Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

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Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch episodes

September 11, 2022 Russian northern front collapse: Latest on Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Twitter Space recording from September 10, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch and Michael Kofman on the implications of the rapid collapse of the Russian forces pocket in northern Ukraine and what the future holds for Ukrainian counteroffensives in the north and south
43 min
August 31, 2022Why the global food shortage is a myth
Was there ever a grain shortage crisis caused by the Russian blockade of Ukrainian exports?
Dmitri Alperovitch gets the real story from Dr. Scott Irwin, Professor of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois and an international leader in the field of agricultural economics. Dr. Irwin discusses the true state of grain markets and the causes behind the recent increase in food prices and what can be done about it.
Topics covered:
How likely is the current grain crisis to lead to famine?
What is the impact of resumption of Ukraine's grain exports after a deal brokered by Turkey?
Why were wheat prices increasing even before the Russian invasion?
Ukraine's wheat is a tiny fraction of global production. Why is it having such outsize effects on price?
Can substitute crops make up for missing wheat?
What will be the impact of fertilizer shortage on food markets?
What can governments do to alleviate future food crises?
Episode produced by Patrick Gray (risky.biz)
39 min
August 22, 2022Ukraine’s cheap drones wreak havoc in Crimea
Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military facilities and logistics in Crimea with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis). And Dmitri's theory on the Russian masterplan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
Topics covered:
$10,000 Chinese UAVs are Ukraine's new asymmetric weapon in the war of attrition in Ukraine
Russia's plan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
Ukrainian planned counteroffensives and the state of Russian progress in the Donbas
Why is Moscow changing commanders in this war every few months?
Effects of Russian shadow mobilization campaign on current war and long-term force structure
Russian artillery ammo stocks
Russian attempts to rebuild Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) inventory
1 hr 3 min
August 03, 2022Slicing the Sausage: Ukraine’s Upcoming Counteroffensive
In this podcast Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, about Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive.
Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis, also joins the show to share his latest analysis of what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine.
Topics covered:
Ukraine's weapons needs for a successful counteroffensive and the challenges they will face
Strategic objective of the counteroffensive and how can it help turn the tide of the war
Why now is the window of opportunity for a counteroffensive and why it may be narrowing
How Ukraine preserved their best troops despite high combat losses
The strategic importance of partisan movement in the south and its command and control by Ukrainian special forces
The story of how Russians captured Luhansk oblast by shelling their own forces
How maneuver defense stopped the Russian offensive in the Donbas
How the Russians underestimated Ukrainian forces and the importance of NATO training
The lessons the Russians have learned since their earlier failures and their plan in the third phase of the war
Why long range missiles are not currently a priority for Ukraine
Morale impact of Russian apparent torture and execution of POWs
54 min
July 29, 2022How Russia Engineered the Perfect Gas Crisis
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with energy markets and russian oil and gas sector expert Sergey Vakulenko (formerly with Gazprom Neft, Royal Dutch Shell and IHS Markit) about how Russia is engineering an energy crisis in Europe, with spillover effects all over the world.
Topics covered:
When it comes to gas, who needs whom more: Russia or Europe?
What are Europe's options to survive the winter without Russian gas? Which countries will be most affected?
What game is Russia playing by cutting Nord Stream 1 flows?
Why are Poland, Finland and Bulgaria cutoff from direct purchases of Russian gas while others like Germany are still buying?
How long would it take to build a pipeline from the Russian gas fields in the West to China to remove dependence on European customers?
Can Russia continue to operate and maintain old wells and drill new ones without Western servicing firms?
What is the impact of Russian gas cutoffs on fertilizer production and global food supplies?
How much is it hurting Russia to sell oil at substantial discount to China and India?
Follow the speakers on Twitter @DAlperovitch, @SergeyVakulenk0
55 min
July 18, 2022Why Giving Ukraine F-16s Makes Sense
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Retired UK Air Marshall Greg Bagwell, former Deputy Commander of Operations at RAF Air Command, about how the West can provide Ukraine with modern aircraft platforms such as F-16s.
Topics covered:
Why F-16 is one of the best planes to provide to Ukraine today
How to transport planes into Ukraine without triggering Russian retaliation
How Ukraine pilots can be trained within weeks on the basic missions most needed for current phase of the war
How to quickly train and assist remotely the ground crews that will maintain the fleet
How Ukraine can be helped in repair and replacement of parts for the planes
What munitions can be provided for the missions to be undertaken
What options exist for helicopter aid
40 min
July 11, 2022Ukraine’s HIMARS edge may not last: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (July 10, 2022)
July 10, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.
Topics covered:
HIMARS: Are they making a strategic difference or will Russia find a way to blunt their effects?
Can ATACMS 300km range missiles break the Russian Black Sea Blockade?
Why was Russia so obsessed with trying (unsuccessfully) to hold Snake Island?
Is Russia executing a real operational pause before another assault on Donetsk oblast in Donbas?
How long will it take for Russia to rebuild its combat losses?
Are prisoners with military experience the future of the Russian military?
What's happening with the Russian Kharkiv offensive?
Has Ukraine launched the Kherson offensive or are we still seeing just preparations for one?
How much is the war really costing Russia?
39 min
June 27, 2022How Putin is dragging Belarus into the war: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (June 26, 2022)
June 26, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Henry Schlottman (OSINT war analyst, US army veteran) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered:
Is Belarus getting dragged into this war?
Who is running Russia's war? Why are commanders being replaced?
How best can Ukraine use the new HIMARS artillery systems that are now arriving? What difference are they likely to make on the battlefield?
Is Russia in danger of running out of ammunition?
Is Russian advance stalling in the Donbas?
Can Ukraine target the Crimean Bridge bridge and what are the implications of their strikes on energy and rail infrastructure in Russia and Crimea?
Is Russia still having logistics issues in the Donbas offensive?
How is Wagner performing in the fight and why did Prigozhin get a Hero of Russia medal?
Can Western defense industrial base keep up with Ukrainian ammo and weaponry needs and expenditures?
Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael, @HN_Schlottman
1 hr 1 min
June 20, 2022 The War of Attrition: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (June 19, 2022)
June 19, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered:
- Near-term prospects for Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south to take back Kherson
- Will the new Western artillery systems arrive in time to make a difference for the current fight in Donbas
- Why is maintenance the biggest issue for Ukrainian deliveries of new Western weapons
- How fast can the Ukrainian ports be demined to allow for sea export of grain and oilseeds
- Why haven't we heard more about the impact of Switchblade kamikaze drones that everyone was so excited about just weeks ago
- What is the state of exhaustion/force rotations on Russian and Ukrainian sides
- What's happening on Snake Island right now
- Does Russia have the troops to make trouble for Moldova or Ukraine from Transnistria
- Is Russia running out of Infantry Fighting Vehicles and artillery shells
- Is a ceasefire likely in the near future
- What are the lessons learned from this war for the US military
Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael
53 min
June 06, 2022 The Long War: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (June 5, 2022)
June 5, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Rob Lee (Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.
Topics covered:
- Latest on the war in the Donbas, Russian progress and Ukrainian counteroffensives
- Will the Western military aid (howitzers, MLRS/HIMARS, armor, UAVs...) be enough to help Ukraine in this stage of the fight?
- Why is the rate of Russian casualties appearing to decrease from earlier in the war?
- Can current high rate of Ukrainian casualties be sustained?
- Are the Russians performing better at close-air support and electronic warfare than they had been earlier?
- Putin's war on global food supplies
- Can the Ukrainian ports be safely demined now?
- How long can this phase of the war continue?
- Russia: Bad military or bad plan?
- Russian force design: why they weren't prepared for this fight
- Shadow mobilization options for Russia
Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85
Recent article by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussed on the podcast: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/
1 hr 4 min

About Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

From the publisher's feed

In-depth conversations on the conflicts and rivalries shaping our world, explored in the detail the subject deserves. Dmitri Alperovitch speaks with the military commanders, intelligence officials, diplomats, historians, and strategists who shape events and study them closely — on the war in Ukraine, strategic competition with China and the future of Taiwan, nuclear deterrence, sanctions and semiconductors, and the changing character of warfare. Throughout, the aim is to understand not merely what has happened, but why — and what is likely to follow.