Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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0:00 Leaked Texts, Argy, Soybeans
4:02 Grain Stocks
9:12 Govt Shutdown and Markets
10:39 River Levels

🇦🇷 Trump & Milei Meeting
President Trump will meet Argentine President Javier Milei on October 14. Milei is seeking a $20B US credit swap to shore up Argentina’s dollar reserves. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed negotiations are underway, but leaked texts suggest frustration — Argentina suspended grain export taxes, sold soybeans to China, and critics say US farmers are footing the bill. 📉

🌽 Corn Stocks Report
USDA pegged Sept 1 corn stocks at 1.53B bu — down 13% YoY, but 15% above trade expectations. Dec25 corn fell 6¢ to $4.16, its lowest in a month. USDA also revised the 2024 corn crop +25M bu on higher harvested acres.

🌱 Soybeans & Wheat
Soy stocks came in a bit light, yet Nov25 beans still dropped 9¢ to $10.02 on weak export demand. Wheat futures fell as stocks topped both last year and expectations. USDA projects total wheat output at 1.98B bu, with winter wheat up 3% and spring wheat down 9%. 🌾

🏛️ Partial USDA Shutdown
A government shutdown is underway — essential functions continue but most reporting halts. It’s unclear if today’s EIA report, tomorrow’s export sales, or Friday’s CFTC data will be delayed. Roughly 41% of USDA staff remain on duty.

🚢 Mississippi River Issues
Historic low water levels — for the 4th year in a row — are disrupting grain shipments. Southbound flows are down 79% in a month. Draft restrictions and tow limits cut capacity, barge freight rates are climbing, and basis levels are under pressure.

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0:00 What Will Taiwan Buy?
3:20 Grain Stocks Report Today
4:33 Harvest Update
8:24 Soybean Shipment Problem
10:25 Better Demand for Russian Wheat
11:40 Flash Sales

🌎 Welcome back! Today’s focus: US–Taiwan trade talks, USDA’s Grain Stocks report, and fresh updates on harvest & exports.

🇹🇼 US–Taiwan Trade Spotlight
USDA’s Luke Lindberg is in Taiwan this week for trade negotiations.
Meetings include the Agribusiness Trade Mission and a roundtable with US ag reps.
Taiwan is the 8th largest market for US ag exports; the US is its top supplier.
Taiwan committed to $6.4B in US corn & soybeans over 4 years and $10B in total ag buys—but this is only in line with past purchases (~$3.8B last year).
Current tariffs on Taiwanese exports to the US sit at 20%.

📊 Grain Stocks Report (Sept 1)
Corn stocks are expected to be down 24% YoY.
Soybean stocks are estimated to be down 5.6%.
Wheat stocks seen up 2.6%.
Traders eye discrepancies between pre-report estimates and USDA’s prior carryout numbers.

🌽 Crop Progress & Conditions
Corn: 66% good-to-excellent (best since 2018), 18% harvested (avg: 19%).
Soybeans: 62% good-to-excellent, 19% harvested (avg: 20%).
Winter Wheat: 34% planted (avg: 36%), the slowest pace since 2016.

🚢 US Export Inspections
Corn: 1.5mmt (60M bu) → +10% WoW, +33% YoY.
Soybeans: 594k mt (22M bu) → +5% WoW, -13% YoY.
Wheat: 739k mt (27M bu) → -21% WoW, +34% YoY.

🌾 Global Wheat Watch
Russian wheat export prices rising for 2nd week.
Exports down 29% YoY (Jul–Sep).
Harvest nearly complete at ~87mmt. Forecast trimmed to 43.4mmt exports.

📢 Flash Sales
135,660mt corn → Mexico.
110,668mt corn → Unknown (2025/26 delivery).

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0:00 Mainstream Media and Soybeans
2:52 India Ethanol Possibilities
4:52 China Soy Imports
8:16 The Funds Hate Soybeans
9:12 Grain Stocks Report
10:37 Fast Brazil Soy Planting

📰 Soybean Headlines Everywhere
Over just the past 72 hours, mainstream outlets have been buzzing about U.S. soybeans—China’s absence from the U.S. market, farmer struggles, and Trump’s trade war have taken center stage. Coverage may have been sparked by Argentina’s recent “bailout” story and simultaneous soybean sales to China.

🇮🇳 U.S.–India Trade Standoff
Talks in Washington were described as “constructive” but ended without a deal. The U.S. wants India to stop buying Russian oil, while India refuses. Instead, India offered concessions like U.S. corn purchases for ethanol. India currently produces about 2.5B gallons of ethanol (mostly from sugarcane byproducts) versus the U.S. at ~17B gallons. With E20 now hit, India could grow to 3.2–3.7B gallons within five years, though its gasoline use is still far below the U.S.

🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Imports
USDA’s Beijing attaché holds the import forecast at 106mmt—down slightly from last year. Even though U.S. beans are about 10% cheaper than Brazil’s, tariffs and politics keep them out. China has reportedly even rejected shipments disguised as non-U.S. origin.

📊 Funds Go Net Short
CFTC data shows big speculators sold 16k corn contracts, 25k soybeans (swinging back net short), and 11k SRW wheat contracts. This marks the most bearish stance in six weeks.

📈 Grain Stocks Report Ahead
USDA will release September 1 stocks on Tuesday. Corn stocks are expected to be down sharply (-24% year-on-year), soybeans down 5.6%, and wheat up 2.6%. Traders are closely watching for differences from USDA’s last carryout estimates.

🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Surge
Soybean planting is racing ahead—4.2% complete vs. just 0.5% this time last year. That’s the fastest start ever, supported by steady rains and ideal conditions.

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👨‍🌾 Trump’s Farmer Aid Plan
President Trump says tariff revenue will be used to fund a new aid package for farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins noted the plan may resemble relief programs from Trump’s first term. Trump admitted farmers face short-term struggles but predicted long-term gains from tariffs.

🚢 China Buys Argentine Soybeans
China purchased ~40 cargoes (2.6mmt / 96 mil bu) of soybeans from Argentina in just two days after export taxes were lifted. Most shipments are set for Nov–Dec, when the US typically supplies China. So far, China hasn’t bought a single US soybean this marketing year—last year they bought 22.5mmt. Can other buyers replace lost Chinese demand?

⚖️ DOJ & USDA Investigate Farm Costs
The DOJ will team with USDA to review rising input costs like fertilizer and equipment, aiming to protect farmers from unfair pricing. Rollins also clarified there are no plans for beef producer payments, warning that government involvement distorts markets.

📊 Upcoming Grain Stocks Report
USDA’s Sept. 1 stocks report is due Tuesday. Estimates suggest corn stocks are down 24% year-over-year, soybeans down 5.6%, and wheat up 2.6%. Traders are watching how estimates compare with USDA’s recent old-crop carryout numbers.

🌍 Export Sales Update

Corn: 1.9mmt (76 mil bu), +56% from last week. Mexico led buying.

Soybeans: 724,500mt (27 mil bu), -22% from last week. Egypt top buyer.

Wheat: 539,800mt (20 mil bu), +43% from last week. Philippines led.

🔥 Drought Conditions
Latest USDA drought monitor shows:

Corn: 26% affected

Soybeans: 37%

Winter Wheat: 45%

Spring Wheat: 13%

Cattle: 24%
Drought persists in Missouri, Ohio, and Kentucky, while High Plains states saw improvement.

📢 Flash Sales
US exporters sold:

101,400mt soybean meal to Guatemala (2025/26)

312,956mt corn to Mexico (2025/26)

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0:00 "Make Argentina Great Again"
5:30 China Talks Soybeans
6:12 Production Cost Task Force
9:03 Day Trading is Stupid
11:23 Ethanol Production
12:23 Flash Sales

🇺🇸💰 US to Provide $20B Swap Line to Argentina
Washington is stepping in with a $20 billion swap line and potential bond purchases to help stabilize Argentina’s peso ahead of midterms. The peso and Argentine markets rallied on the news, but economists warn that true stability will require deeper reforms. 

🌾 Argentina Export Taxes Return
After just two days, Argentina hit its $7B cap on tax-free grain and soybean exports. The government has now reinstated the suspended export tax. China bought at least 20 cargoes of Argentine soybeans during the window.

🎉 NY Gala & Milei Recognition
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praised President Javier Milei at a gala in New York, saying Milei is working to “make Argentina great again.”

🇨🇳 China Pressures US on Tariffs
China’s commerce ministry urged the US to drop tariffs if it wants to expand soybean trade. Despite meetings with US Midwest leaders, China has yet to book US beans this marketing year.

🌽 Corn Growers Task Force
The National Corn Growers Association launched a task force to address farm profitability and rising costs. Farmers are now facing their third year of negative returns, with a fourth expected in 2026. 

📈 Day Trading Rule Change
Regulators plan to scrap the $25,000 minimum for pattern day trading. The new intraday margin rule will tie buying power to positions instead. Applies only to equities, not commodities. 

🍶 Ethanol Update
US ethanol output dropped to 1.02M bpd last week, down 2.9% on the week. Stocks are high, but margins remain positive across the Corn Belt. Charts below.

🚢 USDA Flash Sales
Exporters reported fresh sales of soybean meal to Guatemala and corn to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery.

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0:00 Subscribe!
0:56 Argentina Update
3:31 Argentine Crushers Aren't Happy
5:40 Secret Meeting? US/China
7:00 Trump at UN - Russia/Ukraine
9:36 USDA Cattle Plan
11:25 EU Deforestation Law
12:32 Fed Problems

🌱 China Buys Argentine Soybeans
China jumped on Argentina’s suspension of its 26% soybean export tax and purchased 10–15 cargoes for November delivery. Reports now suggest total purchases could be 20 cargoes this week alone. Normally, this business would have gone to the US, but the trade war has shifted flows. Argentina’s crushers warn that local supply is tightening, idle crushing capacity is rising, and jobs are being lost.

📈 Grain Market Reaction
Corn futures gained nearly 5 cents with Dec25 closing near $4.26. Soybeans edged higher to $10.12, while both Kansas City and Chicago wheat also finished stronger. Optimism tied to possible US-China trade progress provided a lift.

🤝 US-China Meeting
A Chinese trade envoy, Li Chenggang, met with US Midwest leaders in Beijing on Monday. Details are thin, but the meeting was confirmed by China’s Ministry of Commerce. It fueled fresh hopes for trade progress even as China avoids US soybeans.

🇺🇸 Trump’s Ukraine Shift
At the UN, Trump surprised leaders by saying Ukraine could win back land from Russia, a reversal from his earlier push for quick peace talks. This marks a potential shift in US policy, signaling stronger backing for Kyiv.

🐂 USDA Cattle Herd Plan
The USDA says it will soon launch a plan to help rebuild the US cattle herd, mentioned in a statement on screwworm control. No details yet, but the program could reshape beef supplies and pricing.

🌳 EU Deforestation Law Delay

Europe has postponed its anti-deforestation law again. The rules would restrict imports of soybeans, beef, and more. Admin hurdles and IT issues caused the delay, but costs could ripple across the supply chain once implemented.

💵 US Economy Update
Fed Chair Powell warned of upside inflation risks and downside jobs risk, leaving October’s rate decision uncertain. Tariffs are pushing prices higher, while labor supply shrinks under tighter immigration enforcement.

🌽 Flash Corn Sale
USDA reported a 5 million bushel corn sale to Mexico. Most will ship in 2025/26, with the rest in 2026/27.

👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and drop your thoughts in the comments. Staying informed helps you stay ahead in these fast-moving markets!

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0:00 Argentina News
6:56 Crop Conditions
11:05 Brazil Update
12:04 Grain Shipments
13:00 Cattle Rally


🌎 Argentina Suspends Export Taxes
Argentina halted export taxes on corn, soybeans, wheat, and more in a bid to boost sales and stabilize the peso. The suspension runs through October or until $7B in exports are declared. Analysts warn a wave of selling could trigger a supply glut. Argentina is a top corn exporter and the world’s largest shipper of soybean meal and oil.

💵 US Steps In
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is ready to use all necessary measures to help Argentina avoid another financial crisis after a sharp peso sell-off.

🌱 US Crop Conditions & Harvest
Corn: 66% good/excellent, the highest since 2018 for this week. 11% harvested.
Soybeans: 61% good/excellent, 9% harvested.
Winter wheat planting: 20% complete, the slowest since 2021.
Spring wheat harvest: 96% complete.

🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update
Soybeans: 0.9% planted, matching last year. Projected record 177.7 MMT crop.
First corn crop: 25% planted, just behind last year.

🚢 Export Shipments
Corn: 1.4 MMT inspected, up 16% vs. last year.
Soybeans: 484k MT, sharply lower from last week.
Wheat: 854k MT, stronger than expected.

🐂 Cattle Futures Surge
A New World screwworm case near the US-Mexico border pushed live and feeder cattle higher, with deferred feeders locking limit-up. Imports from Mexico remain restricted, tightening US supply.

📢 Flash Corn Sale
US exporters sold 320k MT of corn to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery.

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0:00 Trump/Xi Call
1:59 Tariff Revenue for Farmer Bailout
3:41 H-1B Visa Plan
6:42 2026 Acres
8:20 China Soy Imports
9:59 The Funds
10:47 Flash Sale
11:11 Cattle on Feed

🌎 Trump & Xi Set to Meet
President Trump will meet with Xi Jinping on October 31 in South Korea after a two-hour call on Friday. The two leaders discussed trade, fentanyl, and TikTok. Trump called the talks “productive” and plans to visit China early next year. Xi will visit the US later. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic on a trade deal. However, no mention of soybeans hurt US prices Friday, as China has yet to buy any beans this marketing year.

💰 Farm Aid on the Table
The administration may use tariff revenue to fund a new bailout for US farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested an announcement could come soon. Direct government payments are already expected to reach a five-year high near $41B. The new package could resemble Trump’s $23B farm aid program from 2019.

🛂 Immigration Overhaul
Trump unveiled a sweeping immigration plan, including a $100,000 annual fee for new H-1B visas (up from ~$5,250). Renewals are not affected. The move is meant to encourage hiring of US workers, but critics warn it could hurt smaller firms and AI competitiveness. A new “gold card” residency program will also cost $1M per individual or $2M per business sponsor. Trump claims the measures will generate “hundreds of billions” to reduce debt. This could be significant for farmers relying on H-1B labor.

🌽 Crop Outlook Shifts
S&P Global projects corn acres down 4.3% next year to 94.5M, while soybean acres rise 3.6% to 84M. Wheat acres are expected at 44.6M, down 1.8%. Despite S&P’s view, farm budgets and the corn/soybean ratio currently still favor corn. Ag View Solutions estimates 2026 costs: corn at $4.61/bu vs. a $4.60 Dec26 board price; soybeans at $11.66/bu vs. a $10.66 Nov26 price.

🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Appetite
China imported a record 10.5mmt of soybeans in August, 85% from Brazil. US soybean exports to China are up 31% YTD, but traders think China is mostly uncovered for Nov–Jan, the key US window. With China using ~11mmt/month, the question is whether they’ll rely on Brazil or risk drawing down stocks.

📊 Money Flow & Sales
CFTC data shows funds trimmed net shorts:
Corn: net short 81k (smallest since May)
Soybeans: net buyers of 14k
SRW wheat: net buyers of 7k

USDA confirmed a flash sale of 206,460mt corn to unknown buyers. 

🐂 Cattle on Feed
As of Sept 1:
11.1M head on feed (99% of year ago)
Placements: 1.8M (below expectations, -10% y/y)
Marketings: 1.6M (-14% y/y)
With the cow herd at a 70-year low and no Mexican imports, supplies remain tight—another bullish factor.

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0:00 Great Hair
1:03 Vessel Fees
3:28 Corn/Soy Action
7:27 Export Sales
10:38 CONAB
12:12 Corn Belt Drought and Yields

🌎 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!
Today we’re breaking down new US ship fees on Chinese vessels, grain market moves, export sales, and fresh drought data. Let’s dive in 👇

🚢 US Ship Fees & Grain Impact
The US will impose new fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships starting October 14.
Ships both built and operated by Chinese companies will face the highest costs.
Foreign-operated ships built in China will pay lower fees.
Bulk carriers like Panamax vessels (65,000–80,000 DWT)—which move most grain exports—are exempt, after pushback from farm groups earlier this year.
👉 Grain exports are unlikely to see major disruption.

📉 Grain Futures
Corn (Dec25) slipped to $4.24/bu.
Soybeans (Nov25) dropped to $10.38/bu.
Wheat followed lower.
Weakness tied to harvest progress, a stronger US dollar, and softer biofuel demand.

📦 Export Sales Update
Corn: 1.2 mmt (48 mbu), up 128% vs last week. Mexico led for 4th week in a row.
Soybeans: 923k mt (34 mbu), up 71%. Egypt the top buyer. Still no China purchases yet.
Wheat: 377k mt (14 mbu), near low end of expectations. Philippines the largest buyer.

🇧🇷 Brazil’s Record Crop Outlook
Soybeans: 177.7 mmt (+3.6%), acreage up 3.7%, exports up 5.1% to 112.1 mmt.
Corn: 138.3 mmt, exports up 16% to 46.5 mmt.

🌾 Drought Monitor
Corn Belt drought worsening: 37% affected, up 17% from last week.
Extreme drought in eastern Ohio & SE Missouri.
High Plains saw slight improvement in ND, SD, and KS.
USDA drought data shows:
Corn: 25%
Soybeans: 36%
Winter Wheat: 44%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 23%

🚨 Flash Sale to Mexico
US sold 110,000 mt (4 mbu) corn for 2025/26 delivery. Corn sales are now running 68% above last year’s pace.

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0:00 Farm Bailout - How Will it Look?
4:02 Fed Rate Cut
5:42 Bearish Wheat Headlines
8:23 Canada Production
9:34 Ethanol Production

🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering farm aid, the Fed’s rate cut, and big moves in global wheat and canola markets.

💵 Farm Aid Push
Republican lawmakers urge Trump administration to deliver new farmer payments
USDA weighing a package similar to the $23B MFP programs of 2018–19
ECAP already paying out $10B this year

🏦 Federal Reserve Moves
Fed cuts rates for the first time since December
New range: 4%–4.25%
Labor market weakness driving the shift
Expectations for two more cuts this year

🌍 Global Wheat & Canola
Russia exploring subsidies to boost sluggish wheat exports
India’s wheat stocks at 4-year highs
Canada: biggest wheat crop since 2013, biggest canola crop since 2018

⛽ Ethanol Update
US ethanol production dips 4.5% week over week
Stocks at 22.6M barrels, down nearly 5% from last year
Margins remain positive across the Corn Belt