The Trivium China Podcast

During Xi Jinping’s late-September visit to Washington, the US and China extended their trade truce – but more than a month later, there’s still no Federal Register notice or amended MofCom announcement formalizing it.

• Jessica DiCarlo, an assistant professor of geography at the University of Utah, calls this “managed interdependence,” not de-escalation.
• And she says the idea that Beijing can simply flip an on-off switch on minerals processing and shipments underappreciates the complexity of the sector’s regulation in China.

On this latest episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk and special co-host Cory Combs (Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) sit down with Jess (a scholar and co-founder of the Second Cold War Observatory) to unpack:

• Why China’s rare earth sector is regulatorily “fractured,” and how local officials, provinces, and firms – not just Beijing – shape what actually gets mined and shipped
• Why processing, not mining, is China’s genuine chokepoint
• How cobalt underscores the deep interconnection between China and other countries (e.g. the DRC) in the minerals space: about 96% of Congolese cobalt goes to China for processing
• Why China’s real edge may be guaranteed buyers up and down the supply chain, and why price swings keep sinking Western projects like Idaho’s cobalt mine
• The “minerals at the margins” – like hafnium, zirconium, boron, and beryllium – that may become strategically important, and why definitions of “critical minerals” keep changing
• Why the idea of a “just transition” for mineral mining belongs in the security debate, not on the sidelines

Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

China’s GDP growth rose to 4.5% y/y in Q3, after slipping to 4.3% in Q2. That puts it right at the bottom edge of Beijing’s 4.5–5% target range.

On the surface, that looks like a real pickup. A closer look tells a less encouraging story.

• Nearly all of the growth came from China’s record trade surplus, which rose almost 30% y/y. Consumption and investment added very little.
• Joe Peissel calls it “hollow growth.”

On this episode, Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) fills in for regular host Andrew Polk. He sits down with Joe (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack:

• Why nominal GDP grew 6%, its fastest pace since 2022, and why that comes from cost pressures caused by the Iran war rather than a healthier economy
• The price-versus-volume story behind September’s export boom
• Why September’s pickup in retail sales and services spending owes more to the iPhone 18 launch and an early Mid-Autumn holiday than to any real recovery in consumption
• Why Beijing’s latest support package, including its new mortgage subsidy, will help China hit its growth target but won’t fix weak demand
• And why Beijing’s bet that tech-led growth will eventually lift household spending isn’t paying off

On October 8, the PBoC published an essay – in both English and Chinese – defending China’s exchange rate policy and pushing back on foreign calls for the RMB to appreciate.

Just like MofCom’s July essay on overcapacity, the piece takes aim at the fundamental premise of Western policymakers’ complaints rather than answering them directly.

• Beijing has now taken two key economic issues that advanced economies keep raising – the currency and overcapacity – and essentially said “suck it up, we’re not changing.”
• The upshot: China is going to press this model until something breaks.

On this episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) to unpack:

• The PBoC’s three arguments defending its currency policy – from competitiveness to the lack of any agreed way to value a currency – and why Dinny thinks there’s some truth in each, while the essay as a whole “misses the wood for the trees”
• Why capital controls complicate the case for a stronger RMB: with deposit rates thin and property and stocks sagging, how much money would leave if China let it?
• The PBoC’s proposed fix: adjusting global imbalances by having deficit countries (read: the US) tighten their budgets while surplus countries like China boost consumption, and why Dinny calls this a pie-in-the-sky solution
• Why Beijing’s playbook with Europe looks like buying time, trading small concessions for room to keep its model intact

Back in July, when the Politburo met to discuss economic policy, officials signaled little more than incremental policy tweaks were on the horizon.

But fast forward to early October, and Beijing has rolled out a slate of support measures, including a fresh debt quota for local governments, more policy bank lending, and new interest subsidies for mortgages.

• Dinny McMahon calls it a clear pivot – Beijing is now more concerned about the economy than it was a couple of months ago.
• That said, the recent moves largely amount to a familiar Q4 policy top-up.
• Meanwhile, deleveraging – Dinny argues – is still on.

On this episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) to unpack:

• Why the most important measure in the latest suite of moves was letting local governments tap part of their stockpile of unused debt quotas – and why an RMB 550 billion release is still consistent with deleveraging
• How policy bank lending is being revived to fund Beijing’s investment in the “six networks,” and why local governments are struggling to find infrastructure projects that clear Beijing’s own bar for financing
• Why Beijing is subsidizing loan interest payments instead of cutting interest rates directly – and Dinny’s argument that the subsidies are partially a disguised method of recapitalizing the banks
• Why this support package won’t fix weak demand, but how it could still help by boosting infrastructure investment and helping overdue payments to firms land just before the critical Chinese New Year holiday period

For the first time in recent memory, a senior Chinese economic official is really pushing the idea that China needs to control its debt-to-GDP ratio.

• In a recent Qiushi essay, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng laid out why credit growth has to slow.

Trivium made this call back in July, when deleveraging sounded like a wild idea given how weak the economy is.

• Dinny McMahon’s take: “We feel quite validated.”

On this quick-reaction episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny (Head of China Markets Research) to unpack:

• The three conditions Beijing needs to enable deleveraging, and why the Iran war and the export boom checked two of them
• Where Beijing is already pulling back on borrowing: policy bank bonds, bankers’ acceptances, and special-purpose bonds
• Why Beijing cares so much: a debt-to-GDP ratio of 305%, up more than 50 points since 2021, and an aging population that will require borrowing capacity in the future
• The “sprint and reset” theory: Beijing is ratcheting investment down to a new base while exports hold up, and Dinny’s verdict that it’s making hay while the sun shines

When Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called on US labs to pace the AI frontier, Washington said no – and so did Beijing.

• In fact, Chinese state media outlet China Daily went further, calling Amodei’s suggestion a “self-serving bid for profit.”

The back-and-forth has led to an ongoing debate around whether China takes AI safety seriously.

• Kendra Schaefer’s take: China does take AI risk seriously – but what it won’t accept is the premise that its own progress is the problem.

On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra (Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research) to unpack:

• Why China’s response to the “pacing the frontier” debate looks dismissive on the surface, and why that reading misses how much AI regulation Beijing is already planning
• How pursuing open-weight models has become a geopolitical position for China, with roughly 70% of derivative models on Hugging Face now built on Chinese base models
• China’s new argument in the distillation fight: that banning it is an unfair trading practice and proof of US efforts to assert technological hegemony
• The one thing that could flip Beijing’s calculus on managing open-weight releases, a major security incident, and how China’s COVID-19 playbook suggests it would shut the door rather than share what happened
• Whether the new US-China AI safety dialogue, set to kick off in November, has any path forward

Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

From ports to lithium mines to diplomatic battles over Taiwan, China has spent two decades persistently building influence across Latin America and the Caribbean – one contract, one relationship, one chamber of commerce at a time.

• Leland Lazarus’s new book – Dragon in the Americas: China’s Power, Presence, and Regional Influence – argues this isn’t simply a trade story.
• It’s a long game, and China is getting more strategic and deliberate about how it plays it.

On the latest episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Leland – Founder and CEO of Lazarus Consulting and author of Dragon in the Americas – to unpack:

• Why ports are the “lungs” of a country, and why 37 of them across Latin America and the Caribbean are now funded, financed, or operated by Chinese firms
• Why the region’s own answer to the US-China rivalry mirrors an old Cold War approach from Barbados: “a friend to all, but a satellite of none”
• The story behind the Panama Canal controversy, and why it’s just the most visible example of a much bigger pattern
• How Chinese mining firms quietly bypassed national governments and went straight to local officials to lock up 60% of the world’s lithium reserves
• Why Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies in the region matter so much, and how far China is willing to go to flip them
• The darker edge of China’s presence in the region: Chinese criminal networks that have laundered an estimated $312 billion through the US financial system, with Latin America and the Caribbean becoming a central node

You won’t want to miss this wide-ranging discussion – and make sure to check out Leland’s book while you’re at it!

US President Donald Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday – a rare honor last extended to the Pope by Barack Obama.

The atmospherics of the greeting and the rest of Xi’s Washington trip were great. The actual deliverables of the visit were more muted.

• The one concrete outcome from Xi’s Washington visit was a two-month extension of the Busan trade truce, far short of the six-month floor most observers expected going in.

On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research, based in Beijing) to unpack:

• Why “healthy competition” is a subtly new phrase in Beijing’s playbook, and what the shift in rhetoric signals
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s cryptic comment that China proposed “a bigger deal” over the weekend, and what that might mean
• Why AI got an explicit shout-out in Xi’s comments during the bilateral meetings, and how managing the technology is becoming the new arms-control issue of the US-China relationship
• The risk nobody’s pricing in: If this meeting doesn’t build real momentum, the two follow-up meetings penciled in for later this year may just quietly fall off the calendar

Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

Back in 2017, China’s former SASAC chairman told Joerg Wuttke, then president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, precisely which industries China’s overcapacity machine would roll through next: EVs, batteries, solar, wind, basic chemicals.

Fast forward a decade, and it happened exactly as he predicted.

• Joerg’s very blunt take: “China, in essence, is kind enough to tell us when and how they’re going to roll over us.”

On this episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk, along with co-host Cory Combs, sits down with Joerg – now a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group – to unpack:

• Why “China Shock 2.0” isn’t really a shock at all, but a systemic feature of how Beijing plans its economy – which was written out in black and white years in advance
• The shipping container math that captures the trade imbalance better than any dollar figure: one container now leaves Europe for China for every four that come back
• Why Wuttke thinks a stronger renminbi, not tariffs, may be China’s real concession on the table before October’s EU-China trade negotiation deadline
• The key Chinese tech sector Wuttke says Europe should consider closing its market to (and it’s not the one you’d guess)
• Why demographic collapse, not trade policy, might ultimately be China’s biggest vulnerability – and Europe’s unlikely opportunity

This episode is another banger, y’all. You won’t want to miss it!

China’s manufacturing output just grew at the fastest pace in six months, but retail sales barely moved last month – and the gap between the two growth rates just hit its widest point in over three years.

The upshot: Exports are still picking up the slack.

• But an increasing chunk of China’s export growth is simply down to price increases, not rising volumes.
• So even that stalwart economic prop is starting to wobble.

On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack:

• Why the gap between factory output and consumer spending just hit a three-year high, and why Beijing’s own policy playbook keeps worsening the imbalance
• The hidden story in China’s “booming” exports: value is up 25%, but volumes for things like semiconductors and appliances are actually falling
• The one semi-bright spot in the monthly macro-econ data: infrastructure investment is declining at a slower pace (hurrah!)
• Why Beijing’s new interest-rate subsidy for consumers is aimed at the wrong problem entirely

Putting it all together: China’s economy will continue to decelerate into year-end.

Give it a listen and let us know what you think.