The Trivium China Podcast

By Trivium China

Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, techn

... more

· News

1111 ratings

FAQs about The Trivium China Podcast:

How many episodes does The Trivium China Podcast have?

The podcast currently has 87 episodes available.

Best of The Trivium China Podcast

The most played episodes among Podcast App listeners.

Number 1: Ep 84 - Nobody knows where the line is, and that’s the problem
The US and China have been quietly testing each other’s limits all summer – and neither side actually knows where the breaking point is. To discuss the nature – and limits – of the fragile US-China economic détente, we are joined this week by Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair and Director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.Evan’s read: The US-China relationship is at an unstable equilibrium, and in for a snapback toward a much more contentious state of play. In this episode, host Andrew Polk and Trivium colleague Cory Combs sit down with Evan to unpack:Why Xi Jinping’s upcoming state visit to Washington, the first in over a decade, may be the one thing still holding the relationship togetherHow the trade war became a supply chain war back in April 2025, and why tariffs aren’t the main event anymoreWhy China keeps reaching for chokepoints tied to US national security instead of hitting the broader economy, and what that reveals about Beijing’s actual theory of leverageThe uncomfortable new front opening up: Beijing increasingly penalizing American companies for the crime of complying with US lawsIt’s another great discussion, so enjoy!
September 04, 202653min
Number 2: Ep 82 - Another grim month for the Chinese economy
China’s July macro data just landed, and the title of our monthly macro note says it all: “A Grim Picture.”Consumption, investment, and property all deteriorated further last month – and the two props that supported the economy in the first half of the year are now fading fast.On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack:How July’s slowdown was broad-based, across nearly every metric that matters – and why growth looks even worse than the headlines suggestHow the K-shaped economy has spread from output into investment flows, entrenching the divide between booming and struggling sectorsWhy deflation, not inflation, remains the real danger for a heavily indebted economy like China’s – as officials are having to quietly pick their poisonWhy even China’s 24% y/y export growth print obscures a much less impressive reality, once you separate price from volume
August 20, 202638min
Number 3: Ep 83 - Beijing's new directive to its tech firms: behave abroad
Chinese tech companies keep getting fined and blocked overseas – sometimes unfairly, and sometimes because they’re behaving exactly like they do at home.Beijing just released a plan to fix both problems at once.Our take: “China’s nefarious plan to get its companies to obey overseas laws” is a Foreign Affairs headline just waiting to be written. On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra Schaefer (Head of Tech Policy Research) to unpack:Why lumping AI labs, e-commerce platforms, and cybersecurity firms into the single regulatory category of “cyberspace enterprises” is a bigger deal than it soundsThe story behind AliExpress’s EUR 550 million EU fine, and why Chinese companies keep getting tripped up by rules they don’t fully understandOne vague line in the CAC’s latest policy doc that might matter most: Beijing says it will “regulate the overseas competitive behavior” of its own tech firms, with zero detail on howWhy cleaning up Chinese tech companies’ act abroad might get Beijing branded as the bad guy either way
August 28, 202628min
Number 4: Ep 81 - The AI loophole Washington can’t afford to close
Chinese companies can’t legally buy the most advanced US-made AI chips, so they’re renting them instead – from data centers in Thailand, Malaysia, and beyond – completely legally.US policymakers know about the issue – but several years into the implementation of export controls on advanced chips, they still haven’t closed it.And there’s a reason for that.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Tom Nunlist (Associate Director, Tech Practice, Shanghai) to unpack:How Kimi K3’s release forced Washington to confront a loophole in export controls it’s known about for agesWhy renting chips sits completely outside the rules that govern buying them, even when the end result is identicalWhy closing this gap risks a “double win” for Beijing: 1) marketing material to court the Global South with China’s AI stack and 2) and potential leverage to retaliate with rare earths, ultimately causing the US to back downWhy cutting off compute access could undermine trust in the US AI stack, like sanctions have eroded trust in the US dollar – and why that risk may be exactly what’s keeping policymakers’ finger off the trigger
August 17, 202632min
Number 5: Ep 86 - The weaknesses behind China's booming exports
China’s manufacturing output just grew at the fastest pace in six months, but retail sales barely moved last month – and the gap between the two growth rates just hit its widest point in over three years. The upshot: Exports are still picking up the slack.But an increasing chunk of China’s export growth is simply down to price increases, not rising volumes.So even that stalwart economic prop is starting to wobble.On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack:Why the gap between factory output and consumer spending just hit a three-year high, and why Beijing’s own policy playbook keeps worsening the imbalanceThe hidden story in China’s “booming” exports: value is up 25%, but volumes for things like semiconductors and appliances are actually fallingThe one semi-bright spot in the monthly macro-econ data: infrastructure investment is declining at a slower pace (hurrah!)Why Beijing’s new interest-rate subsidy for consumers is aimed at the wrong problem entirelyPutting it all together: China’s economy will continue to decelerate into year-end. Give it a listen and let us know what you think.
September 18, 202631min