Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has cautioned that interest rates are likely to rise higher than central bank policymakers had expected. Citing data showing that inflation has reversed the deceleration it showed in late 2022, Powell warned of tighter monetary policy ahead to slow a growing economy. His remarks imply that the peak, or terminal, level of the federal funds rate is likely to be higher than the previous indication from the Fed officials, and also that the switch last month to a smaller quarter-percentage point increase could be short-lived if inflation data continues to run hot.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss an announcement from automaker Rivian indicating a drop in its cash position. Rivian had cash and cash equivalents of $12.1 billion on hand at the end of December, down from $13.8 billion at the end of the third quarter and $15.5 billion as of June 30.

Chris and Saied look at news that investors have dumped shares of SVB Financial Group and a collection of other U.S. banks after the lender said it lost nearly $2 billion selling assets following a larger-than-expected decline in deposits.

They also offer some thoughts on data from ADP, indicating that private payrolls increased by 242,000 in February, versus the estimate for 205,000 and above the 119,000 in January.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Results of the most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report.
• The voluntary liquidation of Silvergate Bank.
• Demystifying concepts such as 'index plus margin' and a 'run on the bank.'
• Why there is much more at play in banking than just finance.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Dow closes 570 points lower, turns negative for 2023 as Powell ignites higher rate fears: Live updates" (article from CNBC)

"Fed's Powell again rejects idea of raising inflation target" (article from Reuters)

"Rivian Stuns Investors With Very Bad News" (article from The Street)

"US unemployment is falling even as the economy slows. What the heck is going on?" (article from MarketWatch)

"Fed Chair Powell says interest rates are ‘likely to be higher’ than previously anticipated" (article from CNBC)

"Job openings declined in January but still far outnumber available workers" (article from CNBC)

"Private payrolls rose by 242,000 in February, better than expected, ADP says" (article from CNBC)

"Banks Lose Billions in Value After Tech Lender SVB Stumbles" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"System Open Market Account Holdings of Domestic Securities" (article from The New York Fed)

"Slack is introducing AI assistant that can write messages for you" (article from Morning Brew)