Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🇨🇳🚢 China to Resume Shipments of US Soybeans & Sorghum
Two Chinese vessels are scheduled to arrive at grain terminals near New Orleans this week to load US soybeans—the first such shipments since May. Another vessel is expected in Corpus Christi next week to load sorghum, marking the first sorghum shipment to China since March.
These movements follow increased Chinese purchasing after the late-October trade truce in South Korea. According to the Trump administration, China has agreed to buy 12mmt of US soybeans by January and 25mmt annually over the next three years. China has not yet officially confirmed the deal.

🌱📈 Fresh US Soybean Sales to China
China resumed buying on Monday. USDA reported:
• 123,000mt (5 million bushels) sold for 2025/26
• 1.92mmt (71 million bushels) purchased so far in November
With 25 business days left in 2025, China must average 402,440mt/day to hit the targeted 12mmt.

🚢🌎 US Export Inspections (Week Ending Nov 20)
Soybeans:
• 799,042mt (29mb)
• Down 34% vs. last week, down 62% vs. last year—still disappointing
Corn:
• 1.6mmt (64mb)
• Down 21% from last week but up 62% vs. last year
Wheat:
• 474,530mt (17mb)
• Up 92% vs. last week and up 30% vs. last year

📞🇺🇸 Trump–Xi Phone Call
President Trump says the call covered Chinese purchases of US soybeans and other ag goods. He described the trade truce as a “great deal” for US farmers. China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said all elements of the agreement are being implemented.
The two leaders agreed to meet in person—first in April in Beijing, then later in the US.

💵🚜 More Farmer Aid Expected
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says details of the long-discussed farmer assistance package will be released within the next two weeks. The Farm Bureau welcomed the update, calling aid “urgently needed.”
Rollins also indicated that China will formally confirm its soybean purchase commitments within the next few weeks.

🌧️🌽 China Corn Market: Prices Hit 2-Month High
Chinese corn futures have rallied due to:
• Excessive rains damaging crops in major northern regions
• Slow farmer selling
• Government import restrictions keeping foreign corn out
Through October, China’s corn imports totaled less than 1mmt, down 93% from last year.

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🌽 Record Wisconsin Corn Crop + Storage Crunch

Wisconsin is harvesting a record corn crop, with many farmers reporting yields 20–30 bushels above previous highs.
Grain elevators across the state are full or overflowing, forcing coops to pile millions of bushels outside on the ground.
United Cooperative near Appleton is moving grain out by rail as fast as possible.
Some farmers are turning to grain bagging because space is so tight.
Slow soybean sales are tying up even more storage as producers wait for better prices.
USDA pegs Wisconsin’s 2025 state yield at a record 183 bpa.
Other states — Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota — also posted record yields.
Western Corn Belt basis is weak, while basis in many eastern areas is stronger than normal.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Update
Consulting group Patria Agronegocios estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 80% complete vs 83% last year.
Still ahead of the 75% five-year average.
Irregular rainfall has caused localized delays and could affect yields.
Mato Grosso is nearly done — about 98% planted.

🐂 Cattle on Feed Report — Bullish Across the Board
As of Nov 1: 11.7M head, down 2% YoY — in line with expectations.
Placements: 2.04M head → down 10% and the lowest since 1996 for October.
Marketings: 1.7M head → down 8%, matching expectations.
Market should view this as bullish, though volatility could mute reaction.
Heifer retention still shows no major herd rebuilding.

🏭 Tyson Closing Major Nebraska Beef Plant
Tyson will close one of its largest beef plants in Lexington, NE — processing 5,000 head/day.
Roughly 3,000 jobs impacted.
Amarillo, TX plant will shrink from two shifts to one, affecting ~1,700 workers.
Changes take effect by end of January.
Tyson reported $2B higher cattle costs in FY2025 vs prior year.

💵 Macroeconomy: Shutdown Cost + Bessent Outlook
The government shutdown cost the US economy $11B.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic about 2026 growth.
Says easing interest rates and tax cuts will help, and doesn’t see the broader economy at risk.
Shutdown expected to cut Q4 growth in half → now 1.5%–2% expected.

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🌦️ Weather & Drought Update
Most of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI.
• Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme
• High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OK
US Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33%

💰 Farm Financial Stress
Three straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch.
• Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year
• U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12
• Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%)
Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis.

🚢 China Purchases & Export Sales
Flash Sales Thursday:
• 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY)
• 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY)
• China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MY

Brazil & Argentina Shipments:
• Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY)
• Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY)
• U.S. → 0mt
China imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment.

📦 Export Sales Snapshot
Corn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyer
Soybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyer
Wheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer

🐂 Cattle Markets
Cattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate.
• Trump is pushing lower beef prices
• Today’s Cattle on Feed expected to be bullish
• Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef—likely increases imports & pressures prices further

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🇺🇸 Farm Aid Update
The Trump administration is expected to announce additional farmer assistance in early December. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the aid is likely coming during the first week of the month. Details remain limited. The package was originally planned for this fall but delayed by the government shutdown.
Farmers continue to face pressure from inflation, policy uncertainty, and trade-related disruptions. Even with the uptick in Chinese soybean buying, the administration believes more support is necessary heading into next planting season.

🇨🇳 China Soybean Purchases
USDA reported another flash sale to China on Wednesday:
• 330,000mt (≈12 million bushels) sold
• China has now purchased 1.4mmt (≈50 million bushels) in recent weeks

There are 29 business days left before Jan 1. To hit the 12mmt target the White House outlined, China would need to average 367,103mt (13.5 million bu) per day.
Rumors point to 4–5 additional cargoes sold yesterday that may show up in today’s reporting.

🌱 2026 Acreage Outlook (S&P Global)
S&P Global’s monthly survey points to:
• Corn acres down to 95 million (–3.8%)
• Soybean acres up to 84.5 million (+4%)
• All wheat acres down to 44 million (–2.9%)

🛢️ Biofuel Credit Cuts May Be Delayed
The administration is weighing a 1–2 year delay in cutting biofuel import credits.
• Cuts were scheduled for Jan 1
• Would have reduced RIN credits earned by imported biofuels/inputs
• Refiners warn cuts could tighten fuel supplies and raise prices
EPA is reviewing comments and will finalize rules in the coming months.
Soybean oil futures dropped more than 2% on the headline.

🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins
US ethanol output increased to 1.09M barrels/day last week (+1.5% WoW).
Stocks climbed to 22.31M barrels, slightly higher on the week and year.
Margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from +5 to +35 cents depending on plant and input mix.

📉 CFTC Commitment of Traders
CFTC released its first COT data since reopening:
• Corn: Funds sold 32k → net short now 129k
• Soybeans: Funds sold 7k → net short now 32k
• SRW Wheat: Funds bought 1k → net short trimmed to 96k

CFTC expects to be fully current again by late January.

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🤝 Trade Deals & Farmer Aid Outlook
Recent trade agreements may impact the likelihood of additional farmer assistance. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says market conditions have shifted since aid discussions began earlier this fall. New trade deals with China, Pakistan, and Japan have led to significant purchase commitments for U.S. commodities.
Back in early October, the Trump administration was considering at least $10B in farmer aid, modeled after the previous Market Facilitation Program, which paid out $23B during the China trade war.

Vaden quote:
“The entire goal of any program should be to provide a bridge to 2026 and to reflect current market conditions, which thankfully have improved. Soybean prices are at 15-month highs… but we will need to take that new data into account as we measure the amount of aid that we can and should provide.”

🚢 Big USDA Flash Sale to China
USDA reported a 792,000mt (29M bushel) soybean sale to China on Tuesday. Combined with last week’s 232,000mt flash sale, China has now purchased roughly 1mmt (38M bushels) of U.S. soybeans in recent weeks.
Yesterday’s announcement confirmed Monday’s rumored sales — and in classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” fashion, the market peaked right before confirmation. More flash sales later this week wouldn’t be surprising.

📊 CFTC Data Returns Today
The CFTC will resume publishing Commitment of Traders reports today for the first time since the late-September report. The shutdown limited data availability and discouraged large speculative positioning.
This afternoon’s release will cover data originally scheduled for October 3.

Private estimates heading into yesterday’s close:
Funds short 50k corn
Long 150k soybeans
Short 60k SRW wheat

CFTC won’t be fully caught up until late January—a frustrating delay in an era where this should take a week.

🚜 Crop Progress Update
USDA released its first crop progress report since reopening:
Corn: 91% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 94% avg.). Nebraska only 74% vs 97% last year.
Soybeans: 95% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 96% avg.). LA, MN, and SD are finished.
Winter Wheat: 45% good/excellent (49% last year, slightly above 44% avg).

🌧️ Argentina Flooding Delays Planting
Flooding is delaying corn and soybean planting in parts of Argentina. Roughly 1.5M hectares (3.7M acres) are at high risk of becoming unusable after months of heavy rain. Poor drainage and rural road conditions have worsened the situation.

Argentina is the world’s top soybean meal & oil exporter and the #3 corn exporter. USDA expects 24M hectares (59.3M acres) of combined corn/soy area this season—meaning about 6% of total area is at risk.

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🌤️ Markets: Soybeans Surge on China Buying

Soybean futures ripped higher Monday on renewed optimism that China is finally buying US product. Jan26 soybeans jumped about 33 cents to $11.57, the best trade since June 2024.
Reuters reported that COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes (~31 mil bu), while Bloomberg pegged the total closer to 20 cargoes. One soybean cargo = ~60,000mt or ~2.2 mil bu.

China’s recent buying (including last week’s 232kmt flash sale) suggests total purchases of 1.0–1.4mmt in recent weeks — only 8–12% of the 12mmt the White House says China will buy before Jan 1. The rally and firmer spreads are being driven entirely by this Chinese activity.

But… higher US futures are once again pricing us above Brazil, hurting competitiveness.

📊 USDA Flash Sale Corrections

USDA revised several daily sales from the shutdown backlog:
The early-November soybean sale to China was cut from 232kmt to 132kmt after a 100kmt cancellation.

Total Chinese soybean purchases reported via flash sales now total 232kmt over two separate announcements.

USDA also removed a previously reported corn sale to Japan.

🏭 NOPA Crush Sets a Record

NOPA members processed 227.65 million bushels in October — a new all-time high.
+15% from September
+14% from October 2024
Well above the trade estimate of 209.52 million

Soybean oil stocks hit 1.31 billion lbs—still the third-lowest October on record, but:
+5% vs September
+22% vs last year
Above expectations at 1.26 billion

🚢 Export Inspections Mixed

Soybeans:
USDA reported 1.2mmt (~43 mil bu) inspected last week —
• +4.6% on the week
• –48% vs last year
• Zero inspected for China

Corn:
2.1mmt (~81 mil bu) —
• +38% on the week
• +135% vs last year
• Easily beat expectations

Wheat:
246,533mt (~9 mil bu) —
• –15% on the week
• +25% vs last year
• Missed expectations

🐄 US Dairy Herd Hits 25-Year High

The US dairy herd reached 9.54 million head in Q3 — the largest since 1993. Producers are keeping more cows to expand beef-on-dairy output at a time when the US beef cow herd is at its smallest level in 70+ years.

This trend won’t fully fix the cattle shortage, but it could drive the first increase in the US calf crop since 2018 and help stabilize supply during future cattle-cycle lows.

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🇨🇳 China Falls Far Short of US Soybean Targets
Concerns are growing over China’s commitment to purchase US soybeans. USDA data released Friday showed that China has purchased just 332,000mt of US soybeans since the recently negotiated trade truce—less than 3% of the 12mmt China was reported to have agreed to buy by January. Officials also suggested China would purchase 25mmt annually for the next three years, but there’s little evidence of follow-through.

With 31 business days left in 2025, China would need to average 376,387mt per day (about 14 million bushels daily) to meet the target. For now, China has little incentive to buy US soybeans because Brazil and South America are offering cheaper, abundant supplies. Even so, President Trump has said Chinese officials assured him that “much larger” purchases are coming.

📊 USDA Report: Bearish Corn, Softer Soybean Outlook
Friday’s USDA report carried a bearish tone for corn. USDA cut the national corn yield to 186 bpa and production to 16.75B bu, but trade expected even lower. The average pre-report guess was 184 bpa and 16.56B bu.

Soybean yield was trimmed to 53 bpa, with production at 4.25B bu, both below expectations. Despite the new US–China trade truce, USDA reduced its soybean export forecast to 1.6B bu. The agency also noted that several normal data sources were unavailable, raising concerns about data quality and reliability.

🧪 Tariffs Removed on Fertilizer Products
President Trump signed an executive order Friday removing reciprocal tariffs on several agricultural inputs, including DAP, MAP, and potash. The American Soybean Association welcomed the move, expecting lower fertilizer costs for farmers. Critics counter that the rollback effectively admits that prior tariffs raised consumer and producer costs. The administration maintains the tariffs improved America’s economic leverage.

🇧🇷 Brazil Weather: Spotty Rain, Slow Soybean Planting
Inconsistent rainfall continues to slow Brazil’s planting pace. AgRural estimated soybean planting at 71%, behind 80% during the same week last year. CropProphet data shows key Brazilian soybean areas received 82% of normal rainfall over the past two weeks, with Mato Grosso at 77%.

🥩 Tariff Changes for Food Products
Trump also reduced tariffs on certain food products not grown in the US, including beef. The order removes the 10% tariff imposed on Brazilian beef last April but leaves the existing 40% tariff (from July) and 26.4% over-quota tariff in place—meaning Brazilian beef still faces a combined 66.4% rate. The policy shift has introduced uncertainty into cattle markets and weighed on prices.

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🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA Reports
Corn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.

📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)
Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.
• Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines
• US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases
• Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks
• October reports were skipped due to the shutdown

🚢 US Export Sales Return After Shutdown
For the week ending Sept 25:
• Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer
• Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer
• Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer

⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still Strong
Weekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:
• Output: -2.7%
• Stocks: +1%
Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.

🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean Outlook
Soybeans:
• Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)
• Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exports
Corn:
• Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)
• Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)

🌧️ US Drought Monitor Update
Rainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.
• Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana
• Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin
• High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of Oklahoma

US Areas in Drought:
🌽 Corn—29%
🫘 Soybeans—31%
🌾 Winter Wheat — 39%
🌾 Spring Wheat—17%
🐄 Cattle — 28%

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🌱 Grain Markets This Morning
Soybean futures posted fresh highs overnight. Jan26 pushed above $11.40 for the first time this year, marking the best continuation trade since July 2024. Corn and wheat followed higher — Dec25 corn added a few cents to trade near $4.35 as traders brace for a potential USDA yield cut on Friday. Dryness and disease across parts of the Corn Belt remain key storylines.

🇨🇳 US–China Truce & 2025 Soybean Acres
Market economist Ed Usset (University of Minnesota) says the trade truce is supportive for soybean demand, basis, and planted acreage next year. Soybean futures are at one-year highs, crush demand keeps climbing, and he compared today’s soybean story to early ethanol-era corn demand 15–20 years ago.
Early farm budgets still lean toward corn, but the Dec26 corn / Nov26 soybean ratio has softened with recent rallies in both markets.

🚫 China Has Stopped Buying US Soybeans (Again)
Chinese soybean purchases have paused following a brief round of post-truce buying. There’s growing doubt they’ll meet:
12mmt pledge before Jan 1
25mmt annually over the next three years
China never officially confirmed the commitments, and many analysts see them as more diplomatic than binding. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper, China’s stocks are comfortable, and US beans still face a 13% tariff.
With the 43-day government shutdown now over, traders will look to tomorrow’s USDA export sales to reveal what (if anything) China bought in recent weeks.

🌾 Friday’s USDA Crop Production & WASDE (11:00am CST)
Expectations heading into Friday:
Corn: Large downward yield/production revision expected, though still record-large crop
Soybeans: Slight cuts to yield and production
Ending stocks: Modestly higher for corn/soy/wheat
Global stocks: Minimal changes expected
USDA skipped the October reports due to the shutdown, so this release covers two months of revisions.

🍌 Tariff Talk: Food Imports on the Table
The Trump administration is considering removing tariffs on food items not produced domestically — coffee, bananas, etc. The discussion comes after GOP losses in recent state/local elections where cost-of-living concerns were front and center.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says household costs should ease by the first half of 2026. He also reiterated that no final decision has been made on Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend.
Many of the affected products are sourced from Brazil, and some traders think the administration may be preparing to drop current 50% tariffs on certain Brazilian imports. Beef imports are being discussed quietly given Trump's recent clash with high beef prices.

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🇨🇳 China Chooses Brazil
China’s state-owned COFCO has signed a $10B deal to purchase 20mmt of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other ag products. The agreement includes contracts with ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus.
Despite the recent US–China trade truce, Beijing has yet to make major US soybean purchases—and the 13% tariff on US soybeans remains in place. While much of this business likely would’ve happened anyway, it’s a bad look for the U.S. considering the White House’s touted 12mmt purchase floor due by January 1st.

🇹🇭 Thailand Boosts U.S. Corn Imports
As part of its U.S. trade concessions, Thailand will raise its annual feed-corn import quota from 54,700mt to 1mmt — and eliminate the 20% in-quota tariff.
Imports will be allowed Feb 1–June 30 to protect domestic producers. Thailand’s total feed demand is projected at 21.8mmt, with about 60% imported, mainly corn, soybean meal, and wheat. The country isn’t a top-10 global importer, but it’s a notable shift in regional demand.

🏛️ Shutdown Nears an End
The Senate passed a temporary funding bill Monday, and the House votes today. The measure would fund most agencies through January, with USDA funded through September 30.
All unpaid federal workers will be compensated, and no layoffs are expected through January. Still, it may take weeks for USDA reporting and air travel to normalize.
Traders are watching for the return of two key reports:
1️⃣ CFTC Commitment of Traders – what are “the funds” doing?
2️⃣ USDA Export Sales – has China actually bought anything?

🌽 WASDE & Crop Production Ahead
The USDA’s November reports drop Friday at 11:00am CST. Markets expect:
A downward revision to U.S. corn yield and production
Slight declines for soybeans
Marginal increases to U.S. ending stocks
Because of the shutdown, October’s reports were skipped—so this release carries extra weight. 

📈 Grain Market Recap
Futures were mixed Tuesday—corn and Chicago wheat gained modestly, while soybeans slipped.
Traders continue to assess the pace of a government reopening and China’s lack of buying activity despite the trade truce. Beijing seems to have little incentive to meet even short-term U.S. purchase goals.