“There’s no hope on the [US federal] deficit front,” says Robert Tipp, PGIM’s Chief Investment Strategist and head of global bonds on this 200th edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Tipp joins host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist on this Macro Matters episode to discuss the state of the global rates markets, including Tipp’s view on the near term and more secular drivers of Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s policy. Tipp sees the longer-term bull market in rates coming to an end, and looks for the Fed’s policy-rate terminal floor to be at or above 3%. Importantly, he also views deficits as being detrimental to the Treasury market, but sees opportunity for investors to benefit from being in corporate credit as the Fed’s hiking cycle ends. 

In the Interest Rate Intro segment of the podcast, US interest rate strategy associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about financial conditions and how tightening feeds into the Fed’s near-term interest rate action.

High yield had a great year in terms of returns in both US and Europe. In Europe, we saw just two index defaults this year and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control while its surged in the US. Will 4Q sustain this year's gains, and when do we see a default wave, if any? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 4Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies.

They discuss our 4Q23 investor survey publication, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector in detail.

“Disruptors can ruin the status quo, but they can replace the status quo with something that is not sustainable because it doesn’t have a core business model. Streaming right now is in that space,” Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University says on this month’s State of Distressed edition of the FICC Focus podcast.

In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss corporate credit’s resiliency amid negative seasonals and high rates. Then, Hebert and Brendel have an in-depth feature interview with Damodaran on a wide variety of valuation challenges, including inflation, distressed companies, disrupted media, dysfunctional governments and foreign conflict (7:50). Balluku rejoins in the last segment to review the latest developments for Hawaiian Electric, Alameda, Grayscale, Audacy and Diamond Sports (1:11:42).

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stuart Paul, Bloomberg Economics' US economist, discuss possible US recession risks, the US economic outlook into 4Q and 2024 and associated downside risks for the dollar. Audrey and her colleague talk about how the US economy already may have started to turn, and how -- combined with a mid-term disinflation outlook -- 2024 Fed rate cuts may be contemplated after all, which could trigger yet another change in the FX narrative and give dollar downside a chance again.

Audrey and Stuart also touch on US politics and how government shutdown risks could soon return as a market consideration and potentially become more of a dollar driver than in the past, with more of a negative effect.

“Your optimized portfolio isn't optimal if you can't trade it.” Paul Kamenski and Robert Lam, co-heads of credit for Man Numeric, join Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about the evolution and outlook for systematic credit. Trade automation, training models and why systemic credit is still in it's early stages of growth. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series. 

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Pierre de Saab, Partner at Dominice to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape. Topics discussed includes interest-rate volatility, VIX risk premium, call overwriting strategies and zero-days-to-expiry options (ODTEs), which now make up more than 50% of the overall volume of SPX options traded.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist. They discuss the Bank of England, economic outlook and market volatility.

Despite trillions being passed through recent bills to reduce inflation and spur infrastructure spending, neither goal has really been met. At first blush, the prospects of all that federal money being directed at much needed infrastructure improvements and repairs was music to the muni markets ears. However, that dream of being part of the funding solution has never really materialized and only added to the myriad of issues facing the tax-exempt market.

Joining myself and Karen this month to discuss the many challenges the municipal market is facing is Hector Negroni, Founder and CEO of Foundation Credit. For those unfamiliar, Foundation is a leading alternative asset manager dedicated to municipal credit and infrastructure debt markets in the United States. Hector is no stranger to our markets, with a career spanning over 3 decades in investing proprietary trading, public/private financing, derivatives, and structured products.

“The 10-year Treasury ending the year around 4.2-4.3% seems fair, but the recent selloff has been overdone,” William Marshall, head of US rates strategy at BNP Paribas says. Marshall joins host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist on the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast to discuss his market views in the wake of the September FOMC meeting. The pair dissect recent yield moves across the curve, as well as underlying catalysts and narratives. These include a persistently high federal deficit, elevated Treasury issuance and potential sources of demand for securities amid a deluge of T-bill and coupon issuance. Marshall sees no broad liquidity pressures on funding markets via the impact of the Fed’s asset runoff, which could continue past his expectations for interest rate cuts beginning in June.

In this month’s State of Distressed Debt edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss high yield’s and distressed’s uncanny strength through the summer amid higher rates. Then, bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Brendel have an in-depth interview with Kris Hansen, co-chair of the financial restructuring group at Paul Hastings, on how “creditor-on-creditor violence” is a misnomer, the intersection of crypto and bankruptcy, Chapter 11 as a forum for resolving mass tort and his outlook for restructurings (6:10). Balluku, Brendel and Hebert wrap up with the latest developments for Johnson & Johnson, 3M, Alameda, Grayscale, Yellow Corp., Diamond Sports and National Cinemedia (1:22:09).