FICC Focus

“So for us, it’s a $40 trillion market,” says John Cortese, head of portfolio management at Apollo, when talking about the mostly investment grade opportunity in private credit, including asset backed deals and corporates. Cortese joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about where the growth comes from, the evolution of a secondary market and why private credit works for high grade borrowers. They also get into the shifting landscape in credit trading, the advantages of being big and fast, relative value plays and lessons learned from trading synthetics in the early aughts.

Emerging market economies are benefiting from better-than-expected growth and inflation expectations, with local rates looking set to outperform amid a more dovish US Federal Reserve. Dirk Willer, managing director and global head of macroeconomic research at Citigroup, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief emerging-market fixed-income strategist, to assess the fixed-income landscape, with implications for interest rate and currency markets across the globe. Willer and Sassower touch on topics ranging from systematic drivers and foreign positioning to FX-hedge flows and central bank reserves.

JPMorgan’s Phoebe White, head of inflation strategy, says a September interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve risks pushing inflation expectations higher. She joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives work, how investors use them to hedge and JPMorgan’s outlook for breakevens and real yields. The BI US Interest Rate Strategy team has recently published research on TIPS, including a market outlook and an analysis of market structure.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“I want a decent proportion of my returns to be from actively trading either through themes, individual instruments or...between EM and DM, between Europe and the US,“ says Andrew Jackson, head of Investments and leader of the Fixed Income Boutique for Vontobel. Jackson joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Damian Sassower on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk beta vs. alpha exposures, current risk pricing across credit, the emerging-market landscape and the value in active management.

On the latest episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s State of Distressed podcast, Andrew Axelrod, founder & CEO of Axar Capital, shares how focused distressed debt buyers such as Axar Capital are often the best bid for middle-market troubled loans as they stand ready to commit capital and sweat equity to the turnaround. In his conversation with BI’s Chief US Credit Strategist Noel Hebert and Senior Credit Analyst Phil Brendel (5:55), Axelrod touches on Axar’s “loan-to-own” strategy, what he looks for in management teams, and the importance of “sticking to the process.” The podcast concludes with Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion on At Home, Claire’s, CommScope, LifeScan, the SCOTUS pitch in Serta, and Ardagh Group (1:04:33).

History suggests that technology improves lives and standards of living, despite the fears that often accompany it, says Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Levitt is joined by host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s head of US interest-rate strategy, and Will Hoffman, BI senior US and Canada rates-strategy associate, to discuss the state of the economy and long-term structural trends. The trio also dives into short-term inflation dynamics, strategic investment decisions in times of uncertainty and risks to currently priced narratives across asset classes.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

The cyclically and structurally dollar bearish narrative that dominated 1H have just been revived by the weakness in the July Non Farm Payrolls figures and associated dovish Fed expectations adjustment (cyclically dollar negative) as well as by the controversial and highly unexpected firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Chief (structurally dollar negative). Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Elias Haddad, Senior Market Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Investor about whether the recent US dollar rebound may be over already.

Elias and Audrey agree that the dollar bear view stays in place beyond near-term summer distortions and with the $1.20 plus euro-dollar year-end case holding for now.

Real estate private credit has grown into a major source of debt financing for the US commercial real estate market, bridging the gap left by traditional banks and lenders. Josh Zegen, principal and co-founder of Madison Realty Capital, joins BI Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Damian Sassower to discuss his firm’s approach to loan origination, acquisition, servicing and valuation. Zegen and Sassower discuss the role of flexible capital in commercial real estate, with a focus on financing costs, return expectations, market trends and institutional appetite.

There’s a wall of money that is a transcendent supportive influence over global assets, says Russ Brownback, co-portfolio manager of the BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund on this episode of the FICC Focus Podcast. Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey hosts this Macro Matters edition delving into Brownback’s views on the dollar remaining the global reserve currency, finding yield among development market sovereigns, technical factors supporting global asset markets, and his views around select opportunities to sell fixed-income volatility.

Mortgage-market investors will need to pay especially close attention to policy shifts and actions in coming weeks, says Erica Adelberg, chief mortgage strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. On this Macro Matter’s episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Adelberg is joined by host Ira Jersey, BI’s head of US interest-rate strategy, to discuss the mortgage-backed securities market. Adelberg explores how the MBS landscape is evolving amid recent policy shifts, including GSE-privatization discussions, the broadening of mortgage-credit access through the adoption of VantageScore, changes to VA loss-mitigation strategies and shifting demand across mortgage-backed securities products. The analysis also considers the influence of the Federal Reserve on MBS supply and demand dynamics.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.