A recent study suggests the next ice age will likely begin in about 11,000 years unless emissions change the effects of natural climate cycles. 

最近的一项研究表明，除非排放改变自然气候周期的影响，否则下一个冰河时代可能会在约11，000年内开始。 

An ice age is a period of reduced temperatures causing ice to cover large areas of the northern and southern parts of the world. 

冰河时代是温度降低的时期，导致冰覆盖了世界北部和南部地区的大面积。 

A group of scientists studied changes in the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the sun, the tilt of the Earth’s axis and the movement of the axis itself, called a wobble. These three motions are believed to happen in cycles. The Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovitch developed a theory about 100 years ago that these cycles affected Earth’s long-term climate. 

一群科学家研究了地球围绕太阳的形状的变化，地球轴的倾斜以及轴本身的运动，称为摇摆。 据信这三个动作是在周期中发生的。 塞尔维亚科学家米兰科维奇（Milutin Milankovitch）大约在100年前开发了一种理论，即这些周期影响了地球的长期气候。 

The team noted that small changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun caused predictable cycles of warming and cooling over a period of about 100,000 years. 

该小组指出，在大约100，000年的时间里，地球围绕太阳围绕太阳的轨道的小变化导致了可预测的变暖和冷却周期。 

These findings permitted the team to determine how the three factors of tilt, wobble, and the shape of Earth's orbit might have affected the Earth’s climate over the last 900,000 years. 

这些发现使团队能够确定倾斜，摇摆和地球轨道形状的三个因素如何影响过去900，000年的地球气候。 

The group published its findings in Science on February 27. 

该小组于2月27日在科学上发表了研究结果。 

The scientists examined a million-year record of climate by looking at ice sheets across the northern half of the world and deep ocean temperatures.

科学家通过查看世界北半部的冰盖和深海温度，检查了一百万年的气候记录。 

They then compared this data with small but regular changes in Earth’s orbit over time. 

然后，随着时间的流逝，他们将这些数据与地球轨道的规律变化进行了比较。 

The lead writer of the study is Stephen Barker, a professor at Cardiff University in Britain. He told the French News Agency (AFP) that for many years it has been difficult for scientists to show exactly how small changes in Earth’s orbit have led to huge changes between warm and cold periods.

该研究的首席作者是英国加的夫大学教授斯蒂芬·巴克（Stephen Barker）。 他告诉法国新闻社（AFP），多年来，科学家很难确切地证明地球轨道的小变化如何导致温暖和寒冷时期之间的巨大变化。 

Earth is believed to go through cycles of ice ages and warm periods. The last ice age is thought to have ended around 11,700 years ago. Scientists, such as Milankovitch, have long seen a connection between Earth's orbit and climate. 

据信地球经历了冰河时代和温暖时期的周期。 人们认为最后一个冰河时代大约在11,700年前结束了。 诸如米兰科维奇（Milankovitch）之类的科学家长期以来一直看到地球轨道和气候之间的联系。

However, researchers have struggled to precisely date when each of the climate changes happened. It has also been difficult for them to know exactly which orbit positions affect the start and stop of cold or warm periods. 

但是，研究人员在每种气候变化发生时都努力准确地日期。 他们也很难确切知道哪些轨道位置会影响寒冷或温暖时期的起点和停止。 

Barker said his team of researchers studied slow changes in temperature over long periods of time instead of only looking at shorter periods of change between cold and warm climates. 

巴克说，他的研究人员团队研究了长时间温度的缓慢变化，而不仅仅是看寒冷和温暖气候之间的变化时期较短。 

Barker told AFP, "We would expect a glaciation to occur within the next 11,000 years, and it would end in 66,000 years' time." 

巴克告诉法新社：“我们预计在未来11，000年内会发生冰川，这将在66,000年的时间内结束。” 

Lorraine Lisiecki is a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a co-writer of the study. She said the study shows that changes in climate over tens of thousands of years are not random.

Lorraine Lisiecki是加利福尼亚大学圣塔芭芭拉分校的教授，也是该研究的共同作家。 她说，这项研究表明，数万年以上的气候变化不是随机的。 

The team aims to expand its findings to investigate the long-term effects of human activity on climate. They also want to find out how it might affect Earth’s natural climate cycles. 

该小组旨在扩大其发现，以调查人类活动对气候的长期影响。 他们还想找出它可能会影响地球自然气候周期。