Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🇺🇸 Trump Eyes Cooking Oil Embargo Against China
President Trump is considering a cooking oil embargo targeting China 🇨🇳. The move follows Beijing’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans—which Trump called an “economically hostile act.”

🛢️ Biofuels & UCO Trade Shift
Chinese used cooking oil (UCO) exports hit record highs in 2024, with the U.S. buying 1.3 MMT—43% of total exports. But those imports have likely plunged this year since biofuel tax incentives for imported UCO were eliminated. Trump says the U.S. can produce its own cooking oil supply.

🌱 Soybean Market Update
Soybean futures ticked slightly lower Tuesday despite strong export inspections — 994,000 MT last week, the best since February. Top buyers: Mexico, Spain & Bangladesh.
Corn and wheat shipments were mixed as traders remain cautious with the USDA data delay during the government shutdown.

🚢 Port Fees & Trade Tensions
Trump’s new U.S. port fees are adding pressure to Chinese shipping companies like COSCO & OOCL. China has retaliated with special vessel fees on certain U.S. ships.
👉 Note: Most grain shipments are exempt thanks to strong farm-group pushback.

🌎 Brazil Crop Outlook
🇧🇷 Conab projects record soybean output at 177.6 MMT, up 3.5% YoY, with exports near 112 MMT. Corn output seen at 138.6 MMT, with exports of 46.5 MMT (+16%).

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🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 US-China Meeting Still On
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still expected to meet in South Korea at the end of the month to discuss trade. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the plans on Monday, easing fears the meeting might be canceled after a tense weekend. The news helped stocks rebound after Friday’s sell-off. Bessent said the two sides held extensive talks over the weekend and will continue discussions this week in Washington during the World Bank and IMF meetings. China’s commerce ministry reiterated it remains open to dialogue but warned the US against making threats while seeking talks.

🌽🌱 US Harvest Progress Slows
The US corn and soybean harvests are trailing last year’s pace. A Reuters poll showed corn harvest at 44% complete and soybeans at 58%, both slightly behind 2023 levels. Analysts attribute the lag to slower crop dry-down. Normally, USDA reports would confirm progress, but updates are paused due to the ongoing government shutdown.

💵📈 Dollar Rebounds Amid Trade Hopes
The US dollar climbed Monday on optimism about a potential trade deal with China, brushing off Trump’s latest tariff threats. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, while the yen and euro weakened. Despite Friday’s market tumble, comments from Trump and Vice President JD Vance suggested openness to more talks, helping restore confidence in US markets.

🚜📊 Tractor Sales Finally Rise
US tractor sales increased 4.1% in September—the first gain in over a year. The modest rebound offers hope for the struggling farm machinery sector, though combine sales plunged 22%. Manufacturers like John Deere expect 2025 to mark the low point for sales, with recovery likely next year.

🌎🌾 China’s Soybean Imports Hit Record Levels
China imported 12.9mmt of soybeans in September, the second-highest monthly total ever and the fifth straight record. Year-to-date imports are up 5.3% from last year, driven by strong demand and higher purchases from Argentina and Brazil. China hasn’t yet bought US soybeans this season, and renewed trade tensions are casting doubt on a Trump-Xi meeting to discuss the issue.

🇧🇷🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Planting Accelerates
Soybean planting in Brazil is moving quickly—14% complete as of last week, the third-fastest pace on record. AgRural reports rapid progress despite uneven weather, with Conab projecting a 177.7mmt crop. Brazil’s first corn crop is 45% planted, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.

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🚨 U.S.–China Trade Tensions Flare Again
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated sharply. On Friday, President Trump announced plans to impose new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, raising total tariffs on many goods to 130%. The move follows China’s announcement of its own export controls, set to begin the same day. The back-and-forth has cast doubt on a potential Trump–Xi meeting later this month. Trump’s follow-up post on Sunday struck a softer tone, helping markets recover part of Friday’s losses. See both Truth Social posts below.

🌾 Soybeans & Ag Markets
Soybean futures tumbled on Friday as trade tensions intensified. November ’25 soybeans fell 16¢ to around $10.07/bu after China announced new export restrictions and retaliatory port fees. The measures would target rare earth minerals and U.S.-linked vessels. Trump responded that there was “no reason” to meet with Xi and reaffirmed tariff threats. Hopes for a renewed Chinese purchase program have faded, though the U.S. is now exploring alternative export markets and domestic soybean uses.

📉 Stocks & Crude Oil Reaction
The S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, Dow −1.9%, and Nasdaq −3.6% Friday—Wall Street’s worst day since April. The sell-off followed Trump’s tariff announcement and China’s rare-earth retaliation. Oil prices also slid, with WTI crude dipping below $59/bbl, the lowest since May. Despite the sharp move, equities remain near record highs after a months-long rally. Early Monday, futures rebounded following Trump’s more conciliatory weekend tone.

💥 Crypto Market Meltdown
The tariff shock triggered the largest crypto liquidation in history—nearly 1.6 million traders liquidated, totaling $19 billion+, with some estimates as high as $400 billion in wiped-out value. Bitcoin plunged 12%, from over $125k to under $113k. Analysts now eye $100k as key support. Excessive leverage across crypto markets amplified the crash—“altcoins” were hit hardest. See Charlie Munger’s quote below on the dangers of leverage.

🌦️ U.S. Weather & Harvest Progress
Weekend rainfall was light across much of the Corn Belt, with heavier totals in central/northern Missouri. Limited rains also reached the Dakotas and Minnesota. Based on prior USDA data (as of Sept 29: corn 18% harvested, soybeans 19%), harvest is likely near 50% complete. With the government shutdown, no new Crop Progress report will be released today.

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🇨🇳 Trump Eyes Soybean Revival
President Trump says he’s confident China will resume buying U.S. soybeans 🌱. He plans to pressure Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month to restart imports. A new farm aid package was expected this week to offset trade war losses, but the government shutdown ⛔ has delayed it. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says once the government reopens, a “significant” support program will roll out. Trump warned that if talks fail, the U.S. could restrict exports to China—or block Chinese imports entirely. ⚖️

📉 Markets in the Dark
The shutdown has blinded grain markets. With the USDA halting major reports—including export sales, crop progress, and WASDE—market transparency has vanished. Analysts say the lack of data is fueling uncertainty during harvest. 🌾 Big players like Cargill and ADM still have their own numbers, but smaller traders are left guessing. Many expect market corrections once the reports resume.

🔥 Heat and Drought Deepen
USDA’s latest drought monitor shows hot, dry weather worsening conditions across the Corn Belt. 🌡️ Drought expanded in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, and Missouri, while only parts of Iowa saw slight improvement. The High Plains also stayed dry, with more drought creeping into South Dakota, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.

Areas in Drought:
🌽 Corn – 31%
🫘 Soybeans – 39%
🌾 Winter Wheat – 45%
🌱 Spring Wheat – 16%
🐄 Cattle – 25%

💵 U.S. Backs Argentina’s Economy
The U.S. has launched a $20 billion financial rescue plan for Argentina, including a currency swap and direct peso purchases 🇦🇷. Some call the move risky, citing Argentina’s default history. U.S. farmers aren’t thrilled either—Argentina’s boosted soybean sales to China have cut into American export opportunities. 😒

🌻 Russia Cuts Wheat Plantings
Russian farmers plan to reduce wheat acreage by 6%, shifting to oilseeds instead. Poor profits, high export duties, and drought are driving the change. Russia expects to harvest about 88 million metric tons, but global oversupply keeps wheat prices near five-year lows. 📉

🤝 U.S.–India Talks Gain Ground
Trade talks between the U.S. and India are showing progress 🇮🇳. Modi and Trump discussed recent breakthroughs, and another round is coming soon. The U.S. wants India to stop buying Russian oil, while India offered to import U.S. corn for ethanol as a concession. India produces 2.5B gallons of ethanol yearly—far below the U.S.’s 17B gallons. 🌽⚗️

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🇨🇳 China Fuels Brazil’s Soybean Boom
China’s surging demand is driving Brazilian soybean exports to record highs. 🌱 Brazil is on pace to ship 102.2 MMT by the end of October, surpassing last year’s record. Nearly 80% of those exports are headed to China, as the country turns away from U.S. soybeans amid the ongoing trade war. With a bumper harvest, exports could reach 110 MMT for the full year.

🌾 U.S. Farmers Face a Soybean Storage Squeeze
A rapid harvest and weak Chinese demand have U.S. farmers running out of space. 🚜 Many face tough choices — piling soybeans on the ground under tarps or selling at steep discounts. In North Dakota, this year’s crop is expected to exceed storage by 33%, with surpluses of 26% in South Dakota and 15% in Nebraska.

🛢️ Oil Slips as Tensions Ease and Supplies Build
Oil prices fell Wednesday as easing Middle East tensions and rising U.S. inventories weighed on the market. Brent dipped below $66, and WTI slid to $61.50 per barrel. President Trump announced a Gaza hostage-release deal, while U.S. crude stockpiles rose for a second week. Analysts expect a market surplus soon, with Goldman Sachs projecting Brent to average $56 next year.

🍶 U.S. Ethanol Output Hits Seasonal High
Ethanol production jumped 7.6% week-over-week to 1.07 million barrels per day, the highest this season. Stocks fell slightly to 22.7 million barrels, while margins across the Corn Belt remain positive—ranging from 20¢ to 45¢ per gallon. 💪

💸 Fed Split on Path for Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve minutes revealed most policymakers expect more rate cuts this year, but opinions remain divided. 📉 Inflation is still sticky even as the labor market cools. The median forecast calls for two more quarter-point cuts by year-end, though some members see fewer. Markets are betting on cuts in October and December.

🥇 Precious Metals Hit Record Highs
Gold and silver soared Wednesday on safe-haven demand. 💰 Gold broke above $4,000/oz, and silver hit $49.57/oz—both all-time highs. The rallies were fueled by geopolitical risks, rate-cut expectations, and the U.S. government shutdown. Goldman Sachs now sees gold climbing to $4,900 by the end of 2026, with prices up 50% this year.

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🇺🇸 US Farmer Sentiment
US farmer sentiment was mostly steady in September. Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index ticked up slightly to 126, just one point above August. About 71% of farmers believe the US is headed in the right direction.

Confidence in tariffs, however, has declined. Only 51% of respondents expect tariffs to benefit agriculture long-term, down from 63% in June and 70% earlier this year. Many farmers are counting on government support to help offset trade pressures, with 83% expecting a program similar to the 2019 MFP if the trade war continues. 🌽💵

📊 USDA Reports Delayed
The USDA won’t release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report due to the ongoing government shutdown. Reuters shared analysts’ expectations: US corn yield and production are expected to drop ~1%, while soybeans show little change. Corn carryout is projected to reach a seven-year high, supported by historically large September 1 stocks. Global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are also expected to rise. 🌍🌾

🚢 Mississippi River Challenges
Low water levels on the Mississippi River are causing grain transport issues. Although recent stabilization has allowed barge traffic, levels may drop again as harvest picks up. Higher barge rates are driving up shipping costs, which ultimately affect farmers. Combined with weak commodity prices, this has created record storage deficits across the Corn Belt—the worst since 2016—in Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota. 🛶📈

🇦🇷 Argentina Oilseed Strike
Argentine oilseed workers began an indefinite strike over wage disputes, supported by multiple industry groups. The labor ministry has called a 15-day conciliation period, halting strike actions temporarily. This comes shortly after a brief pause on export taxes for many agricultural products. ⚖️✊

🏛️ US Government Shutdown
The US government shutdown entered its eighth day with no end in sight. President Trump warned that furloughed workers might not receive back pay, seen as pressure on lawmakers. The Senate will vote on competing funding bills after both failed to reach 60 votes on Monday. The administration also cautioned that prolonged shutdowns could lead to permanent layoffs rather than temporary furloughs. ⏳📉

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💰 US Farm Aid Update
The Trump administration is set to announce a $10–15 billion farm aid package this week to help farmers hit by the trade war. 🌽🇺🇸 The ongoing government shutdown could make approval tricky, and existing funds may not be enough to cover the full payout. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the package would be unveiled soon. During Trump’s first term, over $23 billion was provided to offset trade losses, and even without the new aid, U.S. farmers are already set to receive more than $40 billion this year. 📈

📊 US Crop Progress
The USDA’s weekly crop report wasn’t released on Monday due to the government shutdown. Analysts estimate the corn harvest is about 30% complete, up from 18% last week, while the soybean harvest is around 35%, compared with 19% a week earlier. Dry conditions last week helped farmers wrap up soybeans and move on to corn. This week’s forecast calls for mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt, except in Ohio and Kentucky, where significant rainfall is expected. Temperatures are projected to stay above average. 🌽🌱

🚢 US Exports
US corn shipments reached 1.6 MMT (63M bushels) for the week ending October 2, hitting a marketing-year high and up 69% from last year. Soybean exports totaled 768,117 MT (28M bushels), up 26% from last week but down 53% from the same week last year, highlighting the absence of Chinese purchases. Wheat shipments came in at 505,096 MT (19M bushels), down 43% from the prior week but 38% above last year. 📦

🌱 Brazilian Planting
Soybean planting in Brazil is moving quickly. AgRural reports 9% of the crop planted as of last Thursday, up from 3% the previous week and 4% last year—the second-fastest pace on record for this date. Brazil’s first corn crop is 40% planted, compared with 37% last year, marking the fastest start since 2012/2013. 🇧🇷🌾

🤝 US-Brazil trade tensions may be easing
After a 30-minute call on Monday, President Trump and Brazilian President Lula da Silva agreed to meet soon. Discussions focused on economic relations, with Lula requesting the removal of US tariffs on Brazilian goods and sanctions on top officials. US tariffs, including a 50% levy, have hit key exports like coffee (down 70% to the US) and beef. ☕🥩

🐄 New World Screwworm Alert
A new case of New World screwworm was confirmed about 170 miles south of the US-Mexico border in Nuevo León, marking the state’s second detection in two weeks. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the case is isolated and unrelated to the previous one. The news has supported cattle futures, as the border is expected to remain closed, keeping feeder cattle supplies tight.

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0:00 Farm Bankruptcies
2:14 Bessent, Trade Talks, Farm Bailout
5:16 "Debasement Trade"
8:39 Brazil Update
9:47 Shutdown, Rollins Interview

🌾 Farm Bankruptcies Rising
Farm bankruptcies have increased this year—93 filings in Q2, up from 88 in Q1 and 47 in Q4 2024. Although still low by historical standards, the trend has been upward since 2022. Corn prices have fallen roughly 50% and soybeans 40% since then, reflecting the broader ag downturn. High input costs, weak markets, and limited exports have all played a role.
While USDA projects higher farm income this year, about three-quarters of the growth is expected to come from government payments.
The first chart below (from Fortune Magazine) shows current bankruptcy trends, and the second chart extends back to 1986. Prior data isn’t available because Chapter 12 didn’t exist until 1986—a response to the 1980s farm crisis, when 200,000–300,000farms went under.

🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the next round of U.S.–China negotiations—set for later this month in South Korea—could produce a breakthrough. President Trump and President Xi are expected to discuss soybean trade and ag exports.
China has shifted more soybean purchases to South America amid the trade war, but Trump is expected to announce a new aid package for farmers this week to offset the impact.

💰 Bitcoin Breaks New Record
Bitcoin hit a record high of $125,689 on Sunday, surpassing its August peak. Equities strength and ETF inflows helped fuel the rally, while the government shutdown sparked safe-haven buying in what investors call a “debasement trade.”
Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin—up in 9 of the past 10 years—and it’s now +31% YTD.

🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting
Brazilian soybean planting is off to a fast start—9.2% complete vs. 2.3% a year ago, per Patria Agronegocios. Consistent rainfall has helped, and farmers are expected to plant around 120 million acres this season.
While Brazil has been slightly drier than normal lately, above-normal rainfall is forecast for the next two weeks—critical for strong emergence.

🏛 Government Shutdown Update
The shutdown continues after the Senate failed to pass either party’s funding bill on Friday. Roughly half of USDA employees are furloughed, disrupting data collection and delaying key reports, including Export Sales and CFTC’s Commitment of Traders.
The October 9 Crop Production and WASDE reports will likely be postponed. US Ag Secretary Rollins will not be available for our scheduled interview until the shutdown ends.

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0:00 Brian's 'Stache
0:40 Another Farm Bailout
7:35 Argentina Update
9:36 Corteva Split
11:34 Soybean/Corn Rally
15:54 Yield Estimates
17:17 Drought Update

💰 Trump’s New Farmer Aid Plan
President Trump is weighing a $10–$14 billion bailout for US farmers, likely funded by tariff revenues. Payments could start in the coming months, with soybean producers as the main beneficiaries since they’re expected to lose about $100 per acre this year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says details may be announced as soon as Tuesday. For comparison, the 2018–2020 MFP program totaled $23 billion, with soybeans seeing the largest support ($1.65–$2.05/bu). Rough math suggests something around $10 billion could be realistic this time.

🌍 US–China Soybean Trade & Argentina Tensions
Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping later this month to push for more Chinese soybean purchases. Any deal could affect the size of the aid program. Meanwhile, the US confirmed support for Argentina via a $20 billion swap line, not direct investment. Farmers are frustrated, as Argentina has recently undercut the US with large soybean sales to China.

🌱 Corteva Breakup News
Corteva will split into two separate companies:
Seed unit → expanding beyond corn and soybeans into cotton and wheat.
Pesticide unit → focusing on cost-cutting as Chinese generics gain ground.
The move is planned for the second half of next year, but shares are already down 15% since September.

📈 Soybean Futures Rally
Soybean futures gained for the second straight day, with the Nov25 contract up nearly 11 cents Thursday, adding to Wednesday’s rally. Optimism is tied directly to Trump’s announcement about the Xi meeting.

🌽 Crop Outlook Cuts
S&P Global cut its forecasts:
Corn yield → 185.5 bpa (down from 189.1)
Corn production → 16.71 bil bu (vs. 16.77)
Soybean yield → 53 bpa (vs. 53.8)
Soybean production → 4.26 bil bu (vs. 4.31)

🔥 USDA Drought Monitor Update
Improved moisture helped Ohio, Kentucky, and parts of Indiana, but conditions worsened in Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa.
Current US drought coverage:
Corn → 28%
Soybeans → 37%
Winter Wheat → 45%
Spring Wheat → 13%
Cattle → 24%

👉 Stay tuned—the coming days could bring big announcements on farm aid and trade. Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments so we can talk through it together.

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🇨🇳 Trump vs. Xi on Soybeans
President Trump announced he’ll confront China’s Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC summit over Beijing’s refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans. The news sent soybean futures sharply higher—the biggest move since late August—before paring gains. Trump also floated a plan to use tariff revenues to fund fresh farmer aid, though the legality remains in question. Meanwhile, the U.S.–China tariff truce expires in November, and China has yet to book any new-crop U.S. soybeans.

📉 USDA Report Suspended
The October 9th WASDE and Crop Production reports are unlikely amid the government shutdown. USDA’s site confirms the reports are suspended until further notice, leaving traders without official supply, demand, and yield estimates during a critical time.

💵 Dollar Drops Again
The U.S. dollar weakened for the 4th straight session, its longest losing streak in a month, following soft payroll data and the shutdown. Perhaps most important to ag markets: the U.S. dollar has lost nearly 14% vs. the Brazilian real this year—keeping soybeans supported above $10.

🌽 StoneX Crop Update
U.S. corn yield cut to 185.9 bpa, but production still raised to 16.74B bu due to higher acreage.
Soybean yield boosted to 53.9 bpa, production raised to 4.33B bu.
Brazil’s soybean crop pegged at 178.6 mmt, up 5% from last year with record acreage.

🍺 Ethanol Output Slips
U.S. ethanol production fell for the third straight week to 1.0M bpd. Stocks also declined, though margins remain strong across the Corn Belt at 20–60 cents positive.

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