China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party’s control and the market’s gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow George on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening and disclaimer

02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus

06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly

11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base

16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing

22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects

25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs

27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt

29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences

33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China tactics

38:01 – Belt & Road 2.0: fewer loans, more influence

42:56 – Capital controls and the ceiling on RMB internationalization

49:00 – Hong Kong’s evolving financial role

50:54 – CCP control after the plenum; succession optics

53:47 – Taiwan scenarios and risk contours

55:51 – Plateau vs. precipice: what could still break

57:54 – Career advice for macro and China analysis

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer