Grand Tamasha

In 2014, soon after coming to power, the Narendra Modi government decided to abolish India’s decades-old Planning Commission, replacing it with a new government think tank meant to facilitate cooperative federalism. For years, the Planning Commission devised detailed, five-year, central plans meant to guide India’s economy and allocate funds from the center to India’s states.

Eight years later, the Planning Commission may be gone, but it is not forgotten. A new book by the University of Notre Dame historian Nikhil Menon, Planning Democracy: How a Professor, An Institute, and an Idea Shaped India, provides a wide-ranging history of the marriage between liberal democracy and a socialist economy, uncovering the way planning came to define not just the economy but the nation itself.

Nikhil is Milan’s guest on the show this week. They talk about the legacy of India’s planning infrastructure, the unique influence of pioneering statistician P.C. Mahalanobis, and the ways in which India’s statistical architecture was the envy of the world. Plus, the two discuss the decline of planning, the vestiges that carry on today, and India’s weakened data institutions.

1. “India’s once-vaunted statistical infrastructure is crumbling,” Economist, May 19, 2022.
2. Nikhil Menon, “A short history of data,” Hindu, March 21, 2019
3. Pramit Bhattacharya, “How India’s Statistical System Was Crippled,” Mint, May 7, 2019.

What kind of world power does India want to be? Few questions have been asked as often or as intensely since India’s economic take-off in the early 1990s and the corresponding rise in its foreign policy ambitions. 

Many of our intellectual debates seek answers to this question by looking back to the dawn of independence in 1947. A new book by political scientist Rahul Sagar, To Raise a Fallen People: How Nineteenth Century Indians Saw Their World and Shaped Ours, invites readers to look even further back to the oft-forgotten, raucous debates of the 19th century. 

Rahul joins Milan on the podcast this week to talk about his new book and the intellectual roots of India’s strategic thought. Milan and Rahul discuss the debate over India’s strategic culture, its “half-hearted” approach to great power politics, and the salience of 19th-century debates for understanding the current foreign policy discourse on Russia-Ukraine.

1. Rahul Sagar, “If it doesn’t learn from the past, the West can lose India (again),” Times of India, May 22, 2022.
2. Rahul Sagar, The Progressive Maharaja: Sir Madhava Rao's Hints on the Art and Science of Government (London: Hurst, 2022). 
3. Rahul Sagar, “‘Jiski Lathi, Uski Bhains’: The Hindu Nationalist View of International Politics,” in Kanti Bajpai, Saira Basit, and V. Krishnappa, eds., India’s Grand Strategy: History, Theory, Cases (New Delhi: Routledge, 2016).

Over the weekend, Australian voters elected a new government with the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and Anthony Albanese at the helm, ousting the ruling Liberal-National Coalition for the first time in a decade. Key to the ALP’s landmark victory was the vote of the Indo-Australians, now the second largest immigrant group in Australia.

A new Carnegie study co-authored by Devesh Kapur, Caroline Duckworth, and our very own Milan Vaishnav, sheds light on three elements of the Indo-Australian community’s political behavior: the community’s political preferences, leadership preferences, and policy priorities. 

This week, we put Milan in the hot seat to discuss his new study along with Caroline Duckworth, a James C. Gaither Junior Fellow in Carnegie’s South Asia Program. We also wanted to turn the tables on Milan to ask him about his recent trip to Delhi—his first in the COVID-era. We talk about India’s ongoing heat wave, the political mood in the country, and the fractures in Indian federalism.

1. Caroline Duckworth, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav, “Indo-Australian Voters and the 2022 General Election,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 18, 2022.
2. Jonathan Kay, “A Heat Wave Has Pushed India’s Dysfunctional Power System Into a Crisis,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 12, 2022.

Sri Lanka has been the site of dramatic economic and political upheaval over the past several weeks as years of economic mismanagement have resulted in rampant inflation, shortages of essential commodities, and the country’s first sovereign default in the post-independence era. 

The island’s dire economic conditions have spurred angry, and sometimes violent, protests which resulted in the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and continued calls for the resignation of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the country’s president and the prime minister’s brother.

To discuss the economic and political causes and consequences of this crisis, Milan is joined on the show this week by political economist Ahilan Kadirgamar. Ahilan is Senior Lecturer at the University of Jaffna and one of Sri Lanka’s leading political economists. 

Ahilan and Milan discuss the tense situation on the ground, the economic roots of the current crisis, and the prospects for a return to wide-scale violence. Plus, the two discuss India’s role in extending an economic lifeline to Sri Lanka and whether the island nation can put a decades-old legacy of ethnic strife behind it.

1. “Rethinking Sri Lanka’s economic crisis,” Interview with Ahilan Kadirgamar, Himal South Asian, February 28, 2022.
2. Ahilan Kadirgamar, “Polarization, Civil War, and Persistent Majoritarianism in Sri Lanka,” in Thomas Carothers and Andrew O’Donohue, eds., Political Polarization in South and Southeast Asia: Old Divisions, New Dangers (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2020).
3. Ahilan Kadirgamar, "Sri Lanka stares at bankruptcy or redemption," The Hindu, April 16, 2022.
4. Ahilan Kadirgamar. "The Political Economy of the Crisis in Sri Lanka," Economic & Political Weekly, April 30, 2022.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently completed a three-country, whirlwind tour of Europe. The trip began in Germany, where Modi met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, then continued with a stop in Denmark, where he participated in the India-Nordic Summit, and wrapped up in Paris, where he sat down with newly reelected French President Emmanuel Macron.

To discuss Modi’s Europe visit and its lasting implications, Milan is joined on the show this week by Garima Mohan. Garima is a senior fellow in the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund based in Berlin. Her research focuses on Europe-India ties, EU foreign policy in Asia, and security in the Indo-Pacific.

Milan and Garima discuss how Europe sees India’s evolving stance on Russia-Ukraine, India’s ambitious (and nuanced) European outreach, and the trajectory of defense collaboration. Plus, the two discuss how Europe and India are working together on cross-cutting issues from climate to trade and technology.

Episode notes:

1. Nayanima Basu, “Modi’s trip shows India & EU can grow closer despite differences on Russia’s Ukraine invasion,” ThePrint, May 6, 2022.
2. Garima Mohan and Thorsten Benner, “Look More at India!” Der Spiegel, May 2, 2022.
3. Sreemoy Talukdar, “An assessment of EU-India ties as Modi visits Europe: Sheer political will driving strategic convergence beyond differences,” Firstpost, May 4, 2022.

On April 11, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from office, having suffered defeat in a dramatic no confidence vote in the national assembly. Soon after, Shehbaz Sharif—former chief minister of Punjab and brother of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif—was sworn into office as his replacement, capping a dizzying few weeks of political intrigue. 

To make sense of the latest developments in Pakistan, including what they mean for India, this week Milan is joined on the show by Aqil Shah. Aqil is the Wick Cary associate professor in the Department of International and Area Studies at the University of Oklahoma and a visiting scholar in the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Aqil is the author of The Army and Democracy: Military Politics in Pakistan, one of the best guides to civil-military relations in Pakistan. 

Milan and Aqil discuss Imran Khan’s dramatic fall from grace, the challenges facing the new government, and the country’s complicated civil-military power balance. Plus, they talk about what these developments mean for India and Pakistan’s frosty bilateral relationship.

1. Aqil Shah, “The Shambolic End of Imran Khan,” Foreign Affairs, April 15, 2022.
2. Aqil Shah, “Pakistan’s ‘Moderate Taliban’ Strategy Won’t Hold Up—For Anyone,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 30, 2021.
3. Aqil Shah, “Pakistan: Voting Under Military Tutelage,” Journal of Democracy 30, no. 1 (2019): 128-142. 

Two weeks ago, the foreign and defense ministers of the United States and India met in Washington for the fourth annual U.S.-India “2+2” Dialogue. The annual meeting has become an important focal point in the growing partnership between the United States and India, and this year’s edition received even more scrutiny than usual. 

For one, it featured a high-level virtual meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Joe Biden. But it also took place against the backdrop of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and tensions in the bilateral relationship over how that conflict should be handled.

To discuss the key takeaways from the 2+2, Milan is joined on the show this week by Joshua White. Josh is associate professor of the practice of South Asia studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington and a nonresident fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. Josh also has extensive experience working in the U.S. government, having done stints at both the National Security Council and the Pentagon. 

Milan and Josh discuss the trajectory of U.S.-India ties under the Biden administration, the big takeaways from the 2+2, and how the two sides are dealing with the thorny issue of Russia-Ukraine. Plus, Josh gives listeners a behind-the-scenes look at putting together a high-level ministerial summit.

1. Joshua T. White, After the foundational agreements: An agenda for US-India defense and security cooperation(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2021)
2. Joshua T. White, “Nonstate threats in the Taliban’s Afghanistan,” February 1, 2022, Brookings Institution, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/01/nonstate-threats-in-the-talibans-afghanistan/
3. Ashley J. Tellis, “‘What Is in Our Interest’: India and the Ukraine War,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 25, 2022.

One of the most vexed questions in development studies is why the poor often receive such poor government services. The development literature is littered with hundreds—if not thousands—of examples of elite capture, weak state capacity, corruption, and subversion. 

But a focus on the failures obscures the fact that, every once in a while, the state does get it right and the top-down and the bottom-up meet in a place that produces positive benefits for ordinary citizens.

How exactly this happens is the subject of a new book by Georgetown University professor Rajesh Veeraraghavan, Patching Development: Information Politics and Social Change in India. Milan and Rajesh discuss how bureaucrats and civil society forged an unlikely partnership in the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh to implement the world’s largest workfare program at scale. Plus, the two talk about the the role of technology in government, the political economy of India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), and the limits of transparency. 

1. “Information Politics and Social Change,” Ideas of India (podcast) with Shruti Rajagopalan and Rajesh Veeraraghavan, March 3, 2022.
2. Philip Keefer and Stuti Khemani, “Why Do the Poor Receive Poor Services?” Economic and Political Weekly 39, no. 9 (2004): 935-943.
3. Diego Maiorano, “The Politics of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act in Andhra Pradesh,” World Development 58 (2014): 95-105.

Over the past two months, the southern Indian state of Karnataka has been the site of significant religious tensions as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government—and Hindu nationalist organizations associated with it—have advanced policies and issued statements that many believe have explicitly targeted Muslims in the state. 

From a ban on hijabs in school to calls for boycotting Muslim businesses, we are seeing sharpening religious divisions in the state that is home to India’s biggest technology hub, Bangalore.

To make sense of the latest developments in the state, Milan is joined on the show this week by Sugata Srinivasaraju, a respected political journalist and author who has been covering political developments in Karnataka for decades. Sugata is the author of several books, including Furrows in a Field: The Unexplored Life of H.D. Deve Gowda.

Sugata and Milan discuss the BJP’s rise to prominence in Karnataka—its lone southern stronghold—and the spate of recent controversial developments, from the ban on hijabs in school to calls for boycotting establishments serving halal food. Plus, the two discuss the upcoming 2023 assembly elections, the BJP’s dilemma, and the fractures within the political opposition.

1. Sugata Srinivasaraju, “Balancing Opinion And Diverting Attention,” New Indian Express, April 7, 2022.
2. Soutik Biswas, “Bangalore: How polarisation is dividing India's Silicon Valley,” BBC, April 7, 2022.
3. Pooja Prasanna, “Karnataka’s Hindutva hate politics: Blame it on a weak CM and an edgy Opposition,” The News Minute, April 6, 2022.

When Ideas Matter: Democracy and Corruption in India is the title of a new book by the author Bilal Baloch. The book provides a framework for understanding how governments respond to credibility crises. 

We all know that governments act in their own interests—but what are those interests? How are they defined? And where do they come from? 

These are the questions that Bilal explores in his new book, through an examination of two seminal crises in Indian history: Indira Gandhi’s response to the JP movement in the mid-1970s and the UPA government’s reaction to the India Against Corruption movement a decade ago.

Milan and Bilal discuss the role ideas play in shaping government policy during acute crises, the relevance of ideas in interpreting India’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the factional divisions that exist within the Modi government. Plus, the two discuss Bilal’s new career as a tech start-up entrepreneur.

1. Christine Hall, “GlobalWonks relaunches as Enquire AI following $5.5M round,” TechCrunch, December 15, 2021.
2. Bilal Baloch, “10 years later, assessing UPA’s response to IAC,” Hindustan Times, December 11, 2021.
3. Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav, “Corruption in India: Bridging Research
4. Evidence and Policy Options,” India Policy Forum 11: 193-276.