FICC Focus

Commercial real estate lending remains highly sensitive to US interest rates, yet it also offers a much wider complexity premium than competing fixed income asset classes, with potential for outsized investor returns. Robin Potts, chief investment officer of Real Estate at Canyon Partners, joins BI chief fixed income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss her firm’s approach to risk management, recovery mechanisms, loan origination and product evolution. Potts and Sassower discuss financing structures, liquidity trends, operating expenses and the broader landscape for institutional capital.

Market uncertainty can create its own opportunity, and when it comes to investing, “rules are meant to be broken in terms of finding attractive situations.” That’s according to Jeffrey Kivitz, chief investment officer for Canyon Capital Advisors, who joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to discuss the firm’s approach to distressed and opportunistic credit. We talk about pricing risk amid uncertainty, solving for borrower needs, why the ingredients may be in place to see and more traditional, elongated credit cycle, and much more. 

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Municipal bonds scored a win in President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” passed by the House earlier this week. They didn’t lose tax-exempt status, though the bill now moves to the Senate, where it can be changed and sent back to the House for another vote. BI analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by BI tax analyst Andrew Silverman and BI policy analyst Nathan Dean to discuss the legislation. The team discusses the legislation’s impact on the tax-exempt municipal market, federal spending and the bond market’s signaling of displeasure with deficits. 

“I think ultimately the bond market is the disciplinarian for fiscal policymakers” says Mike Medeiros, macro strategist at Wellington Management. Medeiros joins Macro Matters hosts Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI’s senior associate US-Canada rates strategist, to discuss all things US and Canadian rates. The trio has one foot on each side of the border on this episode, unpacking the recent bond-market moves and their drivers. They cover the developing state of fiscal budgets and potential stimulative impacts on these economies, as well where monetary policy and yield curves may be headed as price-sensitive investors demand additional premium for long-dated sovereign debt.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“The cat-and-mouse game will continue,” says Scott Greenberg, the global chair of Gibson Dunn’s Business Restructuring and Reorganization Practice Group, referring to sponsors using “sneaky” nondisclosure agreements and anti-cooperation provisions to combat lender coordination in “three-dimensional” liability management. In a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Negisa Balluku at Beard Group’s Distressed Investing Media Night, Greenberg discussed his extensive involvement in the evolution of cooperation agreements, the flexibility of larger lenders with “more skin in the game,” and drawbacks of organizing too early. He also delved into the impact of reputational risk in the enforceability of co-ops, cultural differences that influence lender dynamics in European and US markets and his definition of “success” in liability management.

The conversation took place on May 6. The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit recovered from the tariff rout with trade war easing with many deals across US, China and UK while the new government takes shape in Germany and rate cuts priced for central banks - especially the ECB and BOE - adding momentum. The big question is whether this strength will continue? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Amir Fergani, Head of Credit LDI at Generali Asset Management, discuss tariffs, fiscal policies German and French politics and their effect on inflation, growth and central bank policy, the dollar weakness and its impact on global credit and the challenges of taking a directional view after big rates moves.

Carronade Capital Management Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer Dan Gropper expects the US to be in for a “rough ride.” “If I were today sitting on the board of a major corporation, I’m not sure I’d build my new factory or start a new division or open 14 new restaurants. You’d want to know what’s going to happen with the economy. And so even the uncertainty without the second- and third-order effects that can and will occur from tariffs, even before that happens, I think you’re already seeing people starting to pull back,” said Gropper, when he joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel at the Beard Group’s Distressed Investment Media Night on May 6. He detailed his firm’s investment approach, which is rooted in deep distressed investing experience and a collaborative DNA (6:35). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Brendel discussed the sharp widening of spreads in the energy sector and credit’s gloomy outlook. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining them for a roundtable discussion on Serta, Hertz, GOL, Incora, Ardagh, CommScope, WW International and Rite Aid (28:20).

Andy Constan, chief investment officer of Damped Spring Advisors, said a combination of potential expenditure cuts, which he estimates at around $300 billion per year, represents the largest fiscal tightening of his lifetime. Constan joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey, chief US strategist, and Will Hoffman, US/CAD senior rates strategy associate, on this episode of Macro Matters to discuss all things interest rates. They talk about some of the biggest bond market myths as well as the path forward for the Fed’s balance sheet as quantitative tightening downshifted into low gear. The trio also discuss the likelihood for shifts in Treasury issuance as well as where monetary policy and bond yields may be headed.

Bitcoin’s volatility (currently 40%) is declining as adoption increases and the options market expands. In this edition of All Options Considered, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 10T Holdings and 1RoundTable Partners, to discuss how to navigate volatility in digital assets.

There's a case to argue that peak tariff headlines negativity is behind for Canada and that can be associated with improved fortunes for the currency. In this episode of FX Moment, BI's Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Jeremy Stretch, Chief International Strategist at CIBC World Markets, about Canada's economic and political dynamics, for a Canadian dollar focus episode. The Bank of Canada will probably end up being more dovish than expected in 2025, but it isn't alone and combined with more expansionary yet credible fiscal dynamics under Mark Carney's leadership, that should all help the growth narrative and the currency.

Jeremy and Audrey also discuss the longer-term increased Canadian dollar appeal in a context of de-dollarization and global reserves diversification strategies.