Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🏦 Fed Cuts Rates for the Third Straight Meeting
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates another quarter point on Wednesday, bringing the fed funds rate down to 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest since September 2022. Three FOMC members dissented — the most pushback since 2019 — signaling deep concern about the path forward.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the goal is to steady the labor market while keeping inflation moving toward the 2% target. The Fed’s new projections show just one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, far fewer than markets expected.
Some economists warn that stagflation is becoming a real risk — inflation that stays too high while job growth weakens.
👉 Prices keep rising while the economy slows, family budgets get squeezed, and fixing one problem risks worsening the other.

🌱 Soybeans Rebound on Flash Sales
Soybean futures stabilized after multi-week lows. Jan26 beans +4¢, settling near $10.91 after USDA announced a 5 mil bu sale to China and 12 mil bu to unknown destinations. Gains were limited by ongoing confusion regarding China’s schedule for buying the agreed 12mmt of U.S. soybeans.
Corn and wheat moved lower:
• Mar26 corn −4¢ → ~$4.44
• Mar Chicago wheat −5¢ → ~$5.30

🚢 Fresh Flash Sales Reported Wednesday
USDA confirmed new export activity for 2025/26 delivery:
• 136,000mt soybeans → China (~5 mil bu)
• 331,000mt soybeans → Unknown (~12 mil bu)
• 120,000mt soybean cake & meal → Poland

🌾 Trump Administration Rolls Out $700M Regenerative Ag Pilot
The White House announced a $700 million program under “Make America Healthy Again” to expand practices like cover crops, no-till, conservation planning, and whole-farm soil & water management.
Farmers will apply through EQIP or CSP, with an emphasis on soil health, water quality, and habitat.
📝 Payment rates have not yet been released.

⚓ Ukraine Hits Russia’s Shadow Fleet Again
Ukraine used Sea Baby drones to attack a large Suezmax tanker tied to Russia’s oil trade. The empty vessel (1 million-barrel capacity) suffered major damage.
As these attacks continue:
• Freight costs are expected to rise
• Crews are increasingly wary of Black Sea movements
• Putin warned he may retaliate against vessels controlled by Ukraine’s allies
• He also suggested Russia could cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea entirely

⛽ US Ethanol Production Slips
Weekly ethanol output fell to 1.11 million bpd (−1.9% vs. last week, +3% vs. last year).
Stocks declined to 22.51 million barrels, slightly lower week-over-week and −2.1% versus last year.
Margins have weakened: Reuters estimates break-even to +30¢ across the Corn Belt based on spot corn, DDGs, inputs, and product values.

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🇨🇳 Soybean Purchase Deadline Confusion
Questions remain over China’s commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. On Tuesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the deadline isn’t year-end but “end of the growing season.” Nobody seems to agree on what that actually means. The White House fact sheet indicated the end of 2025, while Greer insists there’s a discrepancy in the published deadline vs. the real one.
So far this marketing year, China has purchased only 3mmt of US soybeans. The CNBC article we’re referencing is… interesting. Greer, Bessent, and former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber all seem to have different interpretations of the deadline. 

📊 USDA Report—Soybeans Weak, Corn Strong
Tuesday’s WASDE didn’t bring many surprises.
• Soybean exports unchanged at 1.64B bu—a 13-year low
• Ending stocks unchanged at 290M bu
• Exports currently running ~40% below last year → further cuts likely
Corn was the bright spot:
• Record 3.2B bu corn export forecast
• Ending stocks trimmed to 2.03B bu, lower than trade expected

🚜 Deere Responds on High Machinery Costs
After President Trump’s call for lower tractor prices, John Deere says it is helping farmers cut costs—not by lowering sticker prices, but through automation that reduces labor and chemical use.
Equipment inflation has been driven by:
• Post-COVID manufacturing inflation
• Tech advancements
• Steel & aluminum tariffs

🐄 USDA Cuts 2026 Fat Cattle Price Forecast
• New forecast: $235/cwt—down 4.5% from November
• Still 5% above the 2025 projection
USDA cited reduced packing capacity as the driver.
Tyson is closing its Lexington, NE, beef plant and cutting the second shift at Amarillo.
US beef imports for 2026 are now forecast at a record 5.45M lbs, supported by tariff relief on major suppliers like Brazil.

🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Grain Export Taxes
Permanent tax cuts are coming soon:
• Soybeans 24% → 22%
• Soymeal/soyoil 24.5% → 22.5%
• Corn 9.5% → 8.5%
• Wheat 9.5% → 7.5%
Milei’s government frames this as a step toward fully eliminating export tariffs.

🥈 Silver Breaks Record High
Spot silver rallied ~4% Tuesday to $60.50/oz 📈
Drivers include:
• Expected Fed rate cuts today
• Newly added to US critical minerals list → tariff & supply concerns
• Weaker dollar + geopolitical safe-haven flows
Silver is now up ~110% YTD, beating gold and platinum. 

📑 CFTC Data Catch-Up Accelerated
Commitments of Traders Reports will be current by the end of December, not late January.
Expect fast-tracked report releases over the next several weeks.

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🚜 Farm Aid & Tractor Prices
President Trump announced a $12 billion farm aid package on Monday and urged ag equipment makers to lower tractor prices — blaming environmental regulations for higher costs. The administration plans to lift some of those rules to reduce equipment expenses.

• $11B → one-time payments to row-crop farmers under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program
• $1B → specialty crops
• Eligibility: AGI below $900k for 2022–24 tax years
• Acreage reporting due by Dec 19 — 5pm ET
• Payments expected by Feb 28, 2026

FBA looks much more like ECAP than the old MFP. Rates aren’t out yet.

Covered crops: Barley, Chickpeas, Corn, Cotton, Lentils, Oats, Peanuts, Peas, Rice, Sorghum, Soybeans, Wheat, Canola, Crambe, Flax, Mustard, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sesame & Sunflower.

📊 USDA Crop Production Report—Today 11:00am CST
Traders expect minimal changes to US ending stocks:
• Corn & wheat → slight declines
• Soybeans → modest increase
Global: slightly more beans & wheat, slightly fewer corn stocks.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook
AgRural projects:
• Corn: 135.3mmt (↓ from 141.1mmt record last year)
• Soybeans: 178.5mmt (unchanged)
Dry southern weather remains a risk to yields.

The US crop is ~3.2× bigger than Brazil’s upcoming corn crop—but Brazil will export ~33% of production vs the US at 18–19%. 📦

🇨🇳 Flash Sale to China
Another soybean flash sale Monday:
• 132,000mt (5 mil bu) → China for 25/26 delivery
Since late October, China has now booked 2.85mmt (105 mil bu) via flash sales.

🚢 Export Inspections
Week ending Dec 4:
• Soybeans: 1mmt—+9% vs wk prior but -41% vs last year
• Corn: 1.5 mmt—above expectations, +36% vs last year
• Wheat: 393kmt—+59% vs last year

China finally showed up—119,895 mt of beans were inspected at the Gulf.
PNW still quiet: only one cargo to Taiwan from WA/OR.

📝 Export Sales (still catch-up reports)
Week ending Nov 6:
• Beans: 510,600 mt—down 59% w/w (China lead buyer)
• Corn: 979,500 mt—down 51% w/w (Japan lead buyer)
• Wheat: 462,500 mt—up 8% w/w (Japan lead buyer)

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The Trump administration is expected to announce a $12 billion aid package for farmers today. The announcement will take place around 2 this afternoon in Washington, DC. About $11 billion will go to crop farmers through the new Farmer Bridge Assistance program, with the rest going toward other commodities. The funds have been authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act and will be administered by the FSA.

🎯 China Soybean Purchases Back in Gear!
China resumed buying US soybeans late last week. US exporters reported 462,000mt (17M bushels) sold to China for 25/26 delivery. Since late October, China’s total buys sit at 2.7mmt (~100M bu)… still a long way from the 12mmt commitment. 📉

🤝 US–China Trade Call
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng held a “productive” video call Friday. The big talking point: the new trade truce and soybean commitments.
🗓️ The wrinkle:
The White House originally said 12mmt by Dec 31, but last week Bessent suggested deliveries would instead occur by the end of February—raising fresh questions about the terms of this “commitment.”

📊 Fund Activity: Catch-Up CFTC Data
The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:
Funds bought 76k corn contracts 🌽
Funds bought 83k soybean contracts 🌱
→ Net long 120k = biggest since April 2018
Funds bought 34k SRW wheat contracts 🌾
The big soybean buying lines up with the late-October trade truce.
CFTC says data will be fully current by late January.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Update
Planting is nearly wrapped up:
91% planted vs 95% last year
Mostly complete in Mato Grosso and other top states
New crop estimates vary widely:
Patria: 171.9mmt
Conab: 177.6mmt
USDA: 175mmt
🌧️ Next 10 days: Most of Brazil sees rainfall—especially the dry south

🇺🇸 Early USDA Acreage Outlook
USDA’s first look at 26/27:
Corn: 95M acres (↓ 3.7%)
Soybeans: 85M acres (↑ 4.8%)
Wheat: 44M acres (↓ 2.9%)
These numbers reflect expectations from USDA’s Nov. 14 WASDE.

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🌽 Grain Export Demand Still 🔥
USDA reported multiple flash corn sales on Thursday:
• 100,800mt to Colombia
• 392,500mt to Mexico
➡️ Both for 2025/26 MY
Corn demand remains fantastic — 🚢 exports + ⚗️ ethanol running near record pace — yet futures just can’t seem to catch a bid.

📦 “Catch-Up” Export Sales Report
Week ending Oct 30:
• Corn: 2mmt — down 📉 11% WoW (Mexico biggest buyer)
• Soybeans: 1.2mmt — down 📉 14% WoW (Unknown biggest buyer; China finally showed with 232kmt)
• Wheat: 505kmt — down slightly (Mexico biggest buyer)

🐖 China’s Pork Prices Keep Sinking
• Pork values now the lowest since 2022
• Prices -18% YTD, expected to fall further
• Weak consumer spending + slow economy
• China’s sow herd only -2.1% YoY so far
➡️ If cuts deepen → less feed demand → soybean implications

⛽ API Flips Again on E15
American Petroleum Institute now supports year-round E15 🤯
✔ Joined biofuel groups urging legislation
✔ Also pushing for limits on EPA refinery exemptions
🔊 Pete Meyer:
“Positive step but not mandatory. Stations need blender pumps + storage — not feasible in big cities.”

🌾 Canada’s Record Wheat Crop
StatsCan final crop report:
• ~40mmt wheat, 🔺11.2% YoY — new all-time record
• Beats 38.5mmt estimates
• Spring wheat the driver: 29.3mmt (+10.3% YoY)
➡️ More pressure on a wheat market already struggling — especially spring wheat vs winter wheat

🌦 Drought Monitor Update
Corn Belt: mostly steady
✔ Improvements: N. Illinois & SE Wisconsin
❌ Slight worsening: Michigan
High Plains: little change
✔ Only modest improvement in NE Kansas

US Areas in Drought:
• Corn — 30%
• Soybeans — 30%
• Winter Wheat — 35%
• Spring Wheat — 16%
• Cattle — 25%

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🚜 China Soybeans: Goalposts Moving?
China is expected to fulfill its US soybean purchase agreement… eventually. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China will meet its commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. The White House originally said by year-end, but Bessent now expects by the end of February. To date, China has purchased just 2.2mmt (~19%) of the required volume. 🤨
The White House "Fact" Sheet stated—verbatim—that China will buy at least 12mmt during the last two months of 2025… plus 25mmt annually through 2028. Now the timeline has magically shifted. Sure sounds like some goalpost-dragging. 

📦 Chinese shipments of US soybeans are set to ramp up in the coming weeks:
At least 6 vessels scheduled to load from the Gulf
1 vessel already en route—the first since May
Still well behind typical purchase pace
Low Chinese demand = pressure on soybean prices
US sorghum shipments to China have also resumed for the first time since March.

🌽 Iowa Eyeing More Corn in 2026
Iowa State University’s Dennis Johnson says farmers in north-central Iowa are leaning toward more corn acres next year. Corn has been the consistent moneymaker—despite some southern rust this year—and early 2026 budgets still favor corn over beans.
He advised not to go overboard on fungicides next season… Just scout the crop.

⛽️ Ethanol Production = New Record
US output hit 1.13mil bpd last week—an all-time high.
Stocks rose to 22.51mil barrels.
But… ethanol margins have softened:
Roughly –$0.05 to +$0.25/gal depending on the plant

⚓ Black Sea Insurance Costs Explode
Ukrainian attacks on Russian-affiliated vessels have caused insurance rates to triple for ships calling at Russian ports. Escalating risks raise concerns about retaliation:
➡️ Potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure
➡️ Ongoing pressure on global grain trade dynamics

📉 US Jobs Market Cooldown Continues
ADP reports 32,000 private-sector job losses in November vs. +47,000 in October. Hiring has slowed sharply under tariff fallout + tighter immigration.

Monthly job growth:
62k (Jul–Sep 2025) vs 186k (same period 2024) 😬
Markets see an 87% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 10.

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🇷🇺 Black Sea Threats Push Grain Higher
Tensions escalated again this week after Russia warned it may retaliate for a recent surge in Ukrainian attacks on its tanker fleet. Vladimir Putin said Moscow could strike vessels belonging to countries that support Ukraine and even cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea if attacks continue. Several Russian-affiliated tankers have already been targeted over the last week — a notable escalation from prior sporadic incidents.
Corn and wheat futures responded quickly: Mar26 corn +5¢ to $4.50, and March Chicago wheat +6¢ to $5.41. Russia and Ukraine together are expected to account for 27% of global wheat exports and 13.5% of global corn exports this year. 🌎

🌱 China Soybean Commitment: Can They Still Do It?
Some traders still believe China can meet its 12mmt US soybean purchase pledge, but they’ve got a long way to go. State-owned importers — especially Cofco — are expected to ramp up buying in the next few weeks, including shipments destined for state reserves.
The problem? US beans are still priced at a premium versus South America, leaving little commercial incentive. To date, China has purchased only 2.25mmt — just 18.8% of its commitment. To hit the target, they’d need to buy more than 2mmt per week for the rest of the year.
There are 20 business days left in 2025, meaning China must average 487,450mt per business day to reach the White House goal. Most analysts view recent buying as short-term political optics, not a durable shift toward US supplies.

🚢 More US Soybeans Heading to China
Reuters reports at least six bulk vessels will load soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals in the next two weeks. Based on USDA flash data, China has “officially” purchased 2.2mmt so far this marketing year—but the true number could be higher due to USDA reporting delays.
These shipments likely reflect previously reported sales. China taking a small batch of US soybeans is not new information and not bullish.

💵 Bridge Payment Coming Next Week
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed Tuesday that a farm “bridge payment” will be announced next week. The program is designed to provide short-term relief while longer-term trade and assistance plans are finalized.
President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” expanded farm support, but many groups argue more is needed heading into next season. Even before the bridge payment, the US is on track to spend $40+ billion on farm payments this year—the second-highest total since 1933. 🌾

📈 Farmer Sentiment Surges
US farmer sentiment jumped sharply in November. Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer rose to 139, the highest since June, with much of the increase driven by stronger future expectations. The Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144.
This was the first survey after the newly negotiated US–China trade truce, likely boosting optimism.

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Welcome back! Lawmakers are zeroed in on trade issues and a potential new farm-aid package as the year winds down. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is expected to release details this week—but many in D.C. and across farm country say it won’t be nearly enough. The American Farm Bureau notes that the rumored $12B is a fraction of the $50B+ in losses farmers have endured over the last three years. Deputy USDA Secretary Stephen Vaden added that recently negotiated trade deals could impact how much aid is ultimately distributed.

🚢 Export Inspections: Soybeans Still Dragging
Soybeans: 920,194mt (34M bu) — +14% vs last week, but -56% vs last year 😬
Corn: 1.4mmt (56M bu)—-16% vs last week, +50% vs last year 🚀
Wheat: 384,881mt (14M bu) — -20% vs last week, +29% vs last year
A small amount of sorghum headed to China. Expect more China-bound soybeans in the coming weeks.

🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update
Private group AgRural pegs soybean planting at 89%, slightly behind last year’s 91%. Moisture issues exist in pockets, but it’s still too early to raise yield concerns.
Patria Agronegocios: 171.9mmt (+0.2%)
Conab: 177.6mmt
USDA: 175.0mmt

📈 Catch-Up Export Sales (Week Ending Oct 23)
Soybeans: 1.4mmt (53M bu), +31%, Mexico top buyer
Corn: 1.8mmt (71M bu), -36%, Mexico top buyer
Wheat: 499,800mt (18M bu), +46%, unknown destinations top buyer

🇦🇺 Massive Australian Wheat Crop Incoming
Australia’s Department of Agriculture raised its forecast to 35.6 mmt—up 5.3% and potentially the third-largest crop on record.
Timely spring rains + mild temps = big yields.
This adds to global supply pressure, with Chicago wheat recently hitting 5-year lows.
USDA expects Australia to account for 4.3% of global output this year.

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Stay informed—stay independent. 🌾📈

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Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down export sales, flash deals, China/Brazil soybean news, ethanol margins, and record-setting Black Friday spending. 👇

📦 Weekly Export Sales (Backdated Again…)
Corn:
USDA reported 2.8mmt (111 mil bu) in net corn sales for the week ending Oct 16—well above expectations and sharply higher than last week. Mexico was the top buyer.
I continue to believe that in real time, US corn sales are running at a record pace, despite the outdated data.
Soybeans:
Net sales hit 1.1mmt (41 mil bu), up 41% from last week. The Netherlands was the top buyer.
Wheat:
Came in at 341,300mt (13 mil bu), below expectations and down 44% from last week. Colombia was the top buyer.

🚨 Flash Sales Update
USDA reported multiple flashes Friday:
• 312,000mt (11 mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 25/26
• 273,988mt (11 mil bu) of corn sold to Unknown for 25/26

Through Flash Sales alone, China has achieved 18.1% of the 12mmt pre-January purchase goal.
There are 22 business days left in 2025.
China must average 443,136mt/day to hit the White House target.

🇨🇳🇧🇷 China Suspends Some Brazilian Soybean Imports
China halted shipments from five Brazilian export facilities after detecting pesticide-treated wheat contamination. Impacted companies include Cargill, CHS, and Louis Dreyfus.
Exports from unaffected plants will continue — China still has 2,000+ approved Brazilian facilities. Similar issues earlier this year were resolved quickly.

🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins
• Production rose to 1.11 mil bpd last week (+2% WoW).
• Stocks fell to 21.97 mil barrels (-1.5% WoW).
• Both metrics are slightly stronger vs. the same week last year.
Margins remain solid:
Reuters shows Corn Belt ethanol plants earning +10¢ to +40¢ per gallon depending on local corn, DDGs, and inputs.

🛍️ Black Friday: Record Online Spending
US consumers spent $11.8B online on Black Friday (+9.1% YoY) and another $6.4B on Thanksgiving Day.
In-store traffic fell 3.6% YoY.
Despite tariff uncertainty and a softening job market, analysts still expect holiday spending to top $1T this season—with more shoppers leaning on buy-now-pay-later options.

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🇨🇳 China Steps Up US Soybean Buying
China made major purchases of US soybeans this week. Since Tuesday, Chinese buyers have booked an estimated 10–15 cargoes — roughly $300 million in value. These sales followed President Trump’s call with Xi Jinping, during which Trump urged China to accelerate purchases, and Xi largely agreed. All cargoes are slated for January shipment out of Gulf Coast and PNW ports.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that US soybean exports to China are “right on schedule.” The Trump administration claims China has agreed to buy 12mmt before Jan 1 and 25mmt annually for the next three years. China has not officially confirmed these numbers, but Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins expects confirmation in the coming weeks.

🕊️ Ukraine–Russia Peace Framework?
Multiple sources say Ukraine is ready to move forward with a US-backed peace framework. The original US proposal — once 28 points and seen as favorable to Russia — has been cut to 19 revised points after input from both sides.
Russia has not yet confirmed its position, and major terms are still unresolved. US officials will continue negotiations this week.

📊 CFTC Fund Positioning Update
CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:
Funds sold 54k corn contracts → net short grows to 188k, the largest since early July.
Funds sold 1k soybean and 15k SRW wheat contracts.
SRW wheat net short of 111k is the biggest since mid-May.
Private estimates for yesterday’s close:
Corn: –110k
Soybeans: +120k
SRW Wheat: –65k
CFTC expects to be fully current by late January. Charts below.

🚢 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
For the week ending Oct 9:
Corn: 1.3 mmt—down 41%
Soybeans: 785k mt—down 15%
Wheat: 613.9k mt—down 31%
Mexico was the top buyer across all three. 

🎰 Online Betting Risks Are Growing
Bank of America warns that online betting and prediction markets are driving higher debt loads, especially among low-income consumers and young men.
Research shows:
Lower credit scores
Higher bankruptcy rates
More debt going to collections
Prediction markets have surged, letting people bet “yes/no” on everything from elections to sports.