Inflation is positive for Japan and BoJ wants it to sustain

Japan's economy has been stuck in a negative feedback loop of low growth, low inflation and interest rates since the asset bubble burst in the late 1980s. An environment of little to no inflation reduced the desire to raise wages, to invest and to spend. But the return of inflation can mean corporate investments in productivity, in growth and a consumer desire to spend. As the purchasing power of cash erodes, investors could reallocate into Japanese equities and with higher rates, Japanese bonds may start to look attractive relative to foreign bonds, according to Izumi Devalier. Machinery analyst Kenjin Hotta highlights the particularly attractive Japanese factory automation sector. One that benefits from global supply chain shifts, investment in EVs and where growth can be another positive for the Japanese economy.

 

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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Lithium price likely to fall and take battery costs down too

Lithium is one of the more abundant minerals found in the Earth's crust and relative to other metals markets, like copper, it's still fairly small in size, which helps to explain the volatility. Even though global EV (electric vehicle) penetration is expected to rise to 40% by the end of the decade, Matt DeYoe sees an oversupply of lithium in 2024 and 2025, pressuring prices for the metal and providing cost relief for battery suppliers and auto OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) that are working to provide consumers with more affordable EV options. But ultimately we do expect lithium prices to balance out at a fairly high level, relative to history, and the abundance of lithium supply means that, over the next few years, batteries are unlikely to be a constraint when it comes to vehicle availability.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

You can't fly to Ithaca when you're in Italy

US network airlines have benefited from booming demand for international travel this summer. Revenues for US to Europe routes are 45% higher than pre-pandemic, helped by pent up demand and a lifting of all restrictions. Domestic beach and mountain destinations were great options in 2021 but have lost share as people set their sights abroad. But Andrew Didora believes we should see some normalization this Fall as people who had traveled internationally return to domestic routes. International profitability is well above pre-pandemic levels but that may not last. Cruise lines have lagged the recovery pace of airlines and things only returned to normal this year, so there's likely more of a recovery ahead. Plus, relative to airlines, cruise lines do tend to have more bookings visibility and less exposure to volatile fuel prices.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

AI to drive productivity and margin expansion over time

Companies have faced rising cost pressures as they emerged from the short-lived COVID downturn. The price of raw materials, labor and money has all risen but there are positives that come with this changing dynamic-companies are forced to focus on efficiency. Savita Subramanian believes we are at the forefront of a productivity boom driven partly by AI but also corporate necessity. Savita points out that the pace of margin deterioration has slowed since 1Q23 and she expects to see stabilizing margins going forward. A.I. helps growth and tech but also should help efficiency leaders in less efficient sectors.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Bond market expects the Fed to get the job done

Despite all the talk of sticky, structurally higher inflation, Meghan Swiber and the US Rates Strategy team find that after disaggregating the yield curve the message from rates markets may be a bit different than the popular discourse. Yes, the yield curve inversion suggests the market is pricing in Fed rate cuts. But looking at implied real rates suggests these cuts are expected because inflation should come down to the Fed's target, not because of a big slowdown in the economy. As inflation falls, real rates become more positive and the Fed reacts by cutting. We'll also discuss positioning in Treasuries and long term inflation expectations.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Demand for new homes and single-family rentals should remain strong even in a mild recession

Rental markets saw booming demand as people migrated and the economy recovered from COVID lows. But now, certain markets are facing high apartment supply, recent rent increases have made apartments less affordable and the consumer is less flush. Josh Dennerlein discusses apartment risks in the Sunbelt, why the single family rental market is generally more attractive than multi-family and why New York City rents are so strong. Housing analyst Rafe Jadrosich doesn't expect the millennial housing tailwind to become a headwind until the end of the decade. For now, demand is strong, the outlook for housing starts compelling and consumers and builders are both benefitting from what have been declining raw materials costs.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Tokenization of traditional assets accelerates

Token prices have gone up, down and up again, but the development of distributed ledgers and blockchains has accelerated throughout the volatility. The technology is maturing as public permissionless blockchains become faster and cheaper; and as private permissioned distributed ledgers emerge, that enables financial institution and corporate use cases required for regulatory compliance, privacy and scalabilty. Distributed ledgers and blockchains have powered trillions of dollars in tokenized asset transfers, but the disruption that we expect across every industry has only just begun. An evolution of infrastructure is occurring that is likely to transform financial and non-financial infrastructure and public and private financial markets over the next 5 to 15 years.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

The bots are here to help

For software companies, generative AI can add efficiencies to product development but the revenue side is where things can get even more interesting. For example, digital content design software largely serves professional designers, and thanks to proliferation of Internet advertising, social media and web presence, that market has grown nicely. But AI can help open these design tools to a much larger group, allowing consumers to, say, come up with custom designs for birthday party invites and club logos. Brad Sills discusses areas within software likely to benefit from AI, those that are threatened and why platform software vendors may be advantaged over point solutions as AI proliferates.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Treasury supply to hit $1 trillion over the coming months

The debt ceiling drama has finally come to a close as Washington signed legislation to raise the debt ceiling and avert default. But the next chapter abruptly follows and involves $1T of Treasury Bill issuance over the next 3 months, 5x the average annual supply. Mark Cabana discusses the impact that may have on shorter term Treasuries, the outlook for long dated bonds and whether the agreed upon spending caps will dissuade any of the Treasury bears.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Mine-d the compelling long term story for metals

Demand for metals is expected to ramp further as the world transitions to greener and more sustainable energy. But mining and processing more of these metals will require substantial capex and we'll likely need higher metals prices to spur that investment. Metals strategist Michael Widmer believes we need to invest around $160 billion per year, well above the $90 billion we currently spend. Investment in the electrical grid will have to increase as well, but these investments are currently harder for many regulators to stomach as consumers are already pressured by rising costs for everything from groceries to car payments. We discuss bottlenecks on the way to net zero and how the energy transition may also usher in changes like fixed price power bills.

 

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

 

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.