Global Research Unlocked

Consumer resilient but gradually slowing

The Bank of America Institute joins for a discussion on the many data sources they examine, sources that offer a multi-dimensional look at the consumer. Data suggests the US consumer has weakened somewhat since the start of the year, with household spending growth falling to the lowest level since February 2021. Some of the weakness is likely temporary and follows what was a very strong start to the year, and it's noteworthy that total payments, which goes beyond credit and debit card spending, are stronger than card spending. We also discuss regional differences in job growth, how spending in the Midwest has held up better than elsewhere and offer reasons why female labor participation continues to lag.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Economic concerns and increased funding costs may combine to help slow a resilient US economy

The consumer economy has remained strong in the face of rate hikes and labor demand has remained resilient. But recent stresses in the banking sector give Michael Gapen more confidence in his view that the US will see a mild recession later this year. Banks had started to tighten lending by the end of the 4Q and a combination of economic concerns as well as higher cost funding and more regulations could lead to even more tightening. Inflows into money markets are notable and probably don't reverse until the Fed is cutting rates again according to Mark Cabana.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Blockchain innovation and app development continues

Blockchains are implementing innovative but differentiated approaches to improving the tradeoff between scalability, decentralization and security. We expect blockchains that expand functionality and incentivize development to become attractive for developers in the near term. Over the longer term, we expect blockchains that prioritize usability and effectively market themselves to gain market share by attracting a robust and diverse ecosystem of applications that drives adoption, network effects and cash flows. Despite last year's digital asset correction, development continues for Layer 1 distributed ledgers and blockchains, Layer 2 scaling solutions and oracle networks and Layer 3 applications with real world uses.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

We're only tapping into 1% of global data, artificial intelligence should allow us to make use of much more

Generative AI models such as ChatGPT have dominated headlines and adoption has been particularly swift. But generative AI can do much more than write college essays. Haim Israel thinks this is an "iPhone moment" where a new technology exists that will revolutionize our lives more than many of us currently appreciate. Justin Post describes how generative AI can enhance social media content and even improve monetization of search. Vivek Arya believes the greater need for processing will boost demand for semiconductors and semicap equipment.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved

Chinese resorts benefiting from pent up demand but international leisure destinations will gradually pick up

China's COVID reopening unleashed nearly 3 years of pent up business and international travel demand. So far, domestic travel has dominated the recovery as international travel has been hampered by passport and visa frictions. Nathan Gee believes that as these constraints ease international travel can recover to 50-60% of normal by year-end. Shaun Kelley explains that while Chinese tourism remains fairly small for the US, gaming markets like Las Vegas could benefit and recovery incrementally helps LA and SF, markets which have recovered more slowly than others.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

EU banks seeing various factors change for the better

Since the Global Financial Crisis, investors have avoided European banks as the companies navigated the low to negative interest rate backdrop and greater regulatory hurdles. But with interest rates having risen and disciplined cost management, European banks have become profitable again thanks in part to a surplus of low cost deposits. Alastair joins us to discuss how European banks are now better capitalized, poised to lend again, expand their securities books and yet valuations are still compelling vs history. And while a recession isn't off the table, banks are well positioned for the sort of shallow recession that could come.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Improvement coming but there's much more to go

In the US, more than 6 million Americans are living with Alzheimer's disease and by 2060, Alzheimer's disease cases are predicted to rise to an estimated 14 million people. However, a number of therapeutics are entering the marketplace this year showing promise of reducing plaque in the brain and a slowing of cognitive decline. Data so far suggests relatively modest improvement but Geoff believes a combination of some of these therapies and greater innovation in diagnostics can lead to greater improvements over the next 5-10 years. Charlie predicts there will be multiple players in the Alzheimer therapeutic space and with pricing trending downward, the cost benefits may lead to a multi-billion dollar market.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

CBDCs: The future of money and payment

We view digital currencies, such as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), as a natural evolution of money and payments. Digital currencies and programmable payments already exist, but the underlying CBDC infrastructure is what makes these digital currencies so transformative and will likely change how and when value is transferred over the next 15 years. There are currently 114 central banks exploring CBDCs, up from 35 in May 2020, representing 58% of countries globally and over 95% of global GDP. However, central banks and governments can't build new financial systems based on distributed ledger technology alone and have indicated that they will leverage the private sector to drive digital asset innovation. Our view is that CBDCs have the potential to revolutionize global financial systems.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Weaker labor the key to lower spend and inflation

Consumer spending is challenged by a number of well-discussed factors including inflation and fading stimulus but there are some positives too. The prices of many goods are down from highs, minimum wages for several states rose at the start of the year and Social Security payments for '23 enjoyed an unusually big boost. Aditya Bhave and Robby Ohmes join us to discuss how these various drivers net out, the outlook for higher and lower income consumers, how the expected slowdown in labor markets is necessary to slow wages and how job losses should have a bigger impact on spend than the wealth effect had in 2022. Mike Dick from Specialist Sales will get into more detail with Robby on issues including to what degree a stretched consumer is trading down and whether it becomes harder for suppliers to push through price increases from here.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Major R&D requirements mean obesity market likely to be dominated by large biopharmas

The CDC estimates the US obesity prevalence is nearly 42%, making it a common and costly disease for Americans, especially as it is associated with other health afflictions. However, a new generation of obesity therapeutics is set to enter the market over the next few years and these offer greater weight loss than prior generations, fewer side effects and may offer cardiovascular benefits. But the initial costs for drugs aren't low, especially considering how many people could be taking them. Geoff and Alex join us to discuss the pipeline for obesity therapeutics, when we can expect to see these drugs impact results for large biopharma and what could stand in the way of achieving what have become fairly optimistic expectations.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

 

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.