air quality awareness

(04:11) Understanding Far-UVC light

(06:44) Applications and benefits of Far-UVC

(16:42) Challenges and adoption of Far-UVC

(20:40) Sponsor: Mercury

(21:53) Challenges and adoption of Far-UVC (Part 2)

(23:19) Cost and benefits of Far-UVC

(26:40) The broader impact of respiratory pathogens

(29:41) Rediscovering the world for better health

(30:05) Historical perspectives on infectious diseases

(30:57) The role of sanitation and antibiotics

(33:02) Miasma theory and airborne transmission

(34:59) Impact of World War II on disease research

(38:06) The evolution of public health priorities

(42:39) Future of Far-UVC Technology

(46:03) Challenges in implementing Far-UVC

(56:47) The importance of rigorous studies

(01:00:33) Wrap