Discover why Doug Peta, the Chief US Investment Strategist at BCA Research, believes it's time to rethink your equity exposure. Unpack the complexities of the business cycle as Doug shares his insights on transitioning from economic expansion to a potential recession. We explore the impact of the Federal Reserve's and Congress's policies over the past four years and why understanding these might be crucial for your investment decisions. If you're curious about how the current economic landscape could affect your portfolio, this conversation promises valuable perspectives on asset allocation timing and the importance of a cautious approach in uncertain times.

Shift your attention to the labor market as we discuss critical indicators shaping the economic outlook. From the JOLTS report to job openings, hires, and quits rates, we analyze the signals suggesting a decelerating labor market and what this means for compensation and consumption trends. As we dissect the role of tax cuts and after-tax compensation, you'll gain a comprehensive understanding of how these elements interplay within the broader economic picture. This segment is essential for anyone looking to grasp the factors that could influence future U.S. consumption patterns.

Finally, we scrutinize the dynamics of the stock market and defensive investment strategies. Consider why passive investment flows might have made the S&P 500 a coincident rather than a leading indicator, and what that means for high valuations and earnings expectations. Explore the resilience of credit spreads, inflation outlooks, and the global economic impact of China. With insights into defensive strategies and the potential for future market shifts, this episode equips you with the knowledge to navigate potential economic and market disruptions with confidence.

The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.

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