Xi Jinping’s growing diplomatic clout was on full display over the past week.

• Things kicked off in the Chinese port city of Tianjin, where Xi hosted the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
• The enduring image from that meeting will be a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, walking hand-in-hand with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – just before the two shared a hearty laugh with Xi.
• Over the next several days, Xi hosted a spate of key bilateral meetings with Global South leaders – the one-on-ones with India and Russia (again), alongside Malaysia, Indonesia, and North Korea stood out as particularly notable.
• And of course, on Wednesday, many of those same leaders joined Xi in Beijing for a huge military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the ending of the “Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression” – or what most of the world refers to as World War II.

The big question: Was all this pageantry simply good optics for the Chinese?

• Or will the past week mark a major turning point in China’s hoped-for shift to a New World Order?

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver hash it all out.

• They also talk through how to make small talk when a fellow authoritarian leader floats the idea of immortality.

China's stock markets have been on a tear over the last few months, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index – which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – up 25% since its low point in February.

• Beijing has wanted the market to rally for quite some time – but this upsurge has come as something of a surprise. 
• China’s economic fundamentals aren’t really conducive to a market recovery: deflation isn’t getting any better, consumer confidence is still weak, the property sector has been worsening, and local governments still aren’t paying their suppliers.

But Beijing is hoping that there's a real foundation to this rally – a foundation that it's responsible for building, quietly and gradually, over the past 18 months.

In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the recent market rally, as well as the changing role Beijing envisions for the stock market in the economy. 

They also explore Beijing's:

• Concept of a "slow bull market"
• And efforts to rebuild public trust in the market, to make it a worthwhile place to invest

China's export controls on rare earth elements have exposed major US supply chain vulnerabilities. 

Now the US is scrambling to plug the holes – and China is working to maintain its leverage.

• The big question is: how far will each side go in these efforts?

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, take stock of China's maturing export controls, the evolving US response, and where this all leads.

They break down:

• What China is doing to bolster its leverage
• Where the US side's response is succeeding and failing
• What a stable end-state might be for global manufacturing supply chains – balancing the upsides and downsides of Chinese supplies

The quest to understand Beijing's views on consumer spending continues. 

The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments.

• Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – as being an effort to boost consumption.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the idiosyncrasies of China's consumption policies.

They discuss:

• Why Beijing sees the path toward greater consumption as reliant on more investment
• Why consumption support efforts are increasingly pivoting toward services
• And why China's authorities have opted to dispense rebates on interest payments, rather than just cut interest rates outright

When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment. 

• Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy. 

The gents get into China's:

• Latest export miracle
• Persistently weak household consumption
• Efforts to deal with overcapacity

Then they wrap up with some thoughts about what to expect from economic policy for the rest of the year.

China and the US are both rapidly refining their approaches to global AI development, through newly released AI actions plans.

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss what’s in the latest plans.

The two discuss:

• The Trump administration’s pivot on chip sales to China, and the new guidance on chips laid out in the recently released US AI plan
• The conflicting messages on whether US export controls will loosen or tighten going forward – and Beijing’s perception of the issue
• How the US plans to get allied countries on board with its AI plan
• The competing visions around open-source AI development
• China’s pitch to the world for inclusive AI development, in its new AI plan
• And which horse the rest of the world will likely back, given the competing US and Chinese approaches

It’s good to be back!

• After taking an unscheduled break for a few weeks, we are glad to finally be back in your podcast feed!

Our apologies to listeners for the short hiatus, but this discussion was worth the wait. 

• Enjoy!

Is Beijing finally gearing up to address chronic oversupply – and resulting price wars – in its NEV and other cleantech sectors?

Trey McArver joins Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk this week to discuss just that question.

• Specifically, they examine what may be the early signs of a major policy shift – meant to break through the structural causes that keep industries from consolidating and zombie firms from exiting the market.

The two discuss:

• The most recent meeting of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs – which took direct aim at these issues
• Other signs that momentum is building for a more forceful approach
• The ongoing challenges that such a policy pivot would face
• Parallels between this moment and mid-2016 – the last time a significant new macro policy framework was rolled out

The gents also dive into their takeaways from the June Politburo meeting – as the Party looks to better coordinate its top policymaking bodies – and touch briefly on the latest rumors that Xi Jinping is losing his grip on power.

Spoiler alert: We don’t buy the rumors. 

It’s another fun one – so enjoy!

At the Lujiazui Financial forum in June, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech that we believe redefined Beijing's attitude toward RMB internationalization.

Since the policy was launched in 2009, RMB internationalization has been a struggle, with Beijing's commitment to maintaining capital controls making it difficult to claw market share from the dollar.

But Pan's comments suggest Beijing thinks things might be about to get easier – with global faith in the dollar starting to erode, countries and companies might soon start looking for viable alternatives.

• That could create an opportunity for the RMB – as long as China is ready to grab it.

In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the implications of Pan's comments, and the flurry of recent measures in support of RMB internationalization.

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) and Joe Mazur (Trivium’s head of geopolitical research) – who all got together in Beijing. 

The three discuss a variety of topics including:

• China’s improving consumer data
• The current vibes in Beijing, as tourists flock in
• The latest on US-China trade talks
• The latest on EU-China trade talks
• How China issues played into the G7 meetings in Canada

Come for the macro-econ data, stay for the geopolitical hot takes!

In the latest episode of the Trivium China podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss this week’s phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that appears to have gotten trade talks back on track, for now. 

The two discuss:

• The developments and misperceptions from both sides that almost derailed the Geneva truce over the past three weeks
• What we know about the Xi-Trump call, and what needs to happen next to keep things on track
• China’s perspective on its rare earth export controls – and how the slow-moving approval process is upending global manufacturing
• Potential paths forward to a lasting agreement around US-China trade
• The EU perspective on all this – and how US-China negotiations may leave Europe out in the cold

The upshot: US-China trade talks are currently in a much better place after the call than they were just a few days ago – but whether that will last is anyone’s guess.