Derisky Business

Paul Scharre, AI expert and CNAS Executive Vice President, joins Geoff and Emily to talk about Trump’s AI dealmaking in the Gulf, the rescission of the Biden-era AI diffusion regulations, and the implications for U.S. national security.

Show notes:CNAS Annual Conference

Paul Scharre, “The case for regulating AI like critical infrastructure,” TED

Commerce Department, “Department of Commerce Rescinds Biden-Era Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Rule, Strengthens Chip-Related Export Controls”

Mackenzie Hawkins and Jenny Leonard, “Tech Chiefs, Foreign Leaders Urge Trump to Rethink AI Chip Curbs,” Bloomberg

Tripp Mickle and Ana Swanson, “Outsourcer in Chief: Is Trump Trading Away America’s Tech Future?,” The New York Times

China expert Liza Tobin, managing director at Garnaut Global and new CNAS adjunct senior fellow, joins Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz to discuss the ins and outs of the US-China trade war and the longer-term geopolitical stakes of the tech and trade competition.

Plus, Emily and Geoff explain why and how the Trump administration might follow through on its idea to put a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.

Notes:

CNAS, CNAS Welcomes Shana Mansbach and Liza Tobin as Adjunct Senior Fellows

Liza Tobin, “China’s Brute Force Economics: Waking Up from the Dream of a Level Playing Field,” Texas National Security Review

Matt Pottinger and Liza Tobin, “China and America Aren’t Just in a Trade War. It’s a Fight for the 21st Century,” The Free Press

Robert Atkinson and Liza Tobin, “The Missing Piece in America’s Strategy for Techno-Economic Rivalry with China,” Lawfare

John Pomfret, The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom

Emily and Geoff look back on the first 100 days of Trump’s trade policy, with a focus on how different parts of the U.S. political and economic system are reacting. They get into shifting public opinion on tariffs, congressional debates, market and private sector nervousness, and the courts - all of whom have a view on how the first 100 days of the Trump administration have played out.

CNAS, The First 100 Days

Irineo Cabreros and Aatish Bhatia, “Trump’s Astonishing 100 Days, in 8 Charts,” The New York Times

Megan Brenan, “Most Americans Skeptical About Benefits of Tariffs,” Gallup

Abha Bhattarai, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin, “Most Americans disapprove of Trump on tariffs, Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds,” The Washington Post

While Geoff is on travel, CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine joins Emily to unpack the latest trade war developments, including why President Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs and what might come next.

Ana Swanson, “Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime”, New York Times

This week, we have a special episode in our feed from our fellow CNAS podcast Brussels Sprouts, hosted by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend of the Transatlantic Security Program.

On this episode, recorded on April 3, Andrea and Jim are joined by Dan Mullaney and Tobias Gehrke to discuss how Trump's tariff announcement could impact European economies and the broader transatlantic relationship.

Dan Mullaney is the former assistant U.S. trade representative for Europe and the Middle East and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Tobias Gehrke is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations whose research covers geoeconomics and European Economic Strategy.

Subscribe to Brussels Sprouts wherever you get your podcasts!

Emily and Geoff are recuperating from a busy Liberation Day of new tariff announcements. On this week’s episode, they break down what new tariffs the President announced, raise some questions about how this sweeping new tariff regime will actually be implemented, and discuss what a recent CNAS economic wargame suggests about how foreign countries might respond. Plus, they argue about who gets to negotiate with the penguins.

Ana Swanson, “Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime”, New York Times

White House, “Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits“

Peter Harrell, “The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs”, Lawfare

Emily and Geoff catch up on the Trump administration’s first big action on China tech competition, before digesting this week’s big tariff news (on autos) and looking ahead to next week’s big tariff news - what President Trump has called “Liberation Day”.

Notes:

White House, America First Trade Policy Memo

Doug Irwin, “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense,” Wall Street Journal

Emily and Geoff are joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow Eddie Fishman to discuss his new best-selling book Chokepoints, on how America has weaponized the global economy. They share economic war stories about U.S. actions against Iran, China, and Russia, and Eddie explains why his advice for the Trump administration on economic warfare is “to go big or go home”.

Also, check out new CNAS research, Sanctions By The Numbers: 2024 Year in Review, which provides data-driven analysis on a record-setting sanctions year.

On a live episode of Derisky Business, Emily and Geoff sit down with Peter Harrell, former White House Senior Director for International Economics, and Joyce Chang, Global Chair of Research with JP Morgan's Commercial and Investment Bank, to analyze the North American trade war, how U.S. trading partners, markets and the private sector are reacting, and why someone should sue over the tariffs.

WSJ Editorial on IEEPA-based tariffs

And register here for the CNAS Book Event with Eddie Fishman on 3/12

Alexander Panetta, Washington correspondent for CBC, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, joins Geoff and Emily to discuss Canada’s reactions to the latest trade war salvos. He explains Trump’s “reverse Midas touch” when it comes to shaping Canadian public opinion, discusses how the upcoming Canadian elections may alter Canada’s approach to the United States, and lays out the stakes of the trade war for the future of U.S.-Canadian relations.

Register for tomorrow's event!

Yougov polling, Many Americans and Canadians say higher U.S. tariffs hurt both economies; half of Canadians boycott U.S. companies