Global Security Briefing

This episode explores the future of UK–EU relations in the light of current challenges.

In the spring of 2021, the Integrated Review signalled the UK's future approach to European security post-Brexit, with an ambitious agenda for 'Global Britain'. Over two years on, there is a palpable sense that the UK may have turned a corner in its relations with the EU, with the 'Windsor Framework' agreement in early 2023 ending the most bitter Brexit dispute. Perhaps for the first time since the 2016 vote to leave the EU, the UK can begin to look ahead with greater confidence to its place in Europe and the wider world.

Host Neil Melvin ponders with Richard Whitman, Director of the Global Europe Centre and Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent, whether the UK has found a new post-Brexit foreign and security policy, and discusses how the UK is approaching wider European security framework questions such as NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.

Over a year and a half after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and with both sides incurring significant losses, is the conflict coming to a standstill?

In February 2022, Moscow aimed to seize Ukraine quickly. But 20 months later, the war grinds on inconclusively, with untold human suffering.

Both sides are looking to restock, rearm and mobilise new troops. Ukraine is now coming up against serious constraints on what more can be provided from Western stocks, and there is growing political unease in Europe and the US about the implications of a long-term commitment to Kyiv.

Is the conflict heading for deadlock, and if so, what are the implications for the region? What is the risk of a protracted war? And how can Russia best be managed and deterred in the medium and long term?

Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Mark Galeotti, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and Principal Executive Director of Mayak Intelligence, as well as Honorary Professor at University College London's School of Slavonic and East European Studies, to discuss some of these questions.

As we explore the evolving nature of South Korean foreign and security policies, we ask whether the country is emerging as a more significant international actor.

South Korea's foreign and security policies have traditionally been defined by regional interests and, above all, the unresolved conflict with North Korea. However, in recent years, South Korea has expanded its foreign policy horizons. In 2022, it adopted its own Indo-Pacific Strategy. Seoul has also backed sanctions against Russia in support of Ukraine's independence. In addition, it has actively supported the G7's coordination of the response to the war, and the South Korean president has attended recent NATO summits.

This new foreign policy direction is divisive domestically. In this episode, host Neil Melvin asks Professor Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Head of the Department of European and International Studies and Professor of International Relations at King's College London, about the nature of South Korea as a foreign policy actor. How should Seoul seek to position itself in the rising confrontation between the US and its allies on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other?

In the final part of our examination of challenges to the Western liberal order, we take a look at the likely future shape of global security.

Previously on GSB, we asked Professor Stephen Walt whether an alternative international order, challenging the existing one, is emerging. We then had discussions with country experts sharing their analysis of the main challenges to the West across various parts of the world, and whether these regions will play significant roles in shaping the future international order.

To bring all these threads together, host Neil Melvin is joined by Paul Poast, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago and a non-resident fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. What might the future of global security look like? What sort of international order are we moving towards? And what are the risks in the emerging international order, including those of major wars?

In this episode , we turn to three key regions shaping the discussion around whether a counter-West order is emerging.

So far in our summer series, we've explored whether an alternative international order is challenging the global governance system established after the Second World War, and what the implications are for global security. Africa, Latin America and the Middle East hold unique viewpoints, and while each region has distinct historical, economic and political dynamics, they collectively contribute to the ongoing discourse and developments linked to global power shifts. These regions are also rapidly emerging as arenas in which Western and counter-West states are competing for influence and access to resources. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Carlos Solar, Tobias Borck and Simon Rynn from the International Security team at RUSI to consider how developments across these regions are shaping their role in a new world order.

In the second episode of our four-part summer series, we explore the role that Russia, China and Iran play in countering the Western-led international order.

Russia, China and Iran have become increasingly confrontational in both rhetoric and actions, advocating for alternative frameworks and principles that reflect and advance their own geopolitical interests.

They argue that we are witnessing a shift towards a multipolar world where power is more evenly distributed, and that this is the basis for a new global order. The war in Ukraine seems to have solidified not only the trilateral grouping as an anti-Western bloc, but also its resolve. Our host Neil Melvin is joined by Emily Ferris, Research Fellow at RUSI; Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI; and Philip Shetler-Jones, Thematic Coordinator, Crisis Management, Enhancing Security Cooperation In and With Asia (ESIWA) project, to discuss how these three players are shaping the new security landscape.

The first in a four-part summer series, this episode addresses the apparent weakening of the liberal international order established after the Second World War and the rise of a counter-West axis.

Since 1945, the liberal international order has been anchored by Western powers – centrally the US – promoting the principles of democracy, human rights, free trade and multilateralism. This order has played a central role in shaping global governance structures, including institutions like the UN, the World Bank, the IMF and NATO. However, in recent years, the liberal international order has faced numerous challenges. The relative decline of US power – characterised by economic shifts, political polarisation and domestic US concerns – has raised doubts about the US's willingness and ability to continue its global leadership role. And opportunities have emerged for other actors to assert themselves on the global stage.

In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Stephen Walt, the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School and a renowned scholar in the field of international relations, to discuss the future of the global order. Is an alternative world order emerging? Which countries are involved in a systematic challenge to the existing international order, and in what capacities?

As NATO leaders and experts gather for the Vilnius Summit, we consider the rapid changes to Europe's security environment.

Russia's war against Ukraine has undoubtedly transformed European security forever, but these developments are taking place in the context of wider regional shifts. While NATO and the EU are being strengthened, the continent is also seeing growing sub-regional security and defence cooperation, minilateralism and efforts at strategic autonomy. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Ivo Daalder, President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former US Ambassador to NATO, to discuss how the US views Europe's changing security and defence environment. What role will Washington seek to play in shaping the continent's future security arrangements?

With the Vilnius NATO summit fast approaching, we consider what arrangements need to be made to secure Ukraine's sovereignty.

The current focus of the international community is on sustaining and developing Ukraine's warfighting capabilities to defend its territory and repel the Russian aggression. But ahead of the July NATO summit in Vilnius, attention is also turning to the task of ensuring Ukraine's longer-term security, with pressure growing to grant Ukraine new security guarantees or even membership of NATO.

While it is difficult to predict the exact situation that will prevail when major combat ceases, Russia is likely to remain a long-term threat to Ukraine's sovereignty, society and economy, and the prospect of a return to full-scale war or a protracted conflict together with hybrid and disinformation operations remains high. In this episode, host Neil Melvin talks to Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Defence Minister of Ukraine from 2019 to 2020 and currently the Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies in Kyiv, about what arrangements need to be made to protect the future of Ukraine. What sort of security support will it need? What are the security arrangements that are being proposed at the Vilnius summit? And why are some NATO members reluctant to extend membership of the organisation to Ukraine?

Russia's war in Ukraine has brought into focus the enduring links between Moscow and Beijing. How will this tandem shape the future of global competition?

Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022, where they released a joint statement proclaiming their 'no limits' partnership. Three weeks later, Russia invaded Ukraine. Beijing has subsequently walked a careful and rather ambiguous line over the conflict, refusing to condemn the invasion and resisting Western pressure to isolate Russia on the one hand, while on the other hand appearing reluctant to provide Russia with the military assistance needed to tip the war in its favour.

Many observers suggest that one of the most significant outcomes of the war will be a closer but asymmetrical alliance between Moscow and Beijing, with Russia in a much-reduced position. In this episode, host Neil Melvin discusses with Emily Ferris, Research Fellow at RUSI, and Raffaello Pantucci, Senior Associate Fellow, how the war is affecting this bilateral relationship. Is China ready to back Russia financially and militarily? How deep is the trust between Moscow and Beijing?