It's been a while between trips, but last week Trivium's Head of Markets Research, Dinny McMahon, was back in Beijing.

In this podcast, he and Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk discuss Dinny's observations and takeaways from the trip.

After dissecting the vibe on the street, the gents get into:

• Where there might be some potential for investment growth this year
• Why the only thing that will unlock household spending is a housing market recovery

This one is short and sweet, so please enjoy this fun-sized pod. 

And a note to listeners: 

• The pod will be off for the Lunar New Year next week.
• But we'll be back in your feeds after the holiday with some exciting new content, so stay tuned!

US-China bilateral relations have, surprisingly, been an anchor of calm amidst a sea of geopolitical uncertainty in the opening innings of 2026.

• And increasingly, it looks like the seemingly fragile truce between the two countries will prove more resilient that it initially seemed – back when US President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade war détente in November.

To discuss the state of play – and where things might be going – Trivium China pod host Andrew Polk is joined this week by Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research) and Even Pay (Head of Ag and Trade Policy Research).

The trio discuss:

• The notable shift in tone and approach from the Trump administration toward China
• The latest Xi-Trump call, which took place this week
• The upcoming visit to China by Donald Trump, which is set for April
• Whether America’s more aggressive policy in the Western Hemisphere is hurting or helping China’s interests in the region

Then Andrew and Even go deep on the most important domestic policy development of the week, the release of the 2026 No. 1 Document, which outlines ag policy priorities for the year.

They touch on:

• Why ag and rural policies are so important to Party leaders
• The shift toward boosting efficiency and productivity in the ag sector – as part of Xi’s wider promotion of New Quality Productive Forces
• Recent adjustments to ag and rural policy funding arrangements, and what they might mean for China’s non-urban areas

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk speaks with our lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel, to take a quick temperature check of China’s latest macro data.

The two discuss:

• What the full-year 2025 data (released in mid-Jan) tells us about the state of play and the likely economic trajectory for 2026
• How the constituent parts of the economy – consumption, investment, and exports – are faring
• Whether the export machine can possibly go from strength to strength in 2026

Then Andrew is joined by pod regulars Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to examine the enduring headwinds to capital expenditure in China.

They get into:

• Whether the cratering in fixed asset investment (FAI) growth in H2 2025 was a one-off or is the new normal (spoiler alert: it’s probably the latter)
• Prospects for investment in a couple of key industries – autos and renewable energy
• How government policy might address the investment slide
• And where infrastructure spending fits in – particularly energy infrastructure, as it relates to the recently released massive spending plan from State Grid

It’s another wonk-fest, so lap it up you China nerds.

China’s financial regulators have started 2026 with a flurry of activity.

• On January 14, the securities regulator raised margin requirements on stock trading in a bid to cool investors’ exuberance.
• The following day the central bank expanded a bunch of its relending facilities, and cut the interest rate on all of its structural lending tools.
• Then on January 20, the finance ministry rolled out a bunch of measures designed to bolster investment by small, private sector firms.

What’s driving this hyperactive policymaking? That’s what Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss on the first Trivium podcast of 2026.

They look at:

• How weak Q4 economic data has lit a fire under regulators
• Why authorities have settled on this particular combination of policies
• And what signals Beijing is trying to send markets

But wait, there’s more! On the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by a new guest to the podcast, Trivium’s lead AI and semiconductor analyst Linghao Bao. Linghao joins to discuss:

• Beijing’s intervention in Meta’s recently announced acquisition of Chinese AI start-up Manus
• The specific regulatory tools China is using to slow – or maybe even stop – the deal
• The wider implications for China’s AI start-up ecosystem

The gents cover a lot of ground in this one – enjoy!

November economic data was a bit of a letdown, suggesting China’s economy is rapidly losing growth momentum.

• Fixed asset investment declined by double digits
• Industrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 months
• Retail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three years

But things aren’t as bad as they seem.

This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to dig into November’s economic data. The gents cover:

• China’s supply-side slowdown, and why it’s partially policy-driven
• Why China’s consumption dynamics are more resilient than headline data suggest
• The reason Beijing appears willing to tolerate a slight economic correction

Andrew and Joe then round things off by discussing China’s policy and economic outlook going into 2026.

As the new year approaches, governments, corporations, and investors alike are asking: what will critical material supply chains look like in the year to come?

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss where global supply chains and diversification efforts stand today – and how they are likely to shape up in 2026.

Starting from the latest need-to-know specifics and working up to the broader strategic takes from Team Trivium, the lads discuss:

1. What's going on with China's general licenses and export trends
2. Trends and issues in US rare earth and broader critical mineral diversification efforts – including our take on the brand new international "Pax Silica" initiative
3. How the rest of the world is responding to all this, both reactively and proactively
4. How China is responding to global diversification efforts – including where it is and is not pushing back, and why

Putting it all together, they take a stab at framing the bigger strategic issues ahead.

• We've all heard plenty about the tactics of supply chain decoupling – e.g., China's from US chips and Dutch lithography machines, and the US's from China's processed critical minerals
• But this all begs key questions, like: What is a desirable end state for both sides? And what does "security" actually look like? (Hint: it's not full decoupling.)
• Despite the fierce problems at hand, the gents land on a surprisingly optimistic vision of where US-China relations could land in the next few years – a happy note on which to enter the holidays after a tumultuous year.

At the end of each year, China's top economic policymakers get together for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) to discuss their goals for the year ahead.

This year's CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins-and-outs of the meeting's official readout.

Warning: The readout from the CEWC is invariably a big-picture policy document that's frustratingly thin on detail.

• Deciphering what the leadership means takes a little bit of reading between the lines.

And that's exactly what the gents do!

They start off with their 30,000-foot takeaways (TL;DR: Beijing envisions 2026 looking a lot like 2025).

Then they get into:

• Where we might expect extra government spending
• Whether Beijing will double-down on the consumer goods trade-in program
• How Beijing intends to boost consumption

In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name…

And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, talk all things involution. The gents discuss:

• How the concept of involution differs from that of overcapacity
• Why Beijing doesn’t think overcapacity can exist in a global free market
• What Beijing’s anti-involution efforts look like
• And what it all means for the rest of the world

Then, Andrew wraps things up with a brief rundown of the most recent developments in the US-China trade truce.

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, your loyal Trivium team digs into China’s key domestic and regional developments from the past few days.

First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:

• The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systems
• Xi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the various rules that govern Party and government behavior
• China’s related efforts to build out its foreign-facing legal toolkit

The gents then move on to examine the intensifying diplomatic row between China and Japan – and why both sides are unlikely to climb down.

Then, in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to discuss:

• The recent, and curious, drop-off in fixed asset investment (FAI) in China, why it’s happening, and what it means for the wider macro-economic growth trajectory heading into 2026

Fair warning: This one gets pretty wonky!

With the US and China having agreed to a détente over trade, now is a good time to take a step back from the day-to-day back-and-forth of measures and countermeasure, and look at the longer term implications of China’s new economic model for trade.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, kick off by discussing China’s surprisingly bleak October economic data, before wading into big picture trade issues.

They discuss:

• How China intends to maintain export growth in the face of rising trade tensions
• Whether the world is facing a China Shock 2.0, and how it will differ from the first China Shock
• And how countries might adapt to expanding exports of Chinese advanced manufactured goods