FICC Focus

“From the beginning of 2024 till now, literally every six months you could set your alarm to it... the reprices were occurring,” says David Saitowitz, head of US Liquid Credit for ICG. Saitowitz joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to review the current landscape for CLOs, including the steady wave of repricings and refinancings, the quick recovery from April volatility and why he’s cautious about the intermediate-term outlook. The two discuss growing the US liquid-credit business, staying disciplined amid market swings, control economics for the CLO equity tranche and much more.

Traditional safe havens are misbehaving as the once-distinct boundaries between emerging and developed markets begins to blur. Peter Kent, co-head of Emerging Market Fixed Income at Ninety One, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief EM fixed-income strategist Damian Sassower to break down the risks and opportunities facing asset allocators across the globe. Kent and Sassower touch on global trade, supply shocks, capital flows, fiscal balances, investor positioning and currency volatility as the perceived safety of developed market debt is called into question.

The GENIUS Act is just the beginning of the regulatory process for stablecoins, notes Nathan Dean, senior policy analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence on this Macro Matters episode. Dean joins hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman of BI’s interest-rate strategy team to discuss why the act was created, how demand for Treasury Bills and repurchase agreements may shift over time, as well as briefly touching on the proposed change to the bank supplementary leverage ratio.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Disqualified lender lists may be counterproductive because when you get to the negotiating room “it’s often the distressed funds that are the more ‘constructive’ from the perspective of the sponsor” says Ross Rosenfelt, a managing director in Oaktree’s Opportunities group. In this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast, Rosenfelt sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explain why sponsors may be getting steered in the wrong direction when they put credit opportunity funds on their DQ list. He dives into Oaktree’s approach to liability management exercises, cooperation agreements and why recent related antitrust bluster around those agreements isn’t keeping him up at night (8:15). Prior to that, Brendel and BI’s Noel Hebert discuss their shared amazement at both the equity and debt markets’ ebullience. The podcast concludes with a round-table discussion on Sunnova, At Home, Wolfspeed, Marelli and Yellow Corp (1:06:00).

US Treasury yields are the lowest among the G3+, once hedged back to US dollars. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s US interest rate strategist, and Huw Worthington, his European rate strategy counterpart, take up the topic in this episode of the Macro Matters podcast. The analysts discuss central bank policy action and government bond markets in general. They also discuss why long-end yields have been more sensitive to fears of rising deficits than shorter-maturity bonds. Terminal users can view their note on how Treasuries are the lowest-yielding sovereign bond market, after the currency hedge, by clicking here. 

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit and high yield had a good 1H, shaking off tariffs and a spread rout with a strong recovery. Will 2H be as strong, and why? Thomas Samson, high yield portfolio manager at Muzinich & Co., joins Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, to discuss the results of BI’s 3Q High Yield Investor Survey, along with the market outlook. They also talk about dollar flows into euro-denominated assets, the trade war’s effect on market dispersions, and how private credit and loan markets are influencing high yield and default rates in 2H. They cover investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.

Rates volatility has compressed with the Fed on hold and mean reversion of yields, but exhibited a bumpy path in 1H. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI’s chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management. They discuss the dynamics of rates volatility and reliability of strategies to diversify portfolios.

The nearly 15% euro-dollar rally in 1H was fueled largely by dollar weakness and a potentially bullish cyclical case for the euro — especially expectations for a supportive fiscal and monetary policy mix — which may continue to support the outlook into 2H. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Constantin Bolz, head of G10 FX for UBS’ Chief Investment Office, about how evolving euro-area and US fiscal and monetary policy may help euro-dollar strength into 2H and beyond, depending on how the US economic story plays out. They also discuss the de-dollarization trend and how the SNB could address the challenge of an appreciating franc.

There will almost certainly be some stress later this year in funding markets, but it might fall short of the level required for the Federal Reserve to step in, Will Hoffman, Bloomberg Intelligence senior associate for US and Canadian rates strategy, says on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Hoffman is joined by co-host Ira Jersey, chief US rates strategist, to discuss the recently announced potential changes to Basel capital rules, such as the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (ESLR). After discussing what it means (or doesn’t mean) for Treasury markets, the pair unpack the biggest topics in the world of money funds, including the potential for stablecoin growth and tokenized money fund adoption driving net demand for T-bills. They also dive into the debt-ceiling unwind — covering T-bill net issuance patterns and the potential disruption to repo markets.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. 

“If you were a client that was focused on North America, you’re probably picking your head up a little bit and saying, ‘What else do you have away from North America that could be interesting?,’” according to Bryan High, head of Barings’ Global Private Finance Group. High joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about the benefits of a global platform amid uncertainty, when secondaries make sense, where the growth is in private credit and managing for effective leverage. They talk about being with a borrower through its life cycle, finding structures for less-conventional opportunities and much more.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.