The quest to understand Beijing's views on consumer spending continues. 

The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments.

• Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – as being an effort to boost consumption.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the idiosyncrasies of China's consumption policies.

They discuss:

• Why Beijing sees the path toward greater consumption as reliant on more investment
• Why consumption support efforts are increasingly pivoting toward services
• And why China's authorities have opted to dispense rebates on interest payments, rather than just cut interest rates outright

When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment. 

• Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy. 

The gents get into China's:

• Latest export miracle
• Persistently weak household consumption
• Efforts to deal with overcapacity

Then they wrap up with some thoughts about what to expect from economic policy for the rest of the year.

China and the US are both rapidly refining their approaches to global AI development, through newly released AI actions plans.

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss what’s in the latest plans.

The two discuss:

• The Trump administration’s pivot on chip sales to China, and the new guidance on chips laid out in the recently released US AI plan
• The conflicting messages on whether US export controls will loosen or tighten going forward – and Beijing’s perception of the issue
• How the US plans to get allied countries on board with its AI plan
• The competing visions around open-source AI development
• China’s pitch to the world for inclusive AI development, in its new AI plan
• And which horse the rest of the world will likely back, given the competing US and Chinese approaches

It’s good to be back!

• After taking an unscheduled break for a few weeks, we are glad to finally be back in your podcast feed!

Our apologies to listeners for the short hiatus, but this discussion was worth the wait. 

• Enjoy!

Is Beijing finally gearing up to address chronic oversupply – and resulting price wars – in its NEV and other cleantech sectors?

Trey McArver joins Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk this week to discuss just that question.

• Specifically, they examine what may be the early signs of a major policy shift – meant to break through the structural causes that keep industries from consolidating and zombie firms from exiting the market.

The two discuss:

• The most recent meeting of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs – which took direct aim at these issues
• Other signs that momentum is building for a more forceful approach
• The ongoing challenges that such a policy pivot would face
• Parallels between this moment and mid-2016 – the last time a significant new macro policy framework was rolled out

The gents also dive into their takeaways from the June Politburo meeting – as the Party looks to better coordinate its top policymaking bodies – and touch briefly on the latest rumors that Xi Jinping is losing his grip on power.

Spoiler alert: We don’t buy the rumors. 

It’s another fun one – so enjoy!

At the Lujiazui Financial forum in June, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech that we believe redefined Beijing's attitude toward RMB internationalization.

Since the policy was launched in 2009, RMB internationalization has been a struggle, with Beijing's commitment to maintaining capital controls making it difficult to claw market share from the dollar.

But Pan's comments suggest Beijing thinks things might be about to get easier – with global faith in the dollar starting to erode, countries and companies might soon start looking for viable alternatives.

• That could create an opportunity for the RMB – as long as China is ready to grab it.

In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the implications of Pan's comments, and the flurry of recent measures in support of RMB internationalization.

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) and Joe Mazur (Trivium’s head of geopolitical research) – who all got together in Beijing. 

The three discuss a variety of topics including:

• China’s improving consumer data
• The current vibes in Beijing, as tourists flock in
• The latest on US-China trade talks
• The latest on EU-China trade talks
• How China issues played into the G7 meetings in Canada

Come for the macro-econ data, stay for the geopolitical hot takes!

In the latest episode of the Trivium China podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss this week’s phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that appears to have gotten trade talks back on track, for now. 

The two discuss:

• The developments and misperceptions from both sides that almost derailed the Geneva truce over the past three weeks
• What we know about the Xi-Trump call, and what needs to happen next to keep things on track
• China’s perspective on its rare earth export controls – and how the slow-moving approval process is upending global manufacturing
• Potential paths forward to a lasting agreement around US-China trade
• The EU perspective on all this – and how US-China negotiations may leave Europe out in the cold

The upshot: US-China trade talks are currently in a much better place after the call than they were just a few days ago – but whether that will last is anyone’s guess. 

On this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleagues Kendra Schaefer (Trivium’s head of tech policy) and Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) to talk through the latest tech controls from the US on China – and China’s likely reaction.

The three discuss:

• The Trump administration’s move to restrict sales of electronic design automation (EDA) software to China
• The EDA landscape in China and whether Chinese tech firms can step in to fill this void in the semiconductor supply chain
• A spate of other US restrictions on chemicals for semiconductors, butane and ethane, machine tools, and aviation equipment
• How the Chinese will react to these moves, and what they suggest about the Trump administration’s internal coordination on China (or lack thereof)
• What it all means for the 90-day trade truce – and the prospects for wider tech and trade negotiations

This stuff is pretty wild – and pretty depressing – but stick with us to the end, because we at least try to close on an upbeat note. 

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s head of critical mineral and supply chain research, Cory Combs, to address the mounting confusion over whether and how China will ease off on its rare earth export curbs. 

The gents discuss:

• The implications behind China’s recent approval of a handful of rare earth magnet export licenses
• Whether China would consider removing rare earths from its dual-use export control list – spoiler alert: it won’t
• Reactions to supply chain disruptions from electronics companies, defense manufacturers, and the US national security realm
• China’s most recent threat to retaliate against companies that comply with US rules targeting Huawei chips via the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law
• The fragile nature of the 90-day US-China de-escalation, and what developments might derail the détente

Strap in, we go deep in the weeds in this one.

In this week’s pod, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk, Trey McArver, and Ether Yin all sat down together in DC to discuss the recent de-escalation in the US-China trade war.

• They guys also drilled down on China’s move to grant licenses for critical mineral exports to the US, as part of the temporary trade reprieve.
• And finally, the gents discussed where Beijing was really focused this week – deepening ties with Latin America.

You definitely won’t want to miss this one!