Derisky Business

 Emily and Geoff catch up on the America First Investment Policy memo and other news from the last week, before sitting down with Agathe Demarais of the European Council on Foreign Relations to discuss how Europe is responding to Trump and the future of the transatlantic economic security relationship. (Note: This episode was recorded prior to reports on Wednesday that the Trump administration intends to apply 25% tariffs on EU goods.)

Register for a special CNAS conversation with Eddie Fishman who joins Emily to discuss his new book CHOKEPOINTS: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare.

Register for the event here!

Emily and Geoff quickly debrief on the week’s tariff news, including new 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports, before chatting all things semiconductors with Bruce Andrews, who until recently served as Intel’s chief government affairs officer. (Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 12, before President Trump's Thursday statements on reciprocal tariffs.)

White House Proclamation “Adjusting Steel Imports Into the United States”, February 10, 2025

Emily and Geoff digest this past weekend’s on-again, off-again 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the 10% tariffs on China (that at least for now are still here), and debate what these tariff dramas mean for the Trump team’s longer-term ambitions to restructure the global economic order.

Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, “A World Safe for Prosperity: How America Can Foster Economic Security,” Foreign Affairs, February 6, 2025 

Peter Harrell, “The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs,” Lawfare, January 31, 2025 

Ambassador Robert E. Lighthizer, “Want Free Trade? May I Introduce You to the Tariff,” The New York Times, February 6, 2025 

Noah Smith, “When are Tariffs Good?”, Noahpinon, February 6, 2025

Emily Kilcrease, "Articulate a Clear Tariff Roadmap," CNAS, January 20, 2025 

Emily and Geoff play a quick round of Tariff Tarot to dissect Trump’s tariff threats on Colombia last weekend. Then they dig in to the bipartisan debate over banning various connected products, including drones, from China, and explain why this may be one area of continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations. Finally, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program, joins to discuss her research on how drones are changing warfare and why the United States needs to invest in the drone industrial base.

“Securing the Information and Communications Technology and Services Supply Chain: Unmanned Aircraft Systems”

Stacie Pettyjohn, Hannah Dennis and Molly Campbell, “Swarms over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan”

Stacie Pettyjohn, “Evolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine”

Emily Kilcrease, “Using a Sanctions Framework to Fix the ICTS Executive Order,” Lawfare

Emily and Geoff dive in on the unfinished business Trump is inheriting and unpack what we learned from the America First Trade Policy executive memo. Plus we share a few thoughts on how to get the economic security agenda started on the right track, based on our contributions to a new CNAS report on Trump’s First 100 Days.

Show notes:

America First Trade Policy memo

Stephan Miran’s “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System"

CNAS Report: “The First 100 Days”

And see CNAS “Disorderly Conduct” report for prior analysis of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement, the merging of economic and security interests, and the need for economic security agreements

AI expert Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, joins Emily and Geoff to dig into the Biden Administration’s latest export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI plus the prospects for building a global regime to control AI diffusion.

Press release and summary of the AI diffusion rule from the Commerce Department 

Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence 

Paul Scharre, “Decoupling Wastes U.S. Leverage on China,” Foreign Policy

Paul Scharre, “Regulating AI is Easier than you Think,” Time

Epoch AI, a great data source on AI developments: epoch.ai

Deputy Secretary Don Graves joins Emily to talk about the national security mission of the Department of Commerce and to unveil Commerce’s national security strategy.

Read the strategy: “The Decisive Decade: Advancing National Security at the Department of Commerce”

Join Emily and Geoff to catch up on a whole bunch of economic security news, including the ill fated Nippon Steel / U.S. Steel deal, new chips export controls, and TikTik’s bad day in court. Plus, introducing ‘Tariff Tarot,’ a segment to help you make sense of all the tariff proposals and threats from the incoming administration, and an explainer on whether the President has the power to impose all the tariffs he’s talking about (spoiler: yup, sure does).

Read more!

Jacob Helberg, “The Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Power” https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Wires-of-War/Jacob-Helberg/9781982144449

Financial Times, “Biden administration split over US Steel deal” https://www.ft.com/content/c86cebe1-6ece-42cc-9d89-65d96bbd69c6

Edward Alden, “Trump Will Be His Own Trade Czar” Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/11/trump-trade-tariffs-china-europe-canada-mexico-imports-exports/

Douglas A. Irwin, “Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy” https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html

Kathleen Claussen and Timothy Meyer, “How ‘Economic Security’ is Re-shaping Presidential Power” Just Security https://www.justsecurity.org/97760/economic-security-presidential-power/

Emily and Geoff react to the nominations of Scott Bessent for U.S. Treasury Secretary and Howard Lutnick for U.S. Commerce Secretary and overall point man for trade and tariffs. Then Evan Robinson-Johnson, business reporter from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, joins to talk about the national security review of Nippon Steel’s bid to buy U.S. Steel - which both President Biden and President-elect Trump have vowed to block. Complicated labor union dynamics, the companies’ threat to sue, and election-year politics have kept this deal in purgatory, but an impending government deadline could force action in the coming weeks.

“Editorial: Time for post-election sanity: Approve Nippon-U.S. Steel deal” by the Pittsburgh Post Gazette editorial board

“Arbitration board signals support for U.S. Steel’s sale to Nippon in a blow to United Steelworkers union” by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette

"US Steel Review Targeted by Republicans for Potential Probe" by Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg 

“Under Pressure, Dubai Company Drops Ports Deal” by David E. Sanger, The New York Times

Ralls V. CFIUS decision by U.S. Court of Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit

Emily and Geoff switch from obsessing over the election to obsessing over the transition. They dig into what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and technology competition - and how the rest of the world might respond.