China’s economy has lost momentum after a surprisingly strong start to the year.

• But while many analysts are asking why Beijing isn’t doing more to stimulate growth, this week’s Trivium China Podcast explores a different question: why are policymakers deliberately choosing not to?

Pod host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to examine why Beijing may be quietly embarking on its first genuine economy-wide deleveraging effort in years, and what that could mean for China’s growth model.

The two discuss:

• Why recent weakness in investment, consumption, and the property sector won’t trigger a major stimulus package
• Whether Beijing’s annual fiscal "stimulus" has become more theater than meaningful economic support
• How slowing credit growth could signal a deliberate shift in macroeconomic strategy
• Why strong exports and rising inflation may have created a rare opportunity to reduce leverage
• Why policymakers appear to be prioritizing future borrowing capacity over stronger short-term growth

Andrew and Dinny also explore what slower credit growth means for businesses and investors and how Beijing's evolving priorities could complicate trade negotiations with Europe and other major trade partners.

China’s economy started 2026 with surprising momentum – but the latest monthly macro data underscores that many of the country’s underlying challenges remain firmly in place.

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to unpack the latest economic data and what it reveals about the increasingly uneven nature of China’s growth story.

The two discuss:

• Why China’s economy is increasingly operating on “two tracks”
• The continued boom in AI, semiconductors, clean energy, and export-oriented manufacturing
• Why much of the rest of the manufacturing sector is struggling
• The first year-on-year decline in retail sales since the pandemic
• What collapsing auto sales reveal about the limits of Beijing’s trade-in subsidy program
• Why consumer confidence continues to deteriorate despite policy support

Andrew and Joe also examine the growing constraints on policymakers as fiscal pressures mount across the country.

Overall, the discussion reveals an economy that remains remarkably strong in a handful of strategic industries – but increasingly fragile everywhere else.

It’s been a busy few weeks for Chinese diplomacy, with Xi Jinping making a rare trip to North Korea while tensions between Beijing and Brussels continue to climb over trade, industrial policy, and the future of Europe’s manufacturing base.

• On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur and Head of Clean Energy and EV Research Cosimo Ries to unpack these two critically important developments in China’s external relations.

First, Andrew and Joe break down Xi’s first trip to North Korea in nearly seven years and what it reveals about Beijing’s priorities amid shifting regional dynamics.

The two discuss:

• Why Xi chose North Korea for his first foreign trip of 2026
• China’s complicated relationship with its only formal treaty ally
• How North Korea’s growing ties with Russia are reshaping Beijing’s calculations
• What practical outcomes may emerge from the visit

Then, in the second half of the pod, Andrew, Joe, and Cosimo turn to Europe, where concerns about Chinese industrial competition are fueling calls for tougher trade and investment measures.

The conversation covers:

• Whether “China Shock 2.0” is the right way to think about Europe’s challenges
• Growing tensions between the EU and China over trade imbalances and industrial policy
• Why clean energy, EVs, and advanced manufacturing sit at the center of the dispute
• How Chinese companies are responding through localization and investment in Europe
• Whether Europe and China are headed toward a full-blown trade war – or a prolonged period of managed friction

As always, the guys cover a lot of ground, so sit back and enjoy!

China’s local governments have spent the past four years grappling with the fallout from the property market collapse. Land sales have dried up, fiscal pressures remain intense, and officials across the country are still searching for sustainable new sources of revenue.

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to discuss one of the most important – and least understood – developments in China’s fiscal landscape: asset revitalization.

The two unpack how local governments are increasingly turning underutilized state-owned assets into new revenue streams, and why the strategy may become a key pillar of Beijing’s broader effort to stabilize local finances.

Their conversation covers:

• Why local governments remain under severe fiscal pressure after the collapse of the property market
• What “asset revitalization” actually means in practice
• How provinces are monetizing everything from mining rights and industrial land to transport hubs and public facilities
• How several local governments are already generating meaningful new revenue from the strategy
• The role asset revitalization could play in easing local government austerity and supporting domestic demand
• The risks of self-dealing, hidden leverage, and unsustainable one-off transactions
• Whether asset revitalization can become a durable solution to China’s local government debt and revenue challenges

While asset revitalization is unlikely to solve China’s fiscal problems on its own, Andrew and Dinny argue it may be emerging as one of the most important pieces of the local government finance puzzle – and a development investors and China watchers should be following closely.

This week on the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis Joe Mazur to unpack one of the most consequential – and potentially misunderstood – issues emerging from the recent Xi-Trump summit: Taiwan.

While both Washington and Beijing have publicly insisted that little changed during the meeting, Joe argues that several comments from President Trump may signal a meaningful shift in how the White House approaches Taiwan – one that could introduce greater uncertainty into an already delicate cross-strait equilibrium.

The conversation explores:

• Why Trump's comments on Taiwan have generated concern despite official claims of policy continuity
• Whether the administration is beginning to treat arms sales to Taiwan as a broader negotiating tool in US-China relations
• How Beijing may interpret Trump's increasingly transactional approach to Taiwan
• Why even a simple phone call between Trump and Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te could trigger a major response from China
• The key signals analysts should watch for to determine whether Beijing's Taiwan policy is truly changing

Then, in the second half of the episode, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to examine an emerging priority in Beijing's economic strategy: "producer services." While the term may sound obscure, Dinny argues it sits at the heart of China's effort to move up the global value chain and build world-leading companies.

Their discussion covers:

• What producer services are and why Chinese policymakers are suddenly focused on them
• How Beijing hopes to create more Chinese versions of companies like Apple and NVIDIA
• Why Xi Jinping increasingly sees services as a way to strengthen – rather than replace – manufacturing
• The role of design, engineering, R&D, logistics, and branding in China's next stage of industrial development
• How producer services could help address China's youth unemployment challenge
• Whether AI will undermine Beijing's plans to create more high-value white-collar jobs

Taken together, the two conversations offer a window into how China's leaders are thinking about both the country's most sensitive geopolitical challenge and the next phase of its economic transformation.

It’s been a consequential week for US-China relations, as Xi Jinping and Donald Trump finally held their long-awaited summit in Beijing amid ongoing trade tensions, export control battles, and the fallout from the Iran war.

On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by special guest Jon Czin – the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution – to unpack what came out of the Xi-Trump meeting, what both sides were trying to accomplish, and where the relationship may go next.

Jon gets into:

• Why the current US-China situation is more temporary stalemate than budding stability  
• China’s evolving strategy for managing Trump and the broader bilateral relationship
• The significance of Beijing’s proposed framework for “Constructive Strategic Stability”
• How China views US leverage – and its own leverage – in trade, critical minerals, and supply chains
• How the Iran war is shaping the broader geopolitical context for US-China diplomacy

Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macroeconomic analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest batch of Chinese macro data, which showed a sharp slowdown in economic activity in April.

The two discuss:

• How the Iran war and supply chain disruptions are weighing on China’s industrial sector
• Why investment activity weakened more than expected last month
• The hidden policy changes dragging on infrastructure investment
• Continued weakness in Chinese consumption and consumer confidence
• What the latest data means for Beijing’s broader economic outlook

The long-awaited Xi Jinping–Donald Trump meeting has finally happened – but what, exactly, came out of it?

On the first part of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack the immediate takeaways from the leaders’ summit in Beijing.

The two discuss:

• Why the meeting was heavy on symbolism but light on concrete outcomes 
• The significance of China’s high-level diplomatic treatment of Trump 
• What to watch for on export controls and a possible extension of the Busan agreement 
• The prospects for a future “board of investment” mechanism governing US-China capital flows 
• How Iran and the Strait of Hormuz factored into the talks 

Andrew and Cory also assess why both sides appear eager to stabilize relations – even if major structural tensions remain unresolved.

Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to break down the PBoC’s latest quarterly monetary policy report and what it reveals about Beijing’s economic priorities.

The two discuss:

• Why the PBoC is signaling greater concern about currency stability 
• How the Iran war is reshaping China’s monetary policy calculus 
• Why interest rate cuts may now be less likely in 2026 
• Potential reforms to how mortgages are priced in China 
• Beijing’s intellectual defense of its export-led growth model 

It’s been another consequential week for China’s economy and foreign policy – with Beijing deploying its blocking rules for the first time ever in response to new US sanctions tied to Iranian oil purchases.

On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack what China’s latest legal and regulatory moves mean for the future of US-China economic competition and sanctions enforcement.

The two discuss:

• China’s first-ever use of its blocking rules
• Why Beijing reacted so strongly to new US sanctions on Chinese refiners
• The growing risks facing banks and firms caught between US and Chinese legal systems
• How China’s broader counter-sanctions toolkit is evolving
• Why uncertainty itself may be part of Beijing’s strategy

Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon and Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest signals from China’s economy following a surprisingly strong Q1.

The three discuss:

• Why China’s economy outperformed expectations early in the year
• How the Iran war is affecting inflation, exports, and industrial costs
• Beijing’s renewed push on infrastructure investment
• Why consumption remains the economy’s weakest link
• Whether China’s export machine can continue powering growth through the rest of 2026

Together, the conversations offer a timely look at how Beijing is navigating mounting geopolitical pressure while trying to keep the economy on track.

What happens when a Chinese AI startup tries to sell itself to a major US tech company, but Beijing decides it doesn’t like the deal?

In this week’s episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to unpack the latest in the Meta-Manus acquisition saga and what it reveals about China’s evolving approach to tech regulation and national security.

The two discuss:

• Why Chinese regulators ordered the Meta-Manus deal unwound
• How Beijing is using dormant foreign investment review powers in new ways
• The role of VIE structures and “Singapore washing” in cross-border tech deals
• China’s growing concerns around technology outflow
• What this all means for Chinese startups, founders, and the future of US-China tech competition

Andrew and Kendra also explore how both Washington and Beijing are increasingly converging around the same core question: who gets to control strategically important technology?

With the Xi-Trump meeting looming and the Iran situation changing every hour, how are China and the US trying to secure their respective interests?

This week, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk and Head of Supply Chain Research Cory Combs break down key dynamics – from:

• The evolving impacts of the Iran war and China's responses
• China's latest supply chain and anti-foreign coercion policies
• The US's ongoing mass-diversification push amid Chinese export controls
• US-China strategy as the leadership meeting approaches
• And more!

With both Andrew and Cory having just returned from ~6 weeks of travel, they take stock in a wide-ranging conversation – with many questions, but also a few proposed answers.