Economy Watch

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that while officials cut policy interest rates, markets are bidding up benchmark bond rates.

But first, there was another aggressive fall in the level of American mortgage applications last week, down almost -7% from the prior week, and extending the -17% plunge from that earlier period. But they are +3% higher than year-ago levels. Mortgage interest rates have been rising although they held last week at 6.73%. But they are still well down on the year-ago 7.16% level.

Perhaps the fall in mortgage applications is due to the weak state of their housing demand. Existing-home sales fell -1.0% in September from August to an annual rate of 3.84 mln. That is a -3.5% dip from one year ago. And they are on track for their worst year since 1995. American money isn't 'invested' in housing, it is in financial markets.

There was a well-supported US Treasury 20 year bond auction earlier today which delivered a median yield of 4.53%. But that was an outsized hike from the 3.97% at the prior equivalent event only one month ago.

The US Fed released its October Beige Book review of the surveys in all its districts and it was unremarkable, only finding modest improvements.

American petrol prices keep on easing at the pump, now -11.1% lower than year-ago levels.

And as widely anticipated, Canada cut its official interest rate by -50 bps to 3.75% overnight. They signaled that they will continue to chop the rate should their economy develop as expected. The decision increased the pace of rate cuts following three -25 bps reductions, and this aligns with their recent sharp slowdown in Canadian inflation. Some expect another -50 bps cut at their December meeting.

Singapore's core inflation rate rose again but only to 2.8%. This central bank version is different to the normal CPI because it is the one most influential on their rate settings.

Taiwanese retail sales were up +3.2% in the year to September. And their industrial production was up +12.1% on the same basis.

In China, it is still a long way off, but the retail event known as "Singles Day, or "11-11" (November 11) has kicked off early promotions and by some [official] reports is building momentum. It is a world-scale retail event, probably larger than "Black Friday" in the US and elsewhere.

And staying in China, they are raising petrol prices again, their ninth rise of 2024. They blame "rising crude oil prices" which is a bit of a reach given they have fallen -13.3% over the past year.

Consumer confidence in the Euro Area improved in October to its highest since February 2022. This was as expected. However, it remains negative but has now risen back to its long-term average for the first time in 32 months.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.25% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$2720/oz and down -US$22 from yesterday.

Oil prices are -US$1.50 lower at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$74.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60 USc and down -40 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are back down -20 bps at 55.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 69, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,928 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the global bond selloff has eased, but the reasons for it don't seem to have changed.

First up today, the IMF has lowered its global growth forecast and warned of increasing risks ahead. The growth they see is from the stronger-than-expected performance in the US despite slowdowns in China and Japan. They still see 2024 expanding 3.2% this year in spite of all the supply-chain disruptions. Five years from now, global growth should reach 3.1%, a mediocre performance compared with the pre-pandemic average.

It sees zero growth in New Zealand in 2024, a +1.9% expansion in 2025 and only rising to +2.4% by 2029. Still, that would be better than it sees for most advanced economies - and slightly better than in Australia.

The US Treasury Secretary Yellen claimed that the US rejection of "Made in America" isolationism had made the world a better place than if it had continued, and was the basis of the current global expansion.

The decline in inflation worldwide is helping to keep growth momentum steady, with headline inflation projected to slow to 3.5% by the end of 2025, below the average of 3.6% between 2000 and 2019, they said. Australia is the laggard on progress in taming inflation, they observe.

The new threats they see relate to the rise and rise of trade wars.

Meanwhile, the US retail pulse as measured by the Redbook monitoring eased slightly last week to be +4.6% higher than a year ago. This is better than inflation but at the lower end of the gains since March.

The Richmond Fed's factory survey recorded a small improvement in October, a shift that was not expected. But it remains negative all the same. Their arguably more important services survey turned positive in October, and although also minor it was a shift that was also better than expected.

Although it had been positive since April, Canadian producer prices sank in September, resuming the trend that has started in March 2023.

Here is something we don't normally follow, but it helps explain why the EU manufacturing base remains in the doldrums. EU car registrations came in just over 810,000 in September, a bounce-back from August but well below the 1.1 mln June level. Since the pandemic, the average has been about +800,000 per month. But that is a long way down from the pre-pandemic average of about +1.4 mln per month. It a radical step lower.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.20% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$2742/oz and up +US$22 from yesterday.

Oil prices are +US$2 higher at just under US$72/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$76/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.4 USc and up a minor +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are back up +20 bps at 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 69.1, up +10 bps from yesterday at this time.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,933 and down -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.0%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that investors seem to be having second thoughts about Q3 earnings prospects in light of the supposedly close US election race. Wall Street is retreating and US Treasury yields are rising.

But first, the US Conference Board said its Leading Economic Index fell by -0.5% in September following a -0.3% decline in August. Over the six-month period between March and September 2024, this leading indicator fell by -2.6% which was more than its -2.2% decline over the previous six-month period. Weakness in factory new orders continued to be the major drag, along with the yield spread.

Canada is getting ready for a -50 bps rate cut on Thursday. Sentiment about where their economy is headed seems to be fractured there depending on age. Older Canadians are increasingly optimistic. Younger Canadians remain pessimistic.

Across the Pacific, Malaysia said its economy grew +5.3% in Q3-2024 which is at the upper end of its quarterly growth rates since the start of 2023. A year ago it was expanding at a +3.1% rate.

Taiwanese export orders rose to their highest level in two year in September, even though the pace of that growth slowed to +4.6%. All this is happening while it large neighbour is trying the squeeze it into submission.

That large neighbour's central bank has pushed through cuts to its Loan Prime Rates by its big state-owned banks and by more than expected, cutting the 1 year by -25 bps to 3.10% and the five year by the same amount to 3.60%. These are record lows. The one year rate is the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, the five year rate the benchmark for mortgages.

All this is part of its stimulus plan to prevent a dangerous slowdown from occurring in their economy.

At the same time Chinese banks cut -25 bps from their deposit rates to prevent deterioration in their margins. This will impact huge amounts of Chinese household savings. This may become a factor in some shift of savings into their equity markets.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.18% and up +10 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$2720/oz and unchanged from yesterday.

Oil prices are +US$1.50 higher at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$74/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.3 USc and down -40 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 55.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 69, down -20 bps from yesterday at this time.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,130 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at under +/- 2.0%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that signs of economic under-achievement seem to be cropping up everywhere.

First though, at the end of this week we have the long weekend holiday, for Labour Day. But first, the week ahead will feature October 'flash' PMIs from all over and the third week of Wall Street Q3 earnings results. In the US they will release September durable goods order data. Canada will chime in with a central bank rate decision (probably a -50 bps cut), and there will be confidence survey results from all over. Finally South Korea will release its Q3-2024 GDP growth rate, expected to be a bit north of +2%.

Over the weekend there were no surprises in US housing start data for September, coming in just as expected and the general level it has been at for most of 2024.

And Wall Street's Q3 earnings season reporting is building with 14% of S&P500 companies reporting so far, and the results are quite positive, reinforcing investor risk appetites.

The US also reported its federal budget deficit for September over the weekend. It was a surplus of US$64 bln for the month. For the month, receipts jumped +13% from a year earlier, while outlays sank by -23%. But for the full fiscal year, it ended -US$1.8 tln in deficit (with interest costs exceeding US$1 tln for the first time). At that level the total deficit is equivalent to -6.3% of one year's economic activity in the country. This is up from -6.1% of GDP in 2023.

Across the Pacific, China’s new home prices in their 70 major cities fell -5.7% in September from a year ago, more than the -5.3% fall in the previous month. It was the 15th straight month of decrease and the steepest pace since May 2015. Second hand houses seem to have fallen by much more, by -10.7%. This sector won't be helping China's "wealth effect".

Meanwhile China said its Q3-2024 GDP expanded by +4.6%, marginally better than the +4.5% expected but less than Beijing's 5% target. They also said industrial production improved by +5.4% and retail sales were up +3.2%, on the same basis. Their jobless rate fell slightly, to 5.1%.

Later today, China is expected to cut its Loan Prime Rates by -20 bps, their tenth consecutive cut since the pandemic, and to a record low. The have never raised these rates since they introduced them on 2019 - only ever cuts.

And China's support of equity markets has almost hit ¥2 tln. With the Beijing 'put' in play, it is now not possible to read anything into Chinese equity market signals, especially when they rise. That may only indicate the size of the manipulation.

Japan said its inflation rate fell to 2.5% in September from 3.0% in August. This was its lowest level since April. (It was also 3.0% in September 2023.)

The regular ECB survey of professional forecasters shows that expectations are low for the bloc over the next two years to 2026. They see inflation staying under control, economic expansion rising to only modest levels, and their jobless rate staying little-changed.

And in Australia, suddenly their housing market seems quite fragile. This past weekend, they may have had only a 40% auction clearance rate in Sydney, a very sharp and fast fall from their 'usual' levels of about 70%.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.08% and unchanged from yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$2720/oz and up +US$3 from Saturday - and yet another new all-time high.

Oil prices are -50 USc lower at just over US$69/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$73/bbl. These levels are -US$6/bbl lower than a week ago.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.7 USc and little-changed from this time Saturday. Against the Aussie we are +10 bps firmer at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged to 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 69.2, unchanged from Saturday at this time and little-changed from a week ago.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,582 and down -0.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at under +/- 0.5%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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This is a test of the podcast generator on Google Notebook LLM

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Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news economic data is light today and we await signals from the building Wall Street earnings season. Markets seem positive about what is ahead.

Meanwhile in the US, mortgage applications fell very sharply last week from the prior week, down -17% and the most in nine years (excluding the pandemic). And that was on top of the more than -5% drop last week. The reason is that benchmark mortgage interest rates have been rising for three weeks and are now at a 2 month high of 6.52% for the standard 30 year mortgage.

Canadian housing starts came in at a 224,000 annual rate in September, 18,806 for the month, less than expected but more than in August.

Japanese machinery orders, excluding those for ships and electric power companies, fell -3.4% in the year to August from the same period a year ago. This is a large miss because they were expected to rise +3.6% on that same basis. It was the fifth drop so far this year. Orders for those excluded items (ships and electric power companies) were quite good however, mitigating the fall.

The Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by -25 bps to 2.25% during its October meeting late yesterday, marking the first rate cut since early 2020. It was a move long advocated by the government but it was still not expected. They have a sluggish economy and inflation is now below the lower end of its target range of between 1% to 3%.

Indian exports remained quite lackluster in September at US$34.6 bln and virtually unchanged from a year ago. India is no export powerhouse yet. Imports were US$55.4 bln, so they ran yet another trade deficit and they have been doing that now since 1997 (with one exception in one month in the 2020 pandemic).

British CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in September, its lowest level since April 2021. It was down from 2.2% in August. But much of this sharply lower level came from sharply lower airline ticket prices, something that may be a bit of a one-off.

In Australia, they reported an unusually low birth rate yesterday, with a record low fertility rate. (But it is similar to New Zealand's.) High housing costs are getting the blame.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.01% and down -3 bps from yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today at US$2670/oz and up +US$p from this time yesterday - and a new all-time high.

Oil prices are holding lower at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just under US$74.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.6 USc and down -25 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 55.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 69.2, and marginally lower that at yesterday at this time.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,639 and up another +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modeST at under +/- 1.7%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news China is dusting off some unused regulations to shore up its deteriorating financial situation.

But first, at the overnight dairy auction, prices were little-changed, down -0.2% in USD terms but up +2.8% in NZD terms. The dominant WMP price was essentially unchanged, but the foodservice commodities like SMP were down -1.8%, mozzarella down -8.2% and butter down -0.3%. Going the other way, cheddar cheese was up +4.2% and the only bright spot. No farm gate payout forecasts will be changed because of this event.

Last week's US retail impulse survey shows a strong rise of +5.6% from a year ago. And this is not only well ahead of inflation, it is built on a strong +4.6% gain in the same week a year ago.

Meanwhile, American consumer inflation expectations in September were little-changed at 3% for the year ahead. In fact consumer labour market and household finance expectations are largely stable too. Given it is an election period with its share of weirdness, perhaps this is not quite the result you might have expected.

But it is not all good. Business activity contracted modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. After climbing into positive territory last month, the headline general business conditions index retreated rather sharply. New order levels fell, and shipments edged lower.

Canada's CPI inflation rate fell to 1.6% in September, from 2.0% in August. It is now at its lowest level since February 2021. Lower fuel costs drove the retreat. It seems more likely now that Canada's central bank will cut its 4.25% policy rate when it next meets on Thursday, October 24 (NZT). Maybe outsized cuts are coming there.

Japan industrial production is becoming quite volatile with big jumps followed by bit dips. The August data revealed a big dip, year-on-year. It is hard to know what to make of this new volatility. But overall it represents a sag.

In a bit of a surprise, EU industrial production jumped in August and by enough to take the year-on-year level above August 2023, a rare event. It was the best month-on-month jump in more than a year. The European service sector is doing better and enabling local factories with more orders.

In China, Bloomberg is reporting that tax authorities there are cracking down on offshore income earned by their wealthy. It has begun enforcing a long-overlooked tax on overseas investment gains. Some wealthy individuals in major Chinese cities were told in recent months to conduct self-assessments or summoned by tax authorities for meetings to evaluate potential payments, including those in arrears from past years, they reported. The move underscores growing urgency in Beijing to expand its sources of revenue as land sales tumble and growth slows.

And we probably should note that those grain commodity price falls we noted yesterday have gathered steam today.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.04% and down -8 bps from yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today at US$2661/oz and up +US$14 from this time yesterday.

Oil prices are down a sharpish -US$3.50 at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$74.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.8 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just over 69.2, and marginally lower from yesterday at this time.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,003 and up another +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at under +/- 2.4%.

Join us at 10:45am today when we will have full coverage of the Q3-2024 New Zealand CPI result, a crucial factor in setting monetary policy.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the world's second largest economy shows more signs of losing its expansion mojo

China's exports rose in September but at an unexpectedly slowish pace. They were expected to rise +6% from a year ago, but only rose +2.4%. This was the fifth consecutive month of export growth, though at the slowest pace since April. Cut price (dumped) steel exports were a factor, a trade that is worrying may countries. And as expected import growth was weak, barely more than a year ago and well less than the +0.6% rise expected.

China's new yuan loan growth also came in less than expected, rising almost +¥1.6 tln and much better than the 'modest' +¥1 tln in August. Banks are making more debt available. But it was a slower rise than the +¥1.9 tln expected. And in September 2023 they rose +¥2.3 tln, so well down on that basis too.

A lot now depends on issuing a lot more debt. Some this is an additional +¥9 tln is on the way, but to be fair much of that won't be direct commercial bank lending. But sovereign money-printing (bond issuance) may well flow though to this channel.

In a side note for China, we can report that their ETS carbon price rose to its highest-ever level yesterday, ¥103.5/tonne. The reason is that 'tougher' emissions standards are on the way there. But this ETS tax is low by New Zealand standards, equivalent to just NZ$24.40/tonne. Currently our ETS is pricing carbon at NZ$63/tonne. In the EU, that same price is €64.60/tonne (NZ$116). China's disincentive to pollute is cheap by comparison.

Singapore said it's economy grew +4.1% in Q3-2024 from a year earlier. That is its fastest pace in two years and accelerated from +2.9% growth in the Q2-2024 quarter.

Meanwhile in India, consumer inflation rose sharply in September to 5.5%, much higher than the August 3.7%. Driving this change were food prices, up at the rate of +9.2% in September and a far faster jump than the already-high +5.4% rise in August. This data may inhibit their central bank from starting an expected rate cut cycle. They have a mid-point inflation target of 4%.

In the US, recent days have brought sharpish falls in food commodity prices as it becomes clearer that US and international grain harvests will be very good this year. Wheat, soybean and corn prices are all falling on excess supply worries.

Overnight, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded. The prize was given to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for work that advanced the understanding of differences in prosperity between countries. Two are the authors of a book, 'Why Nations Fail'.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.12% and up +5 bps from yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today at US$2647/oz and down -US$10 from this time yesterday.

Oil prices are down -US$1.50 at just on US$74/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now at US$77.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.9 USc and down -20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 69.3, and marginally lower from yesterday at this time.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,786 and up +5.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.2%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news China's deflation Pressures keep on coming. And in the US disinflation rolls on, which they hope will end soon.

This coming week will be another one with chunky data releases. The biggest will be on Wednesday, our own CPI result for the Q3-2024 period (Markets expect 2.0%). That that will follow the Tuesday's update of the September REINZ results.

We won't be the only country reporting inflation data; we also get that from Canada, India and Japan this week. At the end of the week, the ECB will be reviewing its policy interest rate. And all week we will be getting American Q3 earnings reports.

China will report its Q3-2024 GDP result on Friday, likely to fall well short of its 5% target.

Over this weekend, China released sets of key data. The tiny bit of consumer price inflation they had disappeared in September, up now only +0.4% from a year ago. Beef, lamb, and milk prices all went backwards again. Their producer prices deflated at a faster rate. And we are now waiting for their new yuan loan data which isn't expected to be very strong (about +¥1 tln, and less than half the June level. So far, debt-induced growth hasn't worked).

Meanwhile Chinese Ministry of Finance officials announced some more modest steps to "support the economy" and signaled much more is to come. It was a much-anticipated set-piece that left observers, and markets, underwhelmed.

Key banks made simultaneous coordinated moves - signaled a while ago to be fair - to cut mortgage borrowing costs, as a practical measure to reduce the pressure on homeowner household budgets. They will come into effect in the last week of October.

And coming up some time this week, the Chinese central bank is expected to signal lower wholesale borrowing costs in its 1-Year MLF announcement.

In South Korea, they have started cutting their policy rates too, although not as aggressively as New Zealand. The Bank of Korea policy rate is now 3.25% after its first rate cut (-25 bps) since May 2020. That came after data showed their GDP shrank in Q2-2024 and their September inflation slowed to 1.6%, the lowest since February 2021.

India's industrial production took a surprise drop in August from a year ago, its first retreat since October 2022. Few saw that coming. And they downwardly revised the +4.7% rise in July.

Interestingly, the Indian currency is under pressure, and outflow levels have been high. The Indian rupee has hit a record low against the US Dollar, (but against the NZD it has been pretty flat since 2020).

In the US, producer prices hardly rose in September. US factory gate prices were flat in the month from August and missing expectations of a +0.1% rise. On an annual basis, PPI inflation eased to a 7-month low of 1.8%.

US consumer sentiment was little-changed in October according to the University of Michigan survey, holding at a level it has broadly been at since May. There was a slight dip from the prior month, something that is probably just related to election uncertainties.

For those who follow such things, we can report no surprises in the October update of the USDA WASDE report. But they did raise their beef import forecasts marginally again, and lowered their US milk production forecasts, again.

Canada reported a good +47,000 rise in employment in September, almost double what was expected. Better still, full-time jobs rose +112,000 while part-time roles shrank -65,000. Their jobless rate slipped to 6.5% when a rise was anticipated

Ratings agency Fitch has downgraded their sovereign rating for France from 'Stable' to 'Negative', but still at AA-. They say “Fiscal policy risks have increased since our last review". (Fitch have New Zealand at AA+, Stable.)

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.07% and unchanged from Saturday. A week ago it was at 3.99% so up +8 bps since then.

The price of gold will start today at US$2657/oz and down -US$3 from this time Saturday. That is up +US$8 from a week ago.

Oil prices are holding at just on US$75.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still at US$79/bbl. A week ago these prices were at these same levels, so no-change in a week.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.1 USc and downa minor -10 bps from this time Saturday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now at 69.3, and unchanged from Saturday at this time. But that is -40 bps lower than a week ago.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,627 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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