Today, Les, Jamil, and Jess break down Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s sweeping victory in a snap election, a historic result that gives the Liberal Democratic Party a two-thirds majority in the lower house for the first time since World War II. The outcome dramatically strengthens Takaichi’s political mandate and opens the door to significant shifts in Japan’s national security policy. With a strong working relationship with Washington, the moment may be ripe for deeper U.S.–Japan coordination and a stronger coalition to counter China’s growing military power, including its rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal.

While Takaichi now has the authority to act on national security issues, economic concerns are what drove voters to the polls. Can she deliver economic results while advancing a more assertive defense agenda? And as China pushes regional red lines, how will Japan balance domestic pressures with the strategic realities ahead?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@lestermunson

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Today Jess, Les, Morgan, and Matt unpack the expiration of New START, the 2010 arms control treaty long described as the last remaining guardrail on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.  Washington and Moscow together hold roughly 85% of the world’s nuclear weapons but Russia has proven an inconsistent arms control partner, raising questions of what, if anything, comes next. 

Is negotiating a new agreement worthwhile if Russia and China show little interest in being constrained?  What would a credible next framework need to include? And absent a formal treaty, what informal mechanism can realistically prevent a new arms race?

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@WMattHayden

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Today, Morgan, Jamil, Les, and Andy survey a busy week in the Western Hemisphere, as the Trump administration sharpens its focus closer to home. President Gustavo Petro’s visit to the White House signaled a thaw in U.S.–Colombia relations, with renewed counternarcotics cooperation and discussions around exporting Venezuelan natural gas to Colombia. Meanwhile, Panama’s Supreme Court annulled a contract allowing a Hong Kong–based company to operate ports at the Panama Canal, prompting sharp warnings from Beijing and aligning closely with Washington’s push to limit China’s influence in the region.

Are these signs that the U.S. is finally reasserting itself in the Western Hemisphere? Is the message landing with China and Russia as Washington draws firmer lines around the Panama Canal, Venezuela, and regional security? And after years of U.S. neglect that allowed Beijing to become a top trading partner for many Latin American countries, can renewed attention actually push adversaries out and deliver lasting influence?

Check out these sources that shaped our Fellows’ discussion: 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-calls-panama-court-ruling-ck-hutchison-port-contracts-shameful-pathetic-2026-02-03/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-meet-colombian-president-gustavo-petro-venezuela-nicolas-maduro-rcna257101 

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@jamil_n_jaffer

@lestermunson

@andykeiser

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Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Matt turn to Sudan, where a brutal civil war has entered its third year and now stands as one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes. As fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces continues to displace millions and drive staggering civilian casualties, regional powers are deepening their involvement. With Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, and others backing opposing sides, the conflict is increasingly shaped by proxy warfare and emerging military technologies.

What does this escalating proxy fight mean for U.S. interests? As Washington pulls back traditional aid tools and shifts its foreign policy posture toward trade and economic leverage, does the U.S. still have influence in a conflict this severe? How should policymakers think about Sudan’s strategic geography, especially as China and Russia look for openings to expand their footprint? And in a war where outside actors fuel the violence but Sudanese leaders bear responsibility, what role, if any, should the United States play?

Check out these sources that shaped our Fellows’ discussion: 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/general/sudan-humanitarian-situation-is-worst-crisis-of-2025/ar-AA1SIQ00?ocid=BingNewsVerp

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/sudans-war-torn-capital-sees-commercial-flight-land-129749973 

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/world/africa/egypt-sudan-drones.html 

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@jamil_n_jaffer

@NotTVJessJones

@WMattHayden

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Fault Lines Episode 551: Between Rhetoric and Reality: What’s Going on in Iran

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Matt, and Jess take a closer look at Iran, where widespread unrest continues largely out of view. Reports suggest protests have erupted in hundreds of cities, with tens of thousands killed or detained as the regime has tightened control, shut down the internet, and doubled down on its support for the Ayatollah. As Europe moves to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization and U.S. naval forces operate nearby, President Trump has issued stark warnings, calling on Tehran to end its nuclear ambitions and stop killing protesters, while hinting at behind-the-scenes contact with Iranian interlocutors.

What happens now? Is this another wave of protests destined to be crushed without meaningful international support, or is there a real window for outside pressure to make a difference? What does Trump mean when he says “help is coming,” and does credibility suffer if that help never materializes? Is the United States prepared to act, or content to wait and see yet again?

@morganlroach

@jamil_n_jaffer

@NotTVJessJones

@WMattHayden

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Today, Jess, Les, Morgan, Andrew, and Amy break down the National Defense Strategy released last Friday, the Pentagon’s core blueprint for deterring adversaries and preventing conflict. Issued just weeks after the White House rolled out its National Security Strategy, the NDS reinforces familiar themes: deterring China through strength rather than conflict, pushing allies and partners to shoulder more regional security burdens, prioritizing the Western Hemisphere, and revitalizing the U.S. defense industrial base. 

Does the strategy signal a meaningful pivot toward de-escalation with China? Can U.S. allies and partners realistically fulfill the burden-sharing roles the strategy assigns them? And as sovereignty, trade, and security increasingly collide, does this strategy provide a clear framework for managing overlapping global threats—or allow for too much ambiguity at a critical moment?

@NotTVJessJones

@lestermunson

@morganlroach

@AndrewBorene

@amykmitchell

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Today, Les, Jamil, and Matt discuss the removal of General Zhang Youxia, one of the most senior figures in China’s military. Zheng’s ouster, amid allegations of corruption and possible espionage, marks the latest in a sweeping series of purges that many say have hollowed out China’s top military leadership, leaving Xi and just one other general at the apex of the Central Military Commission. As Xi appears to position himself for an unprecedented fourth term in 2027, the shakeup raises new questions about stability inside the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army.

Is Xi consolidating power or has paranoia begun to consume his own system? Do these purges weaken China’s ability to act militarily, particularly toward Taiwan, or do they increase the risk of miscalculation? And as Beijing continues aggressive exercises, cyber operations, and coordination with Russia, how should the United States interpret this moment? 

@jamil_n_jaffer

@lestermunson

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Today, Morgan, Les, Matthew, and Jess discuss the latest diplomatic push around Ukraine, following a flurry of high-level meetings at Davos and beyond. President Trump and President Zelensky met for more than an hour as the World Economic Forum wrapped up, while Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff traveled to Russia to meet with Vladimir Putin. For the first time since the war began, American, Ukrainian, and Russian officials are now slated to meet face-to-face in Abu Dhabi to discuss military and security issues, raising questions about whether momentum toward a negotiated settlement is finally building.

But are we actually any closer to peace? What would it take for Putin to seriously engage, given his repeated rejection of past proposals and the political risks he faces at home? Is Trump’s increasingly tough rhetoric a signal of leverage, hinting at greater military support for Ukraine if diplomacy fails, or a strategy to give Putin a face-saving off-ramp? 

@morganlroach

@lestermunson

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@NotTVJessJones

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Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss Greenland as President Trump arrives at the World Economic Forum in Davos and once again places the Arctic island at the center of global attention. While Trump’s rhetoric has sparked backlash across Europe, the debate raises serious strategic questions: Greenland’s growing importance to U.S. national security, its role in Arctic defense, and why Washington has sought greater influence over the territory for more than a century.

Should we be wringing our hands or rending our garments over the Kerfuffle with Europe? Does the United States have a legitimate national security interest in Greenland, and if so, what’s the right way to pursue it without fracturing NATO unity? How should Washington balance pressure with reassurance to allies already rattled by the war in Ukraine? And as Trump enters his second year in office, what does the Greenland debate tell us about how this administration plans to wield power going forward?

@lestermunson

@jamil_n_jaffer

@morganlroach

@NotTVJessJones

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Today, Jess, Les, Andrew, and Joshua take a step back from the headlines for a Fun Friday roundtable on the best and worst American foreign policy decisions, inspired by a recent Council on Foreign Relations article drawing on conversations with the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations. From the Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods to PEPFAR and the peaceful end of the Cold War in Europe, the team reflects on moments when U.S. leadership, economic power, and long-term thinking paid real dividends.

What separates foreign policy successes from failures? Why do some hard-power decisions look effective at first but unravel over time? And as the U.S. looks ahead, what should decision-makers keep firmly in mind before reaching for any one instrument of power?

Check out the article that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: 

https://www.cfr.org/ten-best-ten-worst-us-foreign-policy-decisions/?utm_source=newsrelease&utm_campaign=best-worst-2026&utm_medium=email&utm_term=PressCFR%20-%20Including%20Members%20and%20Staff 

@NotTVJessJones

@lestermunson

@AndrewBorene

@joshuachuminski

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