As the new year approaches, governments, corporations, and investors alike are asking: what will critical material supply chains look like in the year to come?

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss where global supply chains and diversification efforts stand today – and how they are likely to shape up in 2026.

Starting from the latest need-to-know specifics and working up to the broader strategic takes from Team Trivium, the lads discuss:

1. What's going on with China's general licenses and export trends
2. Trends and issues in US rare earth and broader critical mineral diversification efforts – including our take on the brand new international "Pax Silica" initiative
3. How the rest of the world is responding to all this, both reactively and proactively
4. How China is responding to global diversification efforts – including where it is and is not pushing back, and why

Putting it all together, they take a stab at framing the bigger strategic issues ahead.

• We've all heard plenty about the tactics of supply chain decoupling – e.g., China's from US chips and Dutch lithography machines, and the US's from China's processed critical minerals
• But this all begs key questions, like: What is a desirable end state for both sides? And what does "security" actually look like? (Hint: it's not full decoupling.)
• Despite the fierce problems at hand, the gents land on a surprisingly optimistic vision of where US-China relations could land in the next few years – a happy note on which to enter the holidays after a tumultuous year.