FYI - For Your Innovation

When you’re in the middle of a crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic, getting timely test results is imperative. Unfortunately, laboratory testing does not scale well due to its centralized testing infrastructure. It also requires sample transportation, complicated equipment, and technical expertise, all of which lead to high costs and time delays that are incompatible with problems that require immediate answers. Today on the show, we talk with Khalid Alam, Founder and CEO of Stemloop, a privately-held company that is currently focused on developing cell-free biosensors to solve challenges in biomanufacturing, environmental monitoring, and human health. Tuning in, you’ll learn more about Khalid’s career, how he became interested in biochemistry and biotech, and how Stemloop’s cell-free biosensors will monitor and fortify water supplies around the world. We discuss how the biotech space has evolved over the past few decades, why doing projects at scale is so beneficial, and how the cost of DNA sequencing has plummeted in recent years. Khalid also delves into the crisis that the US is currently experiencing with lead in their water supply, the challenges of solving this problem, and the rapid tests that Stemloop is building for household taps. Today’s episode offers an exciting look into the world of testing and is full of important insights on advancements in biotech. Tune in to hear it all!

• An overview of Khalid’s career journey in biotech and biochemistry.

Saman Farid believes that robots are a means to an end and while their importance is derived from the output they create, many companies are focused solely on the hardware itself. In this episode, we are joined by Saman Farid, the CEO of Formic which is a privately held Robotics as a Service (RaaS) company that focuses on the output rather than the hardware. He sheds light on the concept of Robotics as a Service and what this really means. On today’s episode, you’ll hear about the barriers to robot adoption in manufacturing, the development of technologies that make it possible to use industrial robots in a collaborative way, the challenges of implementation in this field, and how the declining costs of hardware are opening up more opportunities in this sector. You’ll also learn more about why Saman believes that in the future, companies will either be building new robots, or operating them and generating value from them, but not both. To hear what excites Saman the most about the advancement of robotics in the next five years and why he believes that robots are not stealing jobs but creating more, listen now!

• Saman Farid’s thoughts on the concept of Robotics as a Service and what this really means.

In this week’s episode, we are featuring another segment from our Big Ideas Summit 2022. Click here to view the entire presentation, including the section referenced in this episode. In this segment, Brett Winton, ARK’s Director of Research, discusses how our five innovation platforms of artificial intelligence, robotics, blockchain technology, energy storage, and DNA sequencing are converging, and what impact this convergence might have on how quickly each platform evolves in the future. On today’s episode, you’ll hear the composite forecast of the 14 technologies that ARK focuses on and the aggregate market cap appreciation that ARK anticipates accruing across each. Brett offers his take on the future of Robotaxis, reusable rockets, genomics, public blockchain, and digital wallets, among other things. To hear ARK’s predictions on what will be some of the most economically productivity-generating innovations of all time, tune in today!

• An introduction to how the innovation platforms of artificial intelligence, robotics, blockchain technology, energy storage, and DNA sequencing are converging.

Dr. Agnieszka Czechowicz is driven by her passion for making an impact and changing the way that care is provided. Throughout her career she has taken science and translated it into medicines, many of which are having helping patients. Agnieszka has worked with a wide range of companies, from those that do gene editing to those that focus on hearing and balance disorders. However, her main area of research is in the field of hematopoietic stem cells. In today’s episode, Agnieszka explains the importance of these cells, and the benefits of the hematopoietic stem cells transplants. Agnieszka’s interest in transplant medicine began at a young age, and her passion for the field continues to grow year after year. Tune in today to hear about how Agnieska is contributing to the transformation of the medical field!

• An overview of Dr. Agnieszka Czechowicz’s incredible career.

The world is currently experiencing a multitude of historic events, from a global pandemic to the confounding invasion of Ukraine, to an ever-increasing rise in climate-related disasters. Here to help us unravel the influence of these events, as well as broader geopolitical trends on innovation, is a critically acclaimed author and geopolitical analyst, Peter Zeihan. His latest book The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization looks into the wave of deglobalization the world is currently experiencing and what this means for the future of energy, finance, manufacturing, and innovation as we move through the coming decades. Today, you’ll hear an overview of Peter’s geopolitical worldview, how he expects deglobalization to affect innovation in the US and abroad, as well as some of the challenges facing green tech and its applications. We also delve into how authoritative governments can limit connection in the modern world, why nuclear power is a necessary part of our global future, as well as the merits and shortcomings of a decentralized currency like Bitcoin.

• Get to know today’s guest Peter Zeihan, Geopolitical Strategist and author.

Today on the show we discuss our Tesla Valuation model and how we came to our 2026 price target for a Tesla share. You will hear from three analysts on how they constructed the valuation, their methodology, and what they project for 2026. Tasha Keeney shares her thoughts on why electric is the future of autonomous technology, Will Summerlin unpacks the potential opportunities for AI within foundational models, and Sam Korus explains why batteries are the single biggest cost component in Tesla’s vehicles. We also cover the results of the Monte Carlo analysis, with an overview of how it functions, and delve into the five key inputs that are the main drivers of this model. Today’s conversation offers insights into our dynamic valuation model!

Read the full valuation blog here.

• Introducing our latest Tesla Valuation model and 2026 price target.

DISCLOSURE

The forecasted performance and price estimates herein are subject to revision by ARK and provided solely as a guide to current expectations. There can be no expectation that the specific security will achieve such performance or that there will be a return of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FORECASTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND HIGHLY SPECULATIVE, AND PRESENT MANY RISKS AND LIMITATIONS.  The recipient should not consider these estimated prices alone in making an investment decision. While ARK believes that there is a sound basis for the forecasts presented, no representations are made as to their accuracy, and there can be no assurance that such forecasts or returns will be achieved by the specific security.

The recipient is urged to use extreme caution when considering the forecasted performance, as it is inherently subjective and reflects ARK’s inherent bias toward higher expected returns. Any higher returns should be viewed as a measure of the relative risk of such investments, with higher forecasted performance generally reflecting greater risk. There is no guarantee that any results will align with the forecasted performance, and they might not be predictive.  Some or all results may be substantially lower than projected results and, as with any investment, it is possible that you could lose money.

FORECASTED performance results (single security model simulation forecasts) have many inherent limitations. A recipient account might or might not hold this single security, and the account performance will be affected in proportion to its holding size and the amount of price fluctuation over time. No representation is being made that any client account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses tied to a security in the security model forecasts. In fact, there could be significant differences between these forecasted performance results and the actual results realized.

Forecasted performance has not been achieved by the security, and like all modeled, projected or hypothetical performance, it is important to note that there are multiple versions of a model, and ARK has a conflict of interest in that we have an incentive to show you the best performing results. These forecasts rely on models, which calculate hypothetical performance. Several of the limitations of hypothetical performance models include: 1) reliance on a variety of data obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable, but might be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete and ARK does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from any third party, 2) potential inclusion of inherent model creation biases, data discrepancies and/or calculation errors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, 3) NO reflection of the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on investment decisions that would have been in actual portfolios being managed at the time and do not involve market risk, and 4) NO guarantee of future investment results. The forecasted results rely on assumptions, forecasts, estimates, modeling, algorithms and other data input by ARK, some of which relies on third-parties, that could be or prove over time to be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete.

The forecasted returns are based on a variety of criteria and assumptions, which might vary substantially, and involve significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis that reflect our own expectations and biases, which might prove invalid or change without notice. It is possible that other foreseeable events that were not taken into account could occur. The forecasted performance results contained herein represent the application of the simulation models as currently in effect on the date first written above, and there can be no assurance that the models will remain the same in the future or that an application of the current models in the future will produce similar results because the relevant market and economic conditions that prevailed during the performance period will not necessarily occur. The results will not be updated as the models change, or any information upon which they rely changes. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the public equity security specifically that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of forecasted performance results, all of which can adversely affect actual results. For these reasons, forecasted performance results will differ, and could differ significantly from actual results. FORECASTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION AND PRESENTED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY.

While ARK’s current assessment of the subject company may be positive, please note that it might be necessary for ARK to liquidate or reduce position sizes prior to the company attaining any forecasted valuation pricing due to a variety of conditions including, but not limited to, client specific guidelines, changing market conditions, investor activity, fundamental changes in the company’s business model and competitive landscape, headline risk, and government/regulatory activity. Additionally, ARK does not have investment banking, consulting, or any type of fee-paying relationship with the subject company.

Long before the concepts of the Metaverse and cryptocurrency became widely understood, Second Life was already a thriving virtual metropolis running off its own monetary system. In today’s episode, we have the pleasure of hearing from its inventor, Philip Rosedale, about how technology has evolved since he founded Second Life, and how he hopes it is going to continue to evolve in the future. Angie Dalton also joins in on the conversation to share her perspective on what is going on in the virtual world. Our conversation covers everything from avatars to the uncanny valley to the potential of the Metaverse to eliminate loneliness, so don’t miss this one!

• Philip’s two main interests that catalyzed the founding of Second Life.

The FinTech industry has had its fair share of young entrepreneurs, but few are quite as interesting as Jared Isaacman, a New Jersey native and high school dropout who founded his first startup when he was just 16. Today, Jared is the CEO and Chairman of Shift4 Payments, a publicly held leading provider of integrated payment processing and technology solutions, and a cofounder of Draken International, which provides mission-critical commercial military flight services to the US Department of Defense. While others reach for the sky, Jared aspires to infinity and beyond as a commercial astronaut, with his personally funded Inspiration4 venture becoming the first all-civilian mission to space when it launched in September 2021. Inspiration4 doubles as a worldwide charity campaign, calling attention to the mission of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, for which Jared has raised over $240 million. In today’s episode, you’ll learn more about the upcoming Polaris Dawn mission, which is set to launch in the fourth quarter of 2022. Listen in as Jared shares his passion for spaceflight to further human space exploration, some of the tangible philosophies that he took from SpaceX, and the additional business models he believes could arise from reusable rocket ships, as well as his recommended reads and more!

• An introduction to Jared Isaacman: entrepreneur, philanthropist, and civilian astronaut.

Emily Fassi stumbled across the field of genetic counseling when she was trying to figure out what she could do with her biology degree. Today, she is the Lead Genetic Counselor for the St. Luke’s Health System, specializing in hereditary cancer predisposition. Since genetic counseling came into existence as a profession, it has evolved an enormous amount, and continues to change at a rapid rate. In this episode, Emily explains what her role as a genetic counselor entails, why this work is so important, where the main limitations lie, and what she hopes the field will look like in the future. Emily’s passion for the genetic counseling realm is palpable, and this episode is full of fascinating information about a relatively little-known field which will intrigue medical and non-medical professionals alike!

• Emily explains what her work as a genetic counselor entails.

The technology for geothermal heating and cooling of homes has been around for decades, but several factors have prevented this technology from scaling in the United States — until recently. The heating and cooling of buildings is responsible for around 20% of US greenhouse gas emissions, and a greater awareness of the negative impacts of these gasses, combined with an increase in the price of fossil fuels, has created conditions for geothermal energy companies to thrive. Today’s guest is Kathy Hannun, the founder and President of Dandelion Energy, which is privately held, and the largest home geothermal company in the United States. Before founding Dandelion, she was a Rapid Evaluator at X, Alphabet’s innovation lab, where she focused on identifying business opportunities to harness technology for large-scale positive impact. She initiated Dandelion as an X project and then launched it into an independent startup company in May 2017. In today’s episode you will learn about the process behind heating/cooling your house in this way, and the money a household might save by going this route. Kathy also explains how she became involved in the geothermal energy space, and how she and her team are overcoming the challenges of working in this rapidly growing industry.

• Kathy explains how geothermal heating and cooling works in a home environment.