As the war in Ukraine continues into its fourth week, the picture on the ground has largely remained the same in recent days, with the Russian military making only minimal progress toward its objectives. Meanwhile, negotiations are continuing but look highly unlikely to produce tangible results in the next couple of weeks—Putin knows that the conflict will eventually be settled at the negotiating table, and Russia is therefore likely to increase the brutality of its tactics in the short-term with the aim of compelling Zelensky into concessions. Finally, the risk of an expanded conflict remains, demonstrated by Moscow’s recent attack on a training facility near the Polish border as well as its warnings that Western arms convoys could be considered “legitimate targets” for attack. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to examine the continuing war and potential trajectories.

Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.

Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information and cyber operations.