In this podcast, host Thomas O’Connor is joined by Tim Payne and Frank Buytendijk to discuss Gartner Maverick research that defies prevailing wisdom by showing that a reliance on demand-driven forecasting can be not just dangerous — but deadly — to your supply chain.

A fixation with the demand-driven principle and a myopic focus on the accuracy of forecasts lead to rigid and fragile supply chain plans that are unexecutable amid the uncertainty and volatility of the modern business environment. Instead, supply chain leaders should concentrate on plans driven by that very uncertainty and volatility so they can achieve the resilience they need to succeed within today’s disruptive landscape.

In the podcast, Payne suggests supply chain professionals should not be obsessed with forecast accuracy. Rather, they should examine the best-case, likely-case and worst-case scenarios and apply the principles of “probabilistic” forecasting to take the uncertainty into account.