China’s approach to economic retaliation against the US continues to evolve, with the past 10 days seeing a new round of critical mineral export controls and the launch of an anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia.

This week Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research Cory Combs to go through all the latest.

The gents discuss:

• The details of China’s latest export controls on critical minerals
• China’s evolving approach to economic retaliation against the US
• Why we all should have seen this coming
• The most likely minerals next on China’s export control list
• China’s new long-arm jurisdiction approach to enforcement of export controls
• The anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia – and the likely options moving forward

One key takeaway: The timing of these most recent moves by China – as the Biden administration winds down and the Trump administration gears up – seems particularly canny.

• Biden can do little to respond.
• And Trump has no incentive to respond, at least not at this point.

The upshot: China appears to be signaling to Trump that it is better prepared to fight back on the trade and tech war fronts this time around.

• So your move, Mr. Trump!

As the year draws to a close, it’s time for economic forecasts!

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what they expect from China’s economy in 2025.

• To do so, they dive into their expectations for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), the annual year-end gathering of China’s top economic policymakers, expected to take place next week.

The gents discuss their predictions for what the CEWC will decide regarding key policy settings for 2025, including:

• Interest rates
• The exchange rate
• Fiscal spending

Xi Jinping had a busy week of diplomacy in South America, and in this episode of the Trivium China podcast we get into all of it.

Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:

• Xi Jinping’s diplomacy in Latin America – and how that fits into China’s wider geopolitical strategy
• China’s courting of the Global South in an age of US protectionism
• The remarkably creative approach that Chinese officials seem to be prepping as a second US-China trade war looms
• What to watch as China's approach to the US unfolds in the years ahead

On November 8, China finally unveiled its long-awaited fiscal stimulus package.

• It fell well short of expectations and raised plenty of new questions about how Beijing is dealing with the economy.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ways in which the package disappointed them and what they think comes next.

They delve into:

• What the package means for financial stability and local government austerity policies
• What additional fiscal support we can expect in the new year
• Why the package undershot expectations

They also spend some time discussing Beijing's uninspired response to weak household spending, and whether authorities have misdiagnosed a structural problem as cyclical.

In this week’s policy discussion, your friendly Trivium China team takes a step back to look at how China’s approach to economic coercion is evolving.

Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver to examine how Chinese officials have steadily built up robust countersanctions and export control regimes to hit back against perceived US economic aggression.

They start by looking at the latest restrictions on US drone maker Skydio under the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law and also discuss recent moves to:

• Undertake an Unreliable Entity List investigation into PVH Group, the US parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, for complying with the US Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act
• Potentially begin a cybersecurity review of Intel’s products in China
• Conduct a cybersecurity review of US chipmaker Micron’s products in China
• Bolster the wider export control regime

The upshot: Chinese officials appear to be going on the offensive with their countersanctions and export control regimes.

Andrew and Trey discuss what it all means for foreign companies in China, US-China relations under a second Trump administration, and the broader securitization of the global economy.

After waiting over a month for a stimulus package from Beijing, we now know when to expect it – November 8, at the conclusion of a meeting by the legislature’s (NPC) standing committee.

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, discuss what’s likely to be in the stimulus package and where it might prove surprising.

They also discuss how the upcoming US Presidential election factors into Beijing’s policy making, and whether it might influence the stimulus package.

The economic print for the third quarter of 2024 was pretty bad.

• But even among all the grey clouds, there were some silver linings in the numbers.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, walk through the good and the bad of China’s most recent macro data.

They then discuss a recent essay by Liu Yuanchun, China’s most influential economic advisor, about the rationale behind recent support measures, and why the support amounts to more than just stimulus.

The gents also discuss:

• Why it’s taken Beijing so long to commit to providing stimulus
• What can we expect from monetary policy in the year ahead

It’s been a busy couple of weeks for China’s regulators. In quick succession there have been press conferences hosted by the economic planner (NDRC), Ministry of Finance (MoF), and housing ministry (MoHURD).

• Yet none of them have delivered what everyone’s waiting for: stimulus.

Of course, as is always the case, the devils in the detail – and the regulators left out a lot of detail.

In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, discuss what was announced at the MoF and MoHURD press conferences.

• They then get into the potential shape of what the stimulus package will look like, and what they’re hoping for.

The big story out of Beijing this week has been fiscal stimulus: it didn’t materialize on Tuesday at the economic planner’s (NDRC) press conference, and now all eyes are on the finance ministry’s (MoF) press conference on Saturday.

In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, talk all things stimulus, covering:

• The likely timing of the much-anticipated fiscal stimulus
• How much might be rolled out
• And how it will be used

Finally, they get into the constraints holding Beijing back from doing more.

It’s been a BIG week for economic policy in China.

• On September 24, the central bank (PBoC) rolled out a range of monetary support measures to bolster the economy, boost share prices, and provide property developers with financial relief.
• On September 26, the Politburo surprised everyone by dedicating its September meeting to the economy, with the meeting readout strongly hinting that more fiscal support is coming.

In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Head of China Markets Research Dinny McMahon discuss:

• Why rates were cut, even after the PBoC said cuts are increasingly difficult
• The implications of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and why PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng took the unusual step of providing forward guidance about a potential additional cut
• Why the PBoC is prepared to throw up to RMB 2.4 trillion in central bank funding into the stock market
• What a fiscal stimulus from Beijing might look like