Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🪙 Precious Metals

Silver prices surged last week, hitting a new all-time high above $78.50 per ounce on Friday. Silver is now up sharply this year, supported by a structural market deficit, strong industrial demand, and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, and some analysts believe the rally could extend into 2026 amid economic uncertainty and sticky inflation. Gold and platinum also reached record highs on Friday.

💵 US Dollar & Interest Rates

The US dollar posted its largest weekly decline in six months. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% last week as traders looked ahead to key January jobs and inflation reports. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next month, but pricing suggests a rate cut by mid-year and another later in 2026. The dollar is now down roughly 8% on the year — on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017.
See charts below.

🌧️ South American Weather

Dry weather is expected across key Argentine corn and soybean areas over the next seven days. Large portions of Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba are forecast to receive little to no rainfall, while areas farther north may see only limited precipitation. The 8–14 day forecast calls for a return to more normal rainfall across much of Argentina. Meanwhile, mostly normal rainfall is expected across major Brazilian soybean regions during the next two weeks.

🌽 Grain Markets

Corn futures drifted lower on Friday, with the Mar26 contract slipping one cent to settle near $4.50. Thin holiday trade and a lack of fresh catalysts kept activity subdued. Soybean futures also declined, as the Jan26 contract fell nearly 5 cents to close near $10.59. Beans remain under pressure from ample global supplies and ongoing concerns about the pace of Chinese buying. Chicago wheat futures moved lower as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continued.

🌍 Geopolitics

President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Sunday to continue peace negotiations. Trump said the US and Ukraine are very close to an agreement to end the war, though key issues — including the future of the Donbas region — remain unresolved. No formal deadline was set, but Trump suggested clarity could come within weeks. Ahead of the meeting, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the call as productive and noting Putin’s interest in helping rebuild Ukraine, including supplying low-cost energy.

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🚁 Drone Industry Shock
A new ban on Chinese-made drones is sending shockwaves through the U.S. drone industry.
On Monday, the FCC banned drones and critical components manufactured in certain foreign countries, citing national security risks. The restrictions primarily target Chinese manufacturers—including DJI, which controls an estimated 70–90% of the U.S. drone market.
The ban does not apply to drones already purchased or currently sitting in stores, though the FCC has left the door open to expanding restrictions to older models in the future.
U.S. officials have long warned that Chinese-made drones could allow data access or interference by the Chinese government. Drone pilots and ag operators warn that under the new rules, many businesses may only have a few years left.

🌽 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Edition)
USDA released another outdated, catch-up Export Sales report on Tuesday.
Soybeans: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, up sharply from the prior week
China was the top buyer, accounting for 58% of total sales
Corn: Solid sales near the high end of expectations at 1.7 mmt
Japan was the largest buyer
Wheat: Sales totaled 432,600 mt, with Mexico leading purchases
Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 5.4 mmt, though real-time estimates suggest the total could be closer to 7–8 mmt.
USDA says Export Sales reports will be fully current by January 8th.

🌱 Grain Market Update
Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday.
The Jan ’26 contract slipped slightly, as traders remain cautious about the pace of Chinese buying and the looming pressure from another record Brazilian soybean crop.
While the market often sees a year-end rally, bearish fundamentals continue to cap upside.

🇺🇸 U.S. Economy Update
The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter.
GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3%, beating expectations. Growth was driven mainly by strong consumer spending, along with higher exports and government spending.
Notably, analysts pointed out that rising healthcare costs accounted for a meaningful share of Q3 GDP growth.

🥇 Precious Metals Explosion
Precious metals ripped to record highs on Tuesday.
Silver surged past $70/oz
Gold climbed above $4,490/oz
Platinum and palladium also moved sharply higher
The rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong investment demand.

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🏛️ USDA Workforce Cuts & Data Quality
The US Department of Agriculture saw a massive workforce reduction in the first half of the year. Between January and June, more than 20,000 employees left the agency—about 18% of total staff.
Most departures were tied to the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation program, which offered up to six months’ pay. Over 15,000 employees accepted the program, while roughly 2,000 resigned and about 1,300 retired.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service was hit especially hard, losing more than one-third of its workforce. DTN reported that NASS alone lost 275 employees—about 34% of staff—during the first six months of the year.
A USDA Office of Inspector General report shows that another 4,200 employees left between June and October. While USDA says it continues to hire for critical roles and refocus on a “farmer-first” mission, some recent USDA data issues are likely tied to severe understaffing.

🚢 Weekly Export Inspections
US soybean shipments were weak last week, landing near the low end of expectations. USDA reported soybean inspections at 870,199 mt, up from the prior week but sharply lower versus last year. About 44% of shipments were headed to China.
Corn shipments were strong, coming in at 1.7 mmt, well above last year. Wheat shipments also beat expectations at 627,443 mt.
Soybean shipments to China totaled 386,010 mt. Only one cargo moved through the PNW, with the rest shipped out of the Gulf.

🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Outlook
AgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180.4 mmt, well above last season and above USDA’s forecast. Crop conditions have been favorable so far, and harvest has begun in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso.
Conab is forecasting production slightly lower, but still historically large. Yield potential will depend heavily on weather in the months ahead.

🌍 Wheat Market & Black Sea Tensions
Wheat futures moved higher amid escalating Black Sea tensions. Russia increased attacks near Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Ukraine struck Russia’s port of Taman. The disruption risks pushed Chicago wheat futures higher on the session.

📢 USDA Flash Sales & Export Sales
USDA reported another flash sale of soybeans to China, with most of the volume booked for the 2025/26 marketing year.
Export sales data showed strong soybean sales, led by China, while corn and wheat sales came in lower week-to-week. The report was part of USDA’s ongoing catch-up releases.

💰 Gold & Macro Markets
Gold surged to a new record above $4,400 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risk and expectations for interest rate cuts next year. Rising global tensions and uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. Silver prices also moved sharply higher.

👍 If you find this helpful, hit like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments.
🌾 Staying informed matters—especially right now.

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🌾 USDA Farm Aid Update
The USDA confirmed it has no plans for additional farm assistance beyond the recently announced $12 billion aid package.
Farmers continue to face weak markets, high input costs, and trade disruptions tied to President Trump’s tariffs.
Estimated farm losses could reach $44 billion this year, far exceeding available aid.
USDA acknowledged the shortfall but cited funding limitations.
Payments are expected to be distributed by late February, with Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payment rates due before year-end.

🏛️ Treasury Secretary Sells Farmland
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed the sale of his North Dakota farmland following ethics scrutiny.
Through a partnership, Bessent owned 5,000+ acres generating rental income.
In October, he referred to himself as a “soybean farmer,” drawing criticism because the land was held purely as an investment.
Ethics rules required divestment upon taking office, but illiquidity delayed the sale.
The land was sold on December 15 for roughly $12.4 million to an entity tied to a longtime friend and business partner.

🌽 Brazil Corn Crop Trimmed
Safras & Mercado lowered Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 142.9 mmt, slightly below its prior forecast.
The estimate still sits well above USDA’s outlook (131 mmt) and Conab’s 138.8 mmt.
Weather remains mostly favorable with abundant rainfall and near-to-above-average temperatures expected.

🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports: No U.S. Beans in November
China imported zero U.S. soybeans in November for the third straight month, versus 2.8 mmt last year.
Brazil accounted for 72% of November imports (up 49% YoY).
Argentina surged, supplying 22% of imports (up 634% YoY).
Through November, China imported 103.8 mmt, with the U.S. making up just 16%.
Since the October trade truce, traders estimate China has bought 7+ mmt of U.S. soybeans.
Recent U.S. shipments should appear in December customs data.
USDA’s Export Inspections report today may confirm additional shipments.

🚨 USDA Flash Sale
U.S. exporters sold 134,000 mt (5 mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery.
Total Chinese purchases for the current marketing year now stand at 3.845 mmt (141 mil bushels) across 15 flash sales.

📊 CFTC Fund Positioning
The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report.
For the week ending December 9:
Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.
Soybean net length remains one of the largest on record.
The CFTC expects to be fully current by month-end.

🐄 Bullish Cattle on Feed Report
As of December 1:
Cattle on feed totaled 11.73 million head, down 2% YoY.
November placements fell 11% YoY, the lowest for the month since 1996.
Marketings declined 12% YoY, matching expectations.
The report is bullish, but holiday timing may limit near-term market reaction.

🏭 More Packing Plant Closures Possible
Tight cattle supplies continue to pressure packer margins.
Plants are operating below capacity, raising closure risks.
Recent closures and cutbacks by Tyson highlight the strain.
Restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports have worsened supply issues.
Even if borders reopen, rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, not months.

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Corn futures moved higher for a second straight session on Thursday. The Mar26 contract settled near $4.45, supported by strong export demand.
Accumulated US corn sales through the end of November are running well ahead of last year.
Wheat futures finished higher on short covering but remain near two-month lows.
Soybean futures continued to slide, pressured by uncertainty around Chinese buying.
There was chatter of possible Chinese purchases of US corn out of the PNW (several cargoes). A USDA flash sale today or Monday would confirm the business.

🥩 Beef Prices
Beef prices remain near record highs.
Ground beef prices jumped again in November, now well above last year’s levels.
Steak prices have also climbed sharply, depending on the cut.
The biggest driver continues to be the smallest US cowherd in more than 70 years, paired with strong consumer demand.
The Trump administration recently removed tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and called for a price-fixing investigation into the major packers.
Despite higher projected beef imports, prices are expected to stay elevated.

🌱 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.
A large volume of soybeans has now been sold to unknown destinations this year, with speculation that China accounts for roughly half.

📦 Export Sales Report
Corn export sales were strong again, with Japan leading buyers.
Soybean sales slowed from the prior week, though China was the top buyer.
Wheat sales increased week over week, with Bangladesh leading purchases.

📉 Inflation Update
CPI eased in November, coming in below expectations.
Food and energy prices were key contributors to slower inflation.
The data was collected later than usual due to the government shutdown, raising questions about accuracy.
There’s concern inflation could reaccelerate in December.

🌧️ Drought Monitor
Scattered precipitation improved drought conditions in parts of Iowa and Ohio.
Drought worsened in portions of Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri.
Conditions across the High Plains were mostly unchanged.
US Areas Experiencing Drought
Corn: 32%
Soybeans: 33%
Winter Wheat: 36%
Spring Wheat: 16%
Cattle: 27%

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🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On?
Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week.

Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume.

📊 USDA Flash Sales Recap
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:
Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 delivery
Additional soybeans sold to unknown destinations
Corn sold to Mexico
A cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in November
This mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market.

🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the Complex
Chicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue.
Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside.

⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions Escalate
Russia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals.
Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year.

💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up Report
The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.
The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December.

⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production High
US ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt.

📌 Bottom Line
China appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.

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🏥 ACA Health Insurance & Farmers
Enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums.
Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they don’t have employer-sponsored coverage.
Some families could see premiums jump by more than $20,000 per year. Affordable ACA plans have played a key role in supporting rural economies. Without them, more families may be forced into off-farm work, and rural hospitals could feel added financial strain.
As an alternative, 13 state Farm Bureaus now offer non-ACA-compliant health plans that are significantly cheaper. This issue impacts nearly every business owner and self-employed worker—and could weigh on the broader economy as disposable income shrinks.

🌱 Grain Markets
Soybean futures continued lower on Tuesday. The Jan26 contract fell 9 cents, settling near $10.63, as traders unwound long positions amid weak US export demand and expectations for a massive Brazilian crop.
Corn and wheat also finished lower. Despite solid export demand, Mar26 corn slipped about 3 cents to close near $4.37.
Chicago wheat was pressured by ample global supplies, with March futures down roughly 11 cents near $5.10.

🇨🇳 China & Soybeans
China’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned roughly 323,000mt of imported soybeans, about 63% of the total offered, to make room for incoming US supplies.
Another auction later this week will offer 550,000mt, and traders expect around 4mmt to be sold in this auction cycle.
The move comes despite ample domestic inventories, as Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans.

👷 US Labor Market
The labor market remains sluggish. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, following a sharp 105,000 decline in October, the largest drop since 2020.
Much of the weakness was tied to falling federal employment during the shutdown.
The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, reflecting softer hiring and higher labor force participation.
Part-time employment for economic reasons and long-term unemployment also increased.

🛢️ Oil & Energy
Oil prices tumbled Tuesday. WTI crude fell 2.7% to $55.27, the lowest level since February 2021.
The drop was driven by ample global supplies, rising OPEC+ production, strong US output, and growing optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.
Lower crude prices have pushed US gasoline prices below $3 per gallon, the cheapest level in nearly five years.

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🌱 NOPA Soybean Crush
NOPA released its November crush report on Monday
US soybean crush hit an all-time November record
Crush was lower than October’s record, but well above last year
End-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month high
Oil stocks also came in above trade expectations

📉 Soybean Futures Pressure
Soybean futures extended losses on Monday
The Jan26 contract settled near $10.72
Market pressure continues from:
Slow Chinese buying
Expectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channels
A near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation

🚢 Export Inspections Update
US soybean inspections disappointed last week
Shipments were well below last year’s pace
About one-quarter of soybeans were headed to China
Corn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectations
Northern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement

🧪 Fertilizer Market News
The US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekend
US fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in response
Belarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impact
Belarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supply
Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk

📦 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported additional flash sales on Monday
Soybeans sold to China for next marketing year delivery
Corn sold to unknown destinations

📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition)
USDA released another outdated export sales report
Soybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by China
Corn sales slipped from the prior week
Wheat sales landed near the low end of expectations

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🌱 Soybean, Corn & Wheat Markets
Soybean futures plunged on Friday, with the Jan ’26 contract falling nearly 17 cents to around $10.77 — the lowest level since late October. The pressure came from slowing U.S. export demand as the seasonal export window closes and growing expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Brazilian soybeans are expected to hit the export market by mid- to late January and will likely be priced at a discount to U.S. supplies, adding further downside risk. Corn and wheat futures also finished the day lower.

📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT)
The CFTC released another outdated, catch-up COT report. As of November 18, large money managers were net buyers across the grain complex. Funds were heavily long soybeans, sitting just shy of an all-time record. Notably, this was the exact time the soybean market peaked. Private estimates during the government shutdown significantly underestimated fund length, making this information largely useless from a grain marketing standpoint in real time. 

🚢 USDA Flash Sales & China Watch
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday, including soybeans sold to China, soybean meal sold to Mexico, and corn sold to unknown destinations. Officially, China has purchased just over 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year. However, trade chatter suggests actual purchases could be much larger due to sales listed as “unknown” and potential non-reportable purchases during the shutdown. Some analysts estimate total Chinese buying could be materially higher. 

🏗️ Hedge Funds Move Into Physical Commodities
Hedge funds and trading firms are increasingly investing directly in physical commodities like pipelines, storage, power generation, and energy infrastructure. The goal is to gain better data, market insight, and diversification during volatile years. While this can create new profit opportunities, it also puts hedge funds in direct competition with major global trading houses. 

⛽ 2026 Biofuel Quotas Delayed
The EPA is expected to delay finalizing 2026 biofuel quotas until next year. The agency is still reviewing public comments and plans additional stakeholder meetings. The decision could become part of a broader negotiation between oil and agricultural interests. While higher biofuel mandates could help farmers, expectations remain muted, with year-round E15 already largely conceded. A mandated E15 requirement would be the only real surprise. 

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🌱 Fertilizer Markets

Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia.
While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions.
Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production.
Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers.
For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery.
Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs
Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs
Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP.

🌎 Export Flash Sales
Soybeans:
264,000 mt to China (25/26)
266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)
Corn:
186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)

📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations
Mexico was the top buyer
Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week
Germany was the largest buyer
Small China cancellation
Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply
Unknown destinations led buying

🇧🇷 South America Update
Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt
Still a record crop if realized
The cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting
About 90% planted as of early December
First exportable supplies expected early January
Total exports estimated at 112 mmt

🌦️ US Drought Monitor
Corn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snow
Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN
High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma
Areas Experiencing Drought:
🌽 Corn: 31%
🌱 Soybeans: 31%
🌾 Winter Wheat: 34%
🌾 Spring Wheat: 16%
🐄 Cattle: 25%