In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name…

And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, talk all things involution. The gents discuss:

• How the concept of involution differs from that of overcapacity
• Why Beijing doesn’t think overcapacity can exist in a global free market
• What Beijing’s anti-involution efforts look like
• And what it all means for the rest of the world

Then, Andrew wraps things up with a brief rundown of the most recent developments in the US-China trade truce.

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, your loyal Trivium team digs into China’s key domestic and regional developments from the past few days.

First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:

• The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systems
• Xi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the various rules that govern Party and government behavior
• China’s related efforts to build out its foreign-facing legal toolkit

The gents then move on to examine the intensifying diplomatic row between China and Japan – and why both sides are unlikely to climb down.

Then, in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to discuss:

• The recent, and curious, drop-off in fixed asset investment (FAI) in China, why it’s happening, and what it means for the wider macro-economic growth trajectory heading into 2026

Fair warning: This one gets pretty wonky!

With the US and China having agreed to a détente over trade, now is a good time to take a step back from the day-to-day back-and-forth of measures and countermeasure, and look at the longer term implications of China’s new economic model for trade.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, kick off by discussing China’s surprisingly bleak October economic data, before wading into big picture trade issues.

They discuss:

• How China intends to maintain export growth in the face of rising trade tensions
• Whether the world is facing a China Shock 2.0, and how it will differ from the first China Shock
• And how countries might adapt to expanding exports of Chinese advanced manufactured goods

Confusion around what China has officially agreed to in terms of pausing its rare earths, and other critical mineral, export controls persists – even as we are a week out from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s trade agreement in South Korea.

Significant discrepancies remain between official statements from the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce on the issue.

• Meanwhile, officials and commercial players on both sides of the Pacific are reporting significant differences around their expectations for how quickly, and abundantly, rare earths and other critical minerals will flow from China.

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleague Cory Combs to lay out their latest understanding of the issue. The two discuss:

• The key discrepancies between US and Chinese statements on the export control pause
• How political messaging from the White House is adding to the confusion for businesses
• And whether the political will exists for both sides to fully align on the details – and to maintain the trade ceasefire for a full year

Andrew and Cory then move on to examine the growing debate in Washington around how quickly the US can fully end its reliance on China for rare earth supplies. Cory gets into:

• What a realistic timeline for ending reliance on China would look like
• The reasons the US found itself in this situation in the first place
• Benchmarking how quickly China can build new rare earths processing facilities – as a baseline for the potential US build out
• The highly technical aspects of rare earths processing that will ultimately determine success or failure

It’s another fascinating discussion from the fine folks on the Trivium team – you won’t want to miss it!

Also, check out this excellent paper by Jessica DiCarlo, Cory Combs, and Raphael Deberdt that Cory mentions in the show: Fractured Extraction: Mining Firms, Provinces and Municipalities in the Decentralized Politics of China’s Rare Earth Production

It was another monumental week on the China front.

• On Tuesday, the Party released its sprawling 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) Proposals – laying out the sheer scale of Xi Jinping’s policy ambitions over the next half-decade
• Then on Thursday, Xi and US President Donald Trump got together in South Korea – their first meeting in six years – and agreed to a year-long ceasefire in the trade war

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer and Dinny McMahon to break it all down.

That’s right folks, this episode is a two-fer.

Andrew and Kendra start off by discussing:

• The details of the trade agreement, as we know them
• What China thinks it got out of the deal
• The pros and cons of the one-year timeframe
• Future tripwires that could set things back on an escalatory spiral

Kendra then touches on her key takeaways from the 15th FYP Proposals, when it comes to China’s tech ambitions, before Dinny joins the pod to walk through:

• The headline macro takeaways from the FYP Proposals
• Chinese leaders’ sense of urgency over the next five years
• How policymakers are thinking about consumption’s role in the economy
• China’s more assertive position on the world stage

It’s another solid episode, folks, so enjoy!

Alright folks, this one is a banger.

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined first by colleagues Dinny McMahon and Joe Peissel. The three discuss:

• The most recent China macro data
• Economic headwinds and tailwinds as we move into 2026
• Their early read of the 4th Plenum – and Xi Jinping’s make or break moment with the upcoming Five-Year Plan

Andrew is then joined by a very special guest – US-China Business Council President Sean Stein. They get into:

• How US businesses are navigating the uncertainty of the US-China relationship
• How the fentanyl issue offers the most promising path toward building trust
• The impact of the BIS’ new 50% rule on corporate compliance
• Why US companies still value the China market (The reasons might surprise you!)

It’s so good you’ll want to listen to it twice.

By the by: The fellas mention this report in the pod, which is very much worth checking out, as well: China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035

It’s been a frenetic and exhausting couple of weeks on the US-China front.

After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days.

• At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fragile and will remain highly volatile.

To discuss where things currently stand, how we got here, and where we are going, this week’s pod features Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver.

The gents get into everything we know, everything we think we know, and everything we definitely don’t know about what’s next for US-China negotiations.

Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.

On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.

• The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.

Unsurprisingly, on Friday, US President Donald Trump responded to the move by applying a new 100% tariff to imports from China – and promised to implement an unspecified set of new export controls on US software.

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to go through it all. Specifically, the two discuss:

• The key details of China’s export control expansion
• What’s new, and what’s not in these controls
• Beijing’s seeming motivation in implementing these controls now – which we argue goes beyond the immediate US-China trade negotiations
• How the near-term practical impacts of these controls are likely to be minimal – even if the medium-term implications are huge
• Whether China has the capacity to enforce long-arm jurisdiction
• What all this means for ongoing US-China talks

The gents end the discussion by walking through Trivium’s work projecting which critical minerals are likely to be controlled next by China.

• For anyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve on China’s upcoming moves on this front – you’ll definitely want to listen to the end.

Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you!

In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office.

• Gerard is one of the sharpest minds out there when it comes to the global implications of what's happening in China's economy.

The conversation starts with Gerard explaining what he means when he makes the observation that China's economy is currently "both strong and weak at the same time."

The gents then discuss Gerard's recent work assessing where exports previously bound for the US are now heading, and also talk through how falling prices have managed to keep Chinese exports buoyant.

• Finally, they get into China's anti-involution push and where Beijing might be taking it.

Interested in Gerard's work? We highly suggest you check out his recent piece for the China Leadership monitor, "Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War."

Chinese policymakers are looking to diffuse AI into key industrial, commercial, and governance fields as deeply and quickly as possible.

The overarching framework for their approach is captured in the AI+ plus initiative.

• Officials published the overarching policy architecture for AI+ in late August.
• And more granular AI+X plans (e.g. AI+Energy, AI+Transportation) are now starting to roll out.

In this week’s podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer (head of tech policy research) and Cory Combs (head of critical mineral and supply chain research) to explain China’s AI+ approach.

They delve into:

• The overarching AI+ framework – and how it differs from previous AI policies in China
• The six key fields that China is targeting for AI diffusion
• What to expect as the AI+ policy ecosystem takes shape in the months ahead
• China’s AI+Energy plan – what it seeks to achieve and why it is so fundamental to the wider AI+ vision
• How officials will approach more foundational aspects of AI+ – including foundational models, compute, data supply, developer ecosystems, and talent

The gang then wrap up the discussion by zeroing in on why the AI race is different from previous global competitions to produce technological breakthroughs.

• The key point: Achieving AI breakthroughs will look more like past pushes into electrification and the internet – as opposed to the nuclear weapon or space races.

You’ll definitely want to stick around till the end for this one – enjoy!