China's economy started the year off on the front foot – but fragilities remain just below the surface, and the war in Iran may put that early positive momentum to the test.

To discuss the latest dynamics driving the economy, and the potential…erm…hiccups it may face in the coming months, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined this week by two seasoned economists:

• Beijing-based China Economist at the Standard Bank Group, Jeremy Stevens
• And Trivium’s own lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel

The three run through the latest monthly macro data, discuss where key vulnerabilities are lurking, and look ahead to how the Iran situation may upend things, if and as it drags on.

There’s only one storyline that matters geopolitically right now, and that’s the ongoing war between the US and Israel and Iran.

Now in its third week, the war increasingly looks likely to be a protracted engagement, and as the conflict grinds on, the implications – both political and economic – for the many countries not involved in the fighting will become clearer.

• China, of course, has a wide-range of interests – both short- and long-term – that will be impacted by the situation.

To unpack the thinking around all of this in Beijing, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined on this week’s episode by two of Trivium’s lead analysts on all things geopolitics, trade, and commodities – Joe Mazur and Even Pay.

The trio gets into:

• China’s most immediate concerns – largely revolving around resource security
• How Beijing’s patient buildup of commodity reserves over the past decade has now been vindicated
• Whether Xi Jinping and company see any strategic upside from the confrontation
• What, if anything, Beijing can do to influence the outcome
• And what it all means – in China’s view – for the longer-term evolution of the geopolitical system

It’s another banger folks – you won’t want to miss it.

On this week’s edition of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is back with a gaggle of Trivium analysts to go deep on various aspects of the recently released 15th Five Year Plan (FYP).

The group covers a broad range of issues including:

• Key macroeconomic, development, and economic security goals
• The plan for industrial upgrading – and key priorities in upstream, midstream, and downstream industries
• The nexus of technological and industrial ambition
• How climate goals and industrial policy interact
• China’s latest efforts to solve its compute problem
• How innovation factors into goals for the healthcare and agriculture sectors

Just like the FYP itself, this conversation is wide-ranging and hits on a bunch of key policy themes that matter – both now and in the years ahead.

It’s been a big week in China, with the annual government meetings (aka the Two Sessions) kicking off to lay out key policy priorities for the year – and to drop a draft version of the 15th Five Year Plan (FYP).

• There’s a ton of policy to wade through in both the annual government work reports and the FYP – from macro, to tech, to healthcare, to bio-manufacturing, and more.

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by six different Trivium policy specialists to walk through their initial takes on what matters most in latest releases.

Then on the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Ilaria Mazzocco, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to discuss all the latest in the China electric vehicle (EV) space. Ilaria gets into:

• Successes and failures of Chinese industrial policy in supporting EVs
• The role of the private sector in realizing China’s EV dominance
• How countries throughout the world are responding to the Chinese EV juggernaut – from the US, to the EU, to a range of emerging markets – as they seek to protect or grow their own advanced manufacturing capabilities
• How it all plays into various national conceptions of economic security – in both China and the West

The conversation is a must listen for anyone who cares about the future of global electrification, as well as issues of economic security.

2026 has kicked off with a geopolitical bang – from US intervention in Venezuela to threats against Greenland to potential military action against Iran, not to mention the latest tariff turmoil following last week’s US Supreme Court ruling.

• All of this volatility – and what it might say about the role the US will play in the world going forward – can lead to some pretty lazy assumptions that China will automatically benefit by easily positioning itself as a stabilizing global force. 

But reality is more complicated: Chinese leaders are likely just as befuddled by the rapidly changing landscape as their counterparts in NATO.

On this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Jude Blanchette, director of the RAND China Research Center, to unpack how China actually sees “The Rupture” in global politics.

• This is a conversation you won’t want to miss.

But wait, there’s more! Before talking with Jude, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to discuss Beijing‘s recent focus on the need to “invest in people,” and the step-change that might signal for the buildout of China’s welfare state during the next five-year plan period.

It's been a while between trips, but last week Trivium's Head of Markets Research, Dinny McMahon, was back in Beijing.

In this podcast, he and Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk discuss Dinny's observations and takeaways from the trip.

After dissecting the vibe on the street, the gents get into:

• Where there might be some potential for investment growth this year
• Why the only thing that will unlock household spending is a housing market recovery

This one is short and sweet, so please enjoy this fun-sized pod. 

And a note to listeners: 

• The pod will be off for the Lunar New Year next week.
• But we'll be back in your feeds after the holiday with some exciting new content, so stay tuned!

US-China bilateral relations have, surprisingly, been an anchor of calm amidst a sea of geopolitical uncertainty in the opening innings of 2026.

• And increasingly, it looks like the seemingly fragile truce between the two countries will prove more resilient that it initially seemed – back when US President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade war détente in November.

To discuss the state of play – and where things might be going – Trivium China pod host Andrew Polk is joined this week by Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research) and Even Pay (Head of Ag and Trade Policy Research).

The trio discuss:

• The notable shift in tone and approach from the Trump administration toward China
• The latest Xi-Trump call, which took place this week
• The upcoming visit to China by Donald Trump, which is set for April
• Whether America’s more aggressive policy in the Western Hemisphere is hurting or helping China’s interests in the region

Then Andrew and Even go deep on the most important domestic policy development of the week, the release of the 2026 No. 1 Document, which outlines ag policy priorities for the year.

They touch on:

• Why ag and rural policies are so important to Party leaders
• The shift toward boosting efficiency and productivity in the ag sector – as part of Xi’s wider promotion of New Quality Productive Forces
• Recent adjustments to ag and rural policy funding arrangements, and what they might mean for China’s non-urban areas

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk speaks with our lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel, to take a quick temperature check of China’s latest macro data.

The two discuss:

• What the full-year 2025 data (released in mid-Jan) tells us about the state of play and the likely economic trajectory for 2026
• How the constituent parts of the economy – consumption, investment, and exports – are faring
• Whether the export machine can possibly go from strength to strength in 2026

Then Andrew is joined by pod regulars Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to examine the enduring headwinds to capital expenditure in China.

They get into:

• Whether the cratering in fixed asset investment (FAI) growth in H2 2025 was a one-off or is the new normal (spoiler alert: it’s probably the latter)
• Prospects for investment in a couple of key industries – autos and renewable energy
• How government policy might address the investment slide
• And where infrastructure spending fits in – particularly energy infrastructure, as it relates to the recently released massive spending plan from State Grid

It’s another wonk-fest, so lap it up you China nerds.

China’s financial regulators have started 2026 with a flurry of activity.

• On January 14, the securities regulator raised margin requirements on stock trading in a bid to cool investors’ exuberance.
• The following day the central bank expanded a bunch of its relending facilities, and cut the interest rate on all of its structural lending tools.
• Then on January 20, the finance ministry rolled out a bunch of measures designed to bolster investment by small, private sector firms.

What’s driving this hyperactive policymaking? That’s what Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss on the first Trivium podcast of 2026.

They look at:

• How weak Q4 economic data has lit a fire under regulators
• Why authorities have settled on this particular combination of policies
• And what signals Beijing is trying to send markets

But wait, there’s more! On the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by a new guest to the podcast, Trivium’s lead AI and semiconductor analyst Linghao Bao. Linghao joins to discuss:

• Beijing’s intervention in Meta’s recently announced acquisition of Chinese AI start-up Manus
• The specific regulatory tools China is using to slow – or maybe even stop – the deal
• The wider implications for China’s AI start-up ecosystem

The gents cover a lot of ground in this one – enjoy!

November economic data was a bit of a letdown, suggesting China’s economy is rapidly losing growth momentum.

• Fixed asset investment declined by double digits
• Industrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 months
• Retail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three years

But things aren’t as bad as they seem.

This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to dig into November’s economic data. The gents cover:

• China’s supply-side slowdown, and why it’s partially policy-driven
• Why China’s consumption dynamics are more resilient than headline data suggest
• The reason Beijing appears willing to tolerate a slight economic correction

Andrew and Joe then round things off by discussing China’s policy and economic outlook going into 2026.