Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌾 Welcome to today’s grain market update!
Soybean futures surged to their highest level since June as optimism grows that China may resume U.S. soybean purchases following President Trump’s comments on a potential trade deal with President Xi.

🌤️ Weather & Harvest Progress
Corn and soybean harvests are nearly wrapped up across the U.S. Analysts estimate the corn harvest at 72% complete and soybeans at 84%, both slightly behind last year’s record pace. Rain slowed progress in parts of the Corn Belt, but steady combining continues elsewhere. With the government still shut down, no official Crop Production or WASDE report is expected on November 10th.

🌎 Global Market Trends
Brazilian planting is racing ahead — 36% of soybeans and 55% of first-crop corn are in the ground, matching last year’s pace. Conab pegs Brazil’s soybean crop at 177.6mmt (+3.6% YoY) and corn output at 138.6mmt (-1.8% YoY). 

🚢 Export & Shipment Data
U.S. soybean inspections were disappointing at 1.1mmt — the weakest seasonal figure since 2011/12. Corn shipments were 1.2mmt, and wheat came in light at just 258kmt. Top soybean destinations included Indonesia, Israel, and Italy.

🐂 Livestock & Policy Watch
Cattle markets were hammered again Monday. Feeder cattle contracts hit expanded limits, and live cattle dropped sharply amid news of expanded Argentine beef imports and possible Mexican feeder cattle inflows. A Trump–Brazil meeting also hinted at renewed Brazilian beef trade.

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🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Talks

US and Chinese leaders made progress on a trade deal during meetings in Malaysia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump’s 100% tariff threat on Chinese goods is now off the table. He also hinted at an agreement that would extend the current tariff truce and defer China’s export controls on rare earth minerals. China is expected to make substantial purchases of US soybeans, though details on volumes and timing are still unclear. The talks set the stage for a meeting later this week between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, where a final deal could be announced.

🌾 Ag Markets: Soybeans, Corn & Wheat

Soybean futures gapped higher overnight. The Jan ’26 contract trades at its best level since late August, while the spot Nov ’25 contract is at its highest since July 2024. Corn and wheat futures are also trading higher, supported by optimism over renewed Chinese demand and improved export prospects.

🔍 Phase One Review

The US has launched an investigation into China’s compliance with the 2020 Phase One trade deal. That agreement required China to significantly boost imports of US farm goods, especially soybeans. China committed to an average of $40 billion per year over two years but reached only about 77% of the target. A public hearing is scheduled for December 16, and the probe could lead to new tariffs if violations are found.

🐄 Cattle & Beef Markets

Cattle futures closed sharply lower on Friday, with many contracts hitting their daily limit down. The selloff was triggered by reports that US and Mexican officials will meet to discuss reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports. Traders are also reacting to plans by the Trump administration to lower domestic beef prices by allowing more Argentine beef imports. The uncertainty has caused speculators to unwind large net long positions in the cattle market.

💸 Inflation & Markets

Inflation came in slightly cooler than expected in September. The CPI rose 0.3% for the month and 3.0% from a year ago. Gasoline prices were up 4.1% for the month and accounted for much of the gain. The softer inflation report boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting this week.

📈 Stock Market Rally

Stocks rallied to record highs on Friday. The Dow Jones topped 47,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logged strong weekly gains. The market optimism is driven by easing inflation and growing confidence that interest rate cuts are on the way.

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🌱 Soybeans & Corn
Soybean and corn futures advanced on Thursday. The Nov25 soybean contract rose 10¢ to about $10.45/bu, its highest level in more than a month. Support came from surging oil prices, optimism over a potential US–China trade deal, and strong crush margins.
The Dec25 corn contract gained 5¢ to $4.28/bu, boosted by strong export demand, firmer basis bids, and limited farmer selling. Rumors swirled of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and wheat—US beans remain 64¢ cheaper than Brazil’s on a global basis.

🌏 Trump–Xi Trade Talks
President Trump and President Xi will meet next Thursday in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. The talks follow Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods after Beijing’s new rare earth restrictions.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meeting with Chinese negotiators in Malaysia this weekend to prepare the groundwork.

🛢️ Oil & Sanctions
The US blacklisted two Russian oil firms, pressuring China to curb Russian crude imports—which make up roughly 20% of its supply. Companies that ignore sanctions risk losing access to global financial systems.
Oil prices jumped 5.6%, with WTI crude at $61.75/bbl.

🥩 Argentine Beef Imports
The US will quadruple beef imports from Argentina, raising the tariff quota to 80,000mt (176M lbs). Critics say it hurts US ranchers and won’t meaningfully lower prices—the increase equals just 0.8% of annual consumption.
🇺🇸 US beef consumption ≈ 28.6B lbs
🇦🇷 Annual beef imports ≈ 5B+ lbs

🐄 US–Mexico Border Talks
Talks resume next week to reopen the border for Mexican feeder cattle. The closure since May, due to a New World screwworm outbreak, has reduced US feedlot placements by ~500,000 head over three months.

🌤️ US Drought Update (USDA Monitor)
Drought conditions were mostly steady last week.
✅ Improvement: Southern IL, Western KY
❌ Worsening: NE Iowa, Eastern IL, Central OK

US Areas Experiencing Drought
🌽 Corn – 32%
🌱 Soybeans – 39%
🌾 Winter Wheat – 43%
🌾 Spring Wheat – 16%
🐄 Cattle – 27%

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Today’s Focus: Trump vs. Ranchers, China’s Crop Damage, and U.S.–China Trade Tensions 🇺🇸🌾

🐄 Trump Attacks U.S. Ranchers
President Trump took aim at U.S. cattle ranchers Wednesday, criticizing their pushback against his plan to lower domestic beef prices. He claimed ranchers owe their success to his tariff policies and suggested they’d be struggling without him. The remarks followed his recent move to boost Argentine beef imports — a decision that sent cattle futures plunging. Live cattle dropped more than $7/cwt, while feeder cattle hit their daily limit, down $9.25/cwt. See Trump’s Truth Social posts below.

🌧️ China’s Corn Crop in Trouble
Heavy rain is hammering northern China’s corn belt — the wettest stretch in 60 years — leaving millions of acres unharvested and some crops rotting. Imports are down 93% from last year as China leans on domestic supply, but the losses could tighten stocks. USDA pegs China’s corn reserves at 193 mmt, roughly 45% of this year’s U.S. crop. Corn harvest is likely about 75% complete. Six key provinces, accounting for nearly 40% of production, have faced excessive rain in recent weeks. 

🤝 U.S.–China Trade Talks
U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Malaysia this weekend ahead of a potential Trump–Xi summit in South Korea. The U.S. has threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports beginning November 1 if no agreement is reached. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng is leading the delegation in ongoing talks through Sunday. Soybean purchases and rare earth mineral restrictions remain key flashpoints.

💻 New Export Controls?
The Trump administration is weighing fresh export restrictions on critical U.S. software to China, mirroring measures once aimed at Russia. The plan may involve coordination with G-7 allies but remains preliminary. It follows China’s new port fees on U.S. vessels and limits on rare earth exports.

⛽ Ethanol Output Near Record
U.S. ethanol production jumped to 1.11 million barrels per day last week — the second-highest on record. Stocks dropped to a 51-week low near 21.9 million barrels. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solid, ranging from +20¢ to +50¢ per gallon.

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✅ Welcome to today’s update! We’re covering farm aid, trade talks, beef expansion plans, global wheat crops, and precious metals volatility.

🌾 USDA Resumes Farm Aid
The Trump administration will restart $3 billion in payments through the Farm Service Agency. All FSA offices reopen Thursday, with ARC/PLC and loan programs resuming after the shutdown pause. Brooke Rollins says additional support for farmers impacted by the US–China trade war will follow soon. 

🤝 Trump–Xi Meeting & Soybeans
Trump remains optimistic about a meeting with Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea, though the timing isn’t guaranteed. He said, “Maybe it won’t happen… it’s just business.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese officials this weekend to prepare. No new US soybean sales to China have been reported as tensions persist.

🥩 Beef Expansion Plan
USDA plans to open more land for cattle production and build new processing plants. Rollins says the move will grow the cowherd and reduce beef prices. The plan follows backlash over increased Argentine beef imports.

🌾 Russia’s Wheat Outlook
IKAR raised Russia’s wheat crop forecast slightly to 88 mmt. Exports remain sluggish—down 18% from last year—keeping global wheat prices under pressure. 

🥇 Gold & Silver Slide
Gold plunged 6.3% to $4,105 and silver 8.3%, marking their steepest drops in years. Analysts see $4,000 as key gold support, with Goldman targeting $4,900 by 2026. 

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🇺🇸🌎 U.S.–Colombia Tensions Escalate
President Trump announced new aid cuts and potential tariffs against Colombia, accusing President Gustavo Petro of failing to curb drug production. Colombia — a longtime U.S. ally — received $230 million in aid last year, down from more than $700 million in earlier years. The country pulled its ambassador from D.C. but has not announced any economic retaliation. Since Colombia accounted for 11% of U.S. corn exports (≈2% of total demand), these tensions could carry real ag-trade implications. 🌽 

🇨🇳🚫 China Stops Buying U.S. Soybeans
For the first time since 2018, China imported zero U.S. soybeans in September. A year ago, the figure was 1.7 mmt. Meanwhile, Brazil’s shipments to China jumped 30%, and Argentina’s surged 92%. Total Chinese soybean imports hit 12.9 mmt — the second-highest monthly total on record. Without a trade deal, China may face a supply gap early next year before Brazil’s new-crop harvest. 🌱

📦 Weekly Export Inspections
USDA reported:
• Soybeans – 1.5 mmt (+45% vs week prior)
• Corn – 1.3 mmt (+9%)
• Wheat – 480,614 mt (+7%)
Top soybean destinations: Mexico, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Germany.

🇧🇷🌦️ Brazil Planting Progress
AgRural says 24% of Brazil’s soybean crop is planted (up from 14% last week and 18% last year). First-crop corn planting is 51% complete. Conab projects soybean output at 177.6 mmt (+3.6% YoY) and corn at 138.6 mmt (-1.8% YoY). 

🥩 Argentina Beef Imports?
Trump says he’s considering increased Argentine beef imports to ease U.S. prices and support Argentina’s economy. But Argentina supplies only 2% of U.S. beef imports — even if the U.S. bought its entire export capacity (770,000 mt), price effects would be minimal. Foot-and-mouth disease risks make this a controversial proposal. 🐄

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🚜 ADM Deferred Pricing Offer
ADM is now offering deferred pricing at its Decatur, IL facility — a move aimed at jumpstarting soybean deliveries. Farmers can deliver soybeans now, transfer ownership, and set a final price anytime before September 2026.
🟡 No storage fees
🟡 Immediate ADM ownership
🟡 Unusual timing — normally seen after the new year
Slow farmer sales due to weak prices are tightening processor supplies, prompting ADM’s rare “free DP” incentive.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Malaysia this week. The session sets the stage for a Trump–Xi meeting later this month.
👉 Trump hinted he’s open to lowering tariffs if China resumes soybean purchases “like before.”
👉 The trade truce expires in November, keeping markets on edge.

🌽🫘 Futures Update
Corn and soybeans both ended the week higher:
🌽 Dec ’25 Corn – around $4.23, supported by slow sales and lower yields
🫘 Nov ’25 Soybeans – near $10.20, boosted by domestic demand and trade optimism
Overnight gains continued after Trump’s weekend remarks.

🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Progress
Brazilian soybean planting is racing ahead — 23% complete vs. 9% last year.
🌧️ Well-distributed rain + warm temps are ideal.
📊 Conab projects 177.7 MMT, while USDA is at 175 MMT.

🐄 Cattle Market Moves
Cattle futures tumbled Friday after Trump hinted at potential steps to lower beef prices.
💬 Analyst Brad Kooima says inflation-adjusted prices remain stable, but political pressure could spark a Brazil beef import deal, worrying U.S. producers.

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🌽 Corn Market Turns Higher
Corn and soybean futures advanced Thursday, supported by smaller-than-expected yields and harvest delays from upcoming rains. Dec ’25 corn added 5¢ to $4.22 while Nov ’25 soybeans climbed 4¢ to $10.11. Strong domestic crush demand and tighter spreads helped fuel optimism. Corn calendar spreads have rallied sharply—slow farmer selling and steady ethanol demand likely helped. 📈

🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Dilemma
High Brazilian premiums ($2.80–$2.90 over futures) may force China to tap its state reserves as crush margins remain negative. With 43.5 mmt of soybeans in storage—the largest on record—China has room to draw down stocks as it battles through the trade war.

🐄 Cattle Prices Hit New Highs
Live cattle surged to record levels, driven by tight supplies and border closures to Mexican cattle imports. Fat cattle traded $240/cwt in parts of the Midwest. The Trump administration says it’s working to lower beef prices, possibly through new import deals.

⛽ Ethanol Stays Strong
US ethanol production rose to 1.07 million bpd last week while stocks fell slightly. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solid—between 20–50¢ positive, according to Reuters.

🏈 CME Launches “Prediction Futures”
CME Group plans to roll out new contracts linked to sports and economic outcomes, partnering with FanDuel. These products could shake up prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.

🌦️ Drought Update
USDA data shows 38% of the Corn Belt still under drought, though that’s improved from last year’s 53%. The worst areas remain in parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and South Dakota.

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🌾 Farm Bailout on Hold
A “clever and generous” farm aid package is ready to launch once the government shutdown ends. Kevin Hassett says it was supposed to drop by Oct. 7 but got delayed. Reports point to at least $10 billion — likely funded by tariff revenue — to offset weak exports and global oversupply. Polymarket bettors see a 33% chance the shutdown lasts past Nov. 16.

💸 U.S. Support for Argentina
The Treasury plans another $20 billion to stabilize Argentina’s economy — on top of last week’s swap line. Scott Bessent says funding is policy-linked, not political. Some reports hint the U.S. has already bought Argentine pesos, implying exposure to currency risk.

🌱 NOPA September Crush
The September soybean crush hit 197.86 million bushels — the fourth-highest on record and 11.6% above last year. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.24 billion pounds, the lowest since Dec 2024 and below trade expectations. 

🇨🇳 Trade War Confusion
Trump confirmed the U.S. is “in a trade war with China,” even as Bessent floated extending the current truce if China halts rare-earth export controls. Talks with South Korea, Canada & India continue, and Trump is still set to meet Xi in South Korea later this month.

🚢 Mississippi River Crisis
Low water levels for the fourth straight year are tightening grain transport south of St. Louis. Rates are rising and efficiency is dropping just as soybean exports face trade-war headwinds. 

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🇺🇸 Trump Eyes Cooking Oil Embargo Against China
President Trump is considering a cooking oil embargo targeting China 🇨🇳. The move follows Beijing’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans—which Trump called an “economically hostile act.”

🛢️ Biofuels & UCO Trade Shift
Chinese used cooking oil (UCO) exports hit record highs in 2024, with the U.S. buying 1.3 MMT—43% of total exports. But those imports have likely plunged this year since biofuel tax incentives for imported UCO were eliminated. Trump says the U.S. can produce its own cooking oil supply.

🌱 Soybean Market Update
Soybean futures ticked slightly lower Tuesday despite strong export inspections — 994,000 MT last week, the best since February. Top buyers: Mexico, Spain & Bangladesh.
Corn and wheat shipments were mixed as traders remain cautious with the USDA data delay during the government shutdown.

🚢 Port Fees & Trade Tensions
Trump’s new U.S. port fees are adding pressure to Chinese shipping companies like COSCO & OOCL. China has retaliated with special vessel fees on certain U.S. ships.
👉 Note: Most grain shipments are exempt thanks to strong farm-group pushback.

🌎 Brazil Crop Outlook
🇧🇷 Conab projects record soybean output at 177.6 MMT, up 3.5% YoY, with exports near 112 MMT. Corn output seen at 138.6 MMT, with exports of 46.5 MMT (+16%).

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