Future Around & Find Out

Deepfakes are getting easier and easier to make. So, how will we be able to believe that what we see and what we hear is real? And what can software makers do to help?

Sam Gregory is an expert on deepfakes, AI, and trust. He advises governments and tech companies on how they can protect human rights and how we can preserve our shared reality. 

Sam is the executive director of WITNESS, an organization that helps citizens use video to foster social change. WITNESS has trained and supported citizen-journalists since the days of the camcorder through the smartphone era and now into the world of AI. 

We discuss:

• How deepfakes are being used to spread disinformation and erode trust in media.
• How to detect that a piece of media was manipulated and to what degree
• Why audio deepfakes are so pernicious
• How deepfakes mostly did not affect the 2024 US Presidential Election, while cheapfakes were very common
• The surprising ways AI is both helping and harming human rights defenders and journalists
• Why “Prepare, Don’t Panic” is WITNESS’s mantra for addressing AI threats.
• Practical steps software makers can take to design tools that prioritize transparency and ethical use, such as including transparency features in AI-generated content, red teaming to simulate misuse scenarios, thinking beyond Western contexts, and more…

Chapters:

• (00:55) - Deepfakes and the threat they pose human rights and journalism

Links:

• Learn more about WITNESS: witness.org
• Visit WITNESS’s resources on generative AI: gen-ai.witness.org
• Learn more about deepfakes and AI detection: C2PA Coalition

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Accounting may not be the sexiest part of running a business, but according to Sasha Orloff, it’s the key to understanding your company’s financial health—and ultimately, its success. At his previous two startups, Sasha was frustrated that he didn’t have a real-time view into his company’s financial health. And he realized the problem wasn’t accounting – but accounting software. So, Sasha founded Puzzle, because “it's hard to set yourself up for success if you don't know when you're about to run out of money.”

Sasha is on a mission to make accounting intuitive, real-time, and accessible for founders and finance teams alike.

In this episode of CRAFTED., we explore how Sasha is crafting Puzzle, how AI makes this the right moment to challenge QuickBooks, and why he was so confident that the market needed Puzzle that he was undaunted by the five years he estimated it would take to build an MVP.

"We’re not just rethinking accounting software—we’re rethinking how founders and CEOs can make data-driven decisions to build enduring companies." 

Sasha shares:

• How the frustration he felt at his previous startups led him to Puzzle 
• Why “accounting gets a bad rap”, but it crucial for founders: it’s your financial health
• Why second-time founders are ideal customers
• Why it took five years to build an MVP – and why he wasn’t daunted by this expectation
• Why the problem was never accounting, but accounting software and the distorted realities it’s built to create
• Why AI and modern API’s made now the right time to build Puzzle
• Why Puzzle is “poking the bear” and putting highway billboards up near QuickBooks HQ

• (01:04) - Sasha’s finance frustrations at previous startups

• Learn more about Puzzle: Puzzle.io
• Follow Sasha Orloff on LinkedIn: Sasha Orloff
• Turpentine Finance Podcast: Turpentine Finance

CRAFTED. is produced by Modern Product Minds, where CRAFTED. host Dan Blumberg and team can help you take a new product from zero to one... and beyond. We specialize in early stage product discovery, growth, and experimentation. Learn more at modernproductminds.com

Subscribe to CRAFTED., follow the show, and sign up for the newsletter 👉 crafted.fm

AI democratizes things. It's enabling designers to be developers, and developers to be designers… And in this episode, Aaron Walter and Eli Woolery explain how AI “changes the game” for designers. 

As co-founders of Design Better, Aaron and Eli advise companies on how to incorporate AI into their design process. We’ll explore how AI can help designers explore a problem more thoroughly, as well as some pitfalls to watch out for. (Hint: speed is not always a good thing.)

Aaron and Eli are also hosts of the popular Design Better podcast, where they’ve interviewed some of the world’s most creative people. Featuring software designers, as well as famous musicians, artists, architects, and more, the duo explore the creative process. And there are some striking similarities across disciplines.

For more on Aaron and Eli and to subscribe to the Design Better podcast and newsletter, see DesignBetterPodcast.com

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CRAFTED. is produced by Modern Product Minds, where CRAFTED. host Dan Blumberg can help you take a new product from zero to one... and beyond. We specialize in early stage product discovery, growth, and experimentation. Learn more at modernproductminds.com 

Subscribe to CRAFTED., follow the show, and sign up for the newsletter 👉 crafted.fm

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Amir Nathoo is reimagining the future of education by building products that put students at the center of their learning experience. As the Founder and CEO of Outschool, Amir has created a marketplace for remote, personalized, interest-based learning that’s challenging traditional K-12. 

In this episode of CRAFTED., we explore how Amir founded and grew Outschool, including the 15x spike in usage during the pandemic. 

Post-pandemic, alternative education and homeschooling continues to rise. As Amir says: “The idea that a single institution could fulfill all of your kids' needs or all of all kids' needs is completely unrealistic…. Mass personalization is needed.” And he sees Outschool as the integration layer for all those teachers, students, and institutions. 

You will learn a ton from Amir’s approach to product development and disruption. 

Key takeaways for product builders: 

1. Start with a Niche Audience, Then Expand

Amir and Outschool began by targeting a specific group—secular homeschoolers—who had unmet needs in education. By serving this niche well, they achieved product-market fit before scaling to a broader audience.

2. Co-Creation, FTW
Outschool's initial product was shaped through customer co-creation and iterative development, testing small features before scaling them.

3. Solve Real Problems, But Keep Early Stakes Low
While Outschool addressed a critical need (supplemental education), they started with interest-based, "low-stakes" classes. This allowed them to test and refine their offering without the pressure that would’ve come with offering “core” classes.

4. Build a Two-Sided Marketplace with Balance
Creating a thriving marketplace like Outschool required balancing teacher supply with student demand. Amir emphasized solving the “chicken and egg” problem by manually curating both sides early on.

5. Pay Attention to the Market and Adapt Quickly
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, Outschool responded quickly by offering free training sessions for schools who needed to understand remote learning, scaling their platform, and adding free classes to serve families in need.

***
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CRAFTED. is produced by Modern Product Minds, where CRAFTED. host Dan Blumberg and team can help you take a new product from zero to one... and beyond. We specialize in early stage product discovery, growth, and experimentation. Learn more at modernproductminds.com 

Hilary Mason is a world-builder. She’s a serial entrepreneur, machine learning expert, and now, as the founder and CEO of Hidden Door, she’s creating immersive experiences where fans can interact with their favorite characters from books and movies. 

The choose-your-own-adventures style games are an amazing blend of AI and human creativity — and Hilary is passionate about both: 

On this episode of CRAFTED., we discuss what AI is good at and how to create a great marriage of human and machine. And Hilary is not holding back… 

Listen for a masterclass on building with AI and building with creativity and soul.

• (02:00) - – This moment in AI: figuring out the right use cases and design patterns

Where to find Hidden Door:

• https://www.hiddendoor.co/

Where to find Hilary Mason:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hilarymason/
• X: https://x.com/hmason 

Where to find Dan Blumberg:

• Website & newsletter: https://www.crafted.fm 
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dblums/
• X: https://x.com/dblums

CRAFTED. is produced by Modern Product Minds, where CRAFTED. host Dan Blumberg and team can help you take a new product from zero to one... and beyond. We specialize in early stage product discovery, growth, and experimentation. Learn more at modernproductminds.com 

As AI models grow larger and more powerful, they promise incredible capabilities — but at what cost? 

Karen Hao is a journalist and former engineer who writes about the impact of artificial intelligence on society for The Atlantic and other top publications. 

On this episode of CRAFTED., we discuss whether the largest AI models are worth their hefty footprint: They consume massive amounts of electricity and water and Karen argues that smaller models better balance cost vs. benefit. 

Karen will also provide a view of AI from outside — far outside — Silicon Valley. She’s reported on AI from across the Global South and we’ll hear about the fight over data centers in Chile, how New Zealand’s Maori people are using AI to preserve their indigenous language, and why it’s a problem that AI can speak any language, but can only really be policed in a few.

Key Moments:

• (01:51) - - The view of AI from the Global South

• Website: https://karendhao.com/
• X: https://x.com/_KarenHao
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/karendhao/
• Threads: https://www.threads.net/@_karenhao

Articles Mentioned:

• Microsoft’s Hypocrisy on AI (The Atlantic) 
• A new vision of artificial intelligence for the people (MIT Technology Review)
• AI Is Taking Water From the Desert (The Atlantic)

Where to find Dan Blumberg:

• Website & newsletter: https://www.crafted.fm 
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dblums/
• X: https://x.com/dblums

CRAFTED. is produced by Modern Product Minds, where CRAFTED. host Dan Blumberg and team can help you take a new product from zero to one... and beyond. We specialize in early stage product discovery, growth, and experimentation. Learn more at modernproductminds.com 

Subscribe to CRAFTED., follow the show, and sign up for the newsletter 👉 crafted.fm

Russ Somers has tripled his productivity by building a “GPTeam” of AI “employees.” In this episode, from Beyond the Prompt, the head of marketing for Quantified reveals how he’s done it, and how you can build your own virtual team to be more productive and creative. 

Russ’s virtual team helps with tasks ranging from webinar content creation to specialized knowledge acquisition. Through personal anecdotes and exploratory conversations, the episode delves into the process of building AI team members, the importance of play in learning and innovation, and strategies for incorporating AI into personal and professional growth. 

Highlights include building AI with specific skill sets like 'Wendy Webinar' and 'Roger RevOps,' and the philosophical implications of personifying AI for better engagement and output. And Russ's personal journey from a layoff to pioneering AI productivity tools opens a discussion on the transformative power of AI in the modern workplace.

Subscribe to Beyond the Prompt on Spotify, Apple, or your favorite podcast app. 

And follow hosts Henrik Werdelin and Jeremy Utley on LinkedIn. 

Key Moments:

• (00:48) - Meet Russ Summers: The One-Man Marketing Powerhouse

Kira Radinsky is the CEO of Diagnostic Robotics, which uses AI to make predictions that help patients get better healthcare. She’s also the co-founder of Mana.bio which is using AI to automate drug discovery. 

On this episode of CRAFTED., Kira will share more on why she believes that, of all the industries that AI will change, it’s those involving chemistry and biology that will change the most. Plus, why she says: “I just want AI to replace me as a scientist.” 

Kira shares:

• How Mana.bio is using AI to build new “rocketships” that can deliver drugs to the right planets (cells) — and how they’ve done things in three months that used to take 20 years
• How AI is accelerating drug discovery by creating feedback loops that speed up learning
• How Diagnostic Robotics makes predictions on patient outcomes that help doctors and care teams provide better care
• Why she loves making predictions — Kira is famous for them. Over a decade ago, while getting her PhD and working with Microsoft, she built systems that successfully predicted cholera outbreaks and riots.
• How to incentivize bots to make bolder predictions. i.e. It’s easy to predict that there will not be an earthquake today; it’s harder to say today there will be one. 
• Why predictions are only valuable if there’s something you can do to prevent bad outcomes — and why this makes healthcare an ideal field
• How advances in software have enabled her to follow her dream and be a scientist. (Kira doesn’t have the great hands you need to be a lab chemist.)

Key Moments 

• (02:29) - Why predictions have been so important to Kira from an early age, and her dream to be a scientist

CRAFTED. is brought to you in partnership with Docker, which helps developers build, share, run and verify applications anywhere – without environment confirmation or management. More than 20 million developers worldwide use Docker's suite of development tools, services and automations to accelerate the delivery of secure applications. 

CRAFTED. is produced by Modern Product Minds, where CRAFTED. host Dan Blumberg and team can help you take a new product from zero to one... and beyond. We specialize in early stage product discovery, growth, and experimentation. Learn more at modernproductminds.com 

Subscribe to CRAFTED., follow the show, and sign up for the newsletter 👉 crafted.fm

Matt Flannery and Branch have done something the banks have not: learned how to profitably lend to people who have little to no credit history. Matt is the founder and CEO of Branch, which issues small loans to millions of people in India, Nigeria, Kenya, and Tanzania. 

He's also the founder of Kiva, a microfinance pioneer that skyrocketed from a small project into a worldwide nonprofit that Oprah and President Clinton loved talking about. 

On this episode of CRAFTED., we learn how Branch uses data from people's phones to confidently make loans to people who don't have traditional credit scores. Plus, how they prevent fraud and avoid bias. 

We'll also explore the wild ways that Branch is experimenting with Generative AI, including how they are creating “future synthetic data” that they believe will predict how users will save and spend in the future. 

Takeaways:

• Branch uses AI to confidently lend to people without traditional credit scores
• Branch was built on traditional machine learning models – the name “Branch” derives in part from the “random forest” approach – and now is adding Generative AI approaches to the mix
• Branch is using GenAI to create “future synthetic data” that predicts how people will spend and save in the years to come. As Matt says, “it’s kind of a wild idea” and it’ll take a few years to see how predictive the approach is
• To avoid bias, lend to lots of people no matter what the data says. It will teach you what the “natural loss rate” is and prevent you from training your model on customers you’ve already selected as creditworthy.
• Preventing fraud is the biggest challenge. And you can go from zero fraud to massive fraud over a weekend if fraudsters discover a vulnerability.
• Branch is hugely successful in India, because of the approach it developed in Africa: lend very small amounts to lots of people and, as people repay, offer them larger loans. 
• Branch failed in Mexico, because the user experience of repaying the loan (visiting a local shop) was too difficult; meanwhile another reason for success in India is the country’s recent rollout of a nationwide mobile payments system (UPI). Plus, willingness to repay in India is naturally very high. 

Key Moments:

• (02:33) - Founding Kiva and its rise from a side project to a worldwide non-profit

CRAFTED. is brought to you in partnership with Docker, which helps developers build, share, run and verify applications anywhere – without environment confirmation or management. More than 20 million developers worldwide use Docker's suite of development tools, services and automations to accelerate the delivery of secure applications. 

CRAFTED. is produced by Modern Product Minds, where CRAFTED. host Dan Blumberg and team can help you take a new product from zero to one... and beyond. We specialize in early stage product discovery, growth, and experimentation. Learn more at modernproductminds.com 

Subscribe to CRAFTED., follow the show, and sign up for the newsletter 👉 crafted.fm