Today, John, Les, and Special Guest Peter Harrell—former Senior Director for International Economics at the NEC & NSC—trace the arc of U.S. trade and economic policy toward China from the engagement era of the late 1990s through future administrations. For decades, Washington operated on the theory that integrating China into the global economy through the WTO would create market opportunities and encourage political liberalization — a paradigm that persisted through Clinton, Bush, and Obama even as warning signs accumulated. The shift came gradually, driven by Chinese malign tactics, Xi Jinping's consolidation of power, and a business community that eventually saw more risk than opportunity in the relationship.

What tools — tariffs, export controls, industrial policy — have actually moved the needle on economic security, and which are more political theater than strategy? Did Trump's first-term tariffs reshape trade flows in any meaningful way, or did transshipment through states such as Vietnam and Mexico simply obscure continued Chinese dominance? How should policymakers think about the trade deficit as a strategic variable, and what would it actually take to address it? 

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@lestermunson

@johnclipsey

@petereharrell

Like what we're doing here? 

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. 

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/Metg6cjphQo

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, John, Les, and Special Guest Dinny McMahon—Head of China Markets Research at Trivium—trace the rise and slow-motion collapse of China's old economic model, and the technology and export-led manufacturing behemoth replacing it. For decades, China's economy ran on a simple engine: a high-debt construction and investment boom with real estate at the core and as the primary store of middle-class wealth. As Xi consolidated political power and began deflating the property bubble, he charted a new economic model featuring export driven growth and a high-tech industrial policy fueled by hyper competition—sparking today’s high stakes clash with the U.S. and Europe.

Can Xi's new economic model actually replace the prosperity that the property collapse destroyed? Why has Beijing continued to suppress consumption and what would it take for Chinese households to start spending? How should Washington be responding to a system that exploits global markets as we try to re-shore industry, de-risk supply chains, and compete for the frontiers of advanced technology? Are the flying cars we were promised finally here?! 

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@lestermunson

@johnclipsey

@DinnyMcMahon

Like what we're doing here? 

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. 

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here:

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, John, and special guest Richard Goldberg assess where the Iran conflict stands and where it is headed. The Strait of Hormuz is once again a flashpoint, with U.S. naval forces blockading traffic while escorting commercial shipping — a posture that has helped push down gas prices but left Tehran cut off from economic relief. Iran's missile manufacturing capacity has taken serious damage, its proxies are diminished, and the regional coalition willing to push back against Tehran is growing.

Can the United States sustain a low-level kinetic pressure campaign without either failing to keep the Strait sufficiently open or pushing Iran into a corner that forces escalation? Is Washington executing a deliberate anaconda strategy, or risk managing its way into an open-ended conflict with no defined endgame? With the Iranian economy in freefall and the regime's popular legitimacy threadbare, are U.S. operations actually forestalling the one card that could matter most — an uprising by the Iranian people themselves?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@lestermunson

@johnclipsey

@rich_goldberg

Like what we're doing here? 

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. 

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/_jgKTU6RVhQ

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, John, and special guest Retired General Doug Lute, assess the NATO summit held this week in Ankara, where 32 allied leaders gathered against a backdrop of persistent tensions over burden-sharing, Greenland, and the future of the transatlantic relationship. The summit's communiqué delivered a strong, direct reaffirmation of collective defense, and allied progress on defense spending gave Trump enough reason to leave in relatively good spirits. Yet beneath the surface, fundamental questions about NATO's structure, Europe's growing strategic autonomy, and Washington's reliability remain unresolved.

Is the Ankara summit a true turning point for the alliance, or a fragile moment of unity held together by personalities and political convenience? Who deserves credit for moving the needle on European defense spending — Trump, Obama, or the threat environment itself? As the U.S. share of global economic power shrinks relative to China and other emerging poles, does NATO's current structure still serve American national security interests? 

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@lestermunson

@johnclipsey

@lutedoug

Like what we're doing here? 

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. 

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/0QWL4s-vhPI

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, John, and Andrew cover a busy news cycle spanning the skies over Moscow to the streets of America. Ukrainian drones — produced domestically and flying hundreds of miles — are hammering Russian energy infrastructure and forcing Putin to publicly acknowledge fuel shortages across the country for the first time, as air defenses are redeployed from Crimea to protect the capital. 

Can Ukraine's drone campaign sustain enough pressure to meaningfully shift the strategic calculus for Putin? What does Russia's fuel crisis reveal about the durability of its war machine? ⁨Can the U.S. men’s soccer teams advance to the round of 16 by defeating World War instigators Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@nottvjessjones

@lestermunson

@johnclipsey

@andrewborene

Like what we're doing here? 

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. 

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/-SZp5rCIkAc

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, John, Andrew, and Andy examine the devastating earthquake that has killed more than 1,500 people in Venezuela, a number expected to climb, and what the U.S. response reveals about American humanitarian leadership in the Trump era. Washington has committed $150 million in aid flowing through UN agencies and NGOs, with DART teams and fire and rescue units from across the country, including Los Angeles and Fairfax County, already on the ground.

But the response raises harder questions than it answers. With USAID largely dismantled, who actually leads American disaster response now, and what does that mean for U.S. soft power on the world stage? Now that the U.S. has removed Maduro and installed a friendly government in Caracas, the response carries an unavoidable optic: is Washington showing up for Venezuela because lives are at stake, or because this is now its ally? And if the U.S. is only willing to show up for countries already in its corner, what does that say about the credibility of American humanitarian commitments when the next crisis hits in less friendly territory?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@lestermunson

@andykeiser

@johnclipsey

@andrewborene

Like what we're doing here? 

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. 

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/2_k_PBIlp48

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Algene, John, and Andrew discuss reports that the Trump administration is considering major defense sales to Turkey, despite bipartisan opposition in Congress. Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019 after purchasing Russia's S-400 air defense system, but as alliance leaders gather in Turkey next month for the NATO Summit, supporters cite its strategic importance to the alliance and recent efforts to distance itself from Moscow.

Does Turkey's recent westward drift justify relaxing the restrictions imposed after the S-400 purchase? What are real security risks if Russian-made air defense systems and F-35 engines end up in the same arsenal? Can the administration move forward with major defense sales to Turkey on its own, or does Congress have the authority to block the deal?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@nottvjessjones

@algenesajery

@johnclipsey

@andrewborene

Like what we're doing here? 

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. 

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/f3ux1hHjHFE

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Algene, and John dig into two closely contested elections that could reshape Latin American politics. In Colombia, right-wing candidate Abelardo De La Espriella holds a narrow lead in the presidential runoff, and in Peru, Keiko Fujimori also maintains a razor-thin advantage over leftist Roberto Sánchez as electoral authorities continue reviewing disputed ballots. The team examines what these elections say about security, anti-incumbent sentiment, and the region's broader political trajectory. Plus, John provides an update on the NBA Draft and what it could mean for the Washington Wizards - and the world.

Is Latin America's rightward shift a reaction to failed incumbents or a true ideological realignment? How does the Trump administration's Monroe Doctrine revival affect the sovereignty and democratic health of these nations?  Will the Wizards’ draft of a star player mean a new era of DC sports?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@nottvjessjones

@lestermunson

@algenesajery

@johnclipsey

Like what we're doing here? 

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. 

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/cYQ23Sbe7HU

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, John, Andrew, Matt, and Amy dig into the ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations playing out in Switzerland, where a publicly snubbed Vice President and a shifting cast of regional brokers — Qatar and Pakistan prominent among them — signal just how little control Washington holds over the process. The Strait of Hormuz remains a pressure point, with the southern half open only under U.S. military escort and proxy attacks continuing even as diplomats talk. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer's resignation in the UK and a contentious Colombian election add to an already turbulent international backdrop.

Does the current negotiating posture amount to the U.S. practically begging Iran for a deal, and what does that say about American leverage? With the MOU still existing in multiple competing versions and Iran pressing for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as a condition, what would a deal the President can actually enforce even look like? If last July's strikes on Iran's nuclear program were meant to be decisive, why does the situation feel like it hasn't moved at all? 

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@lestermunson

@amykmitchell

@andrewborene

@JohnCLipsey

@wmatthayden

Like what we're doing here? 

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. 

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/WzLCd6MsFHk

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Amy, John, and Andrew dig into the alleged 14-point memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. The deal's broad outlines would have Iran maintain the status quo of its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, with a 300-billion-dollar economic development commitment and a 60-day window to negotiate a final agreement. Critics see it as an economic lifeline for a weakened regime — not a genuine constraint on Iranian ambitions or its network of proxies.

Can the IRGC be trusted to honor its commitments, or is this a foil to buy time? How does this MOU compare to the JCPOA, and does the changed regional landscape, including Arab mediation and a diminished Iranian military, alter the calculus? Does the deal represent a national security win, or is it a politically convenient off-ramp that trades away American leverage for optics?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

@lestermunson

@amykmitchell

@andrewborene

@JohnCLipsey

Like what we're doing here? 

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. 

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/MHxgZ8L3rOI

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.