Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Jason Perz on the podcast for the first time, and we discussed the different trends going on in the financial markets. We talked about the commodities complex and which areas he finds most appealing right now, along with the reasons to avoid large cap tech and bonds as we move through this inflationary regime. It was a fun conversation and I’ll definitely be having him back on to discuss how these trends have developed over time. You can find him on Twitter, Substack, along with his YouTube.

Podcast Summary

* The changing investment environment and what it means for stocks, bonds, and commodities.

* The concentration in megacap tech stocks, and how it mirrors past cycles.

* How rising energy prices create issues for the broader equity market, and why he thinks the trend for the sector is just getting started.

* The different things to look for when it comes to news failures and mean reversion, and how that feeds into a setup for a trade.

* How sector equities moving ahead of a commodity signify risk on for that sector.

* The gold to oil ratio and why he thinks it will rubber band back to something closer to a historical relative valuation.

* Why the trend in the precious metals complex has time to run, and why we could see the move in the miners continue from here.

* Copper being one of the biggest opportunities right now, and why he prefers to get exposure through the major ETFs.

* Why nickel has the most upside out of all the industrial metals, and why he avoids the LME.

* His exposure in the uranium space, and why his current exposure is in the juniors.

* Agricultural commodities being the next space to move.

* Book Recommendation: The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand.

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Yesterday I had Giacomo Prandelli on my podcast for the first time. He has an interesting vantage point as a commodities trader in Switzerland when it comes to geopolitics and commodities markets. We talked about the geopolitical chessboard and the tensions between the US, Europe, China, and Russia. We also got into the commodities complex and talked about where he sees opportunities and why it’s important to look at the global picture for each commodity. You can find him on Substack, Linkedin, and Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The setup for the geopolitical chessboard, and the increasing tensions between the US, Europe, China, and Russia.

* Why he doesn’t think Europe will prioritize the production capabilities for oil, gas, and other commodities, and the fragility of European supply chains.

* Why copper and oil are top of mind for him right now.

* How he occasionally expresses a view on a certain commodity with directional exposure.

* Why it’s important to look at the global picture for the different commodities.

* Why he pays attention to shipping, and why he thinks the rising rates in certain subsectors is more due to geopolitical factors than rising demand.

* His view on the precious metals complex.

* Opportunities in smaller commodities that are off the radar, including nickel and rare earths.

* Book Recommendations: The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli and The World For Sale by Javier Blas and Jack Farchy.

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Yesterday I had Tommy Lee on the podcast to talk about Transocean’s $RIG acquisition of Valaris $VAL . For anyone interested in energy, Tommy is an expert on the deepwater subsector of offshore oil services, and we dove into the transaction, how it deleverages RIG’s balance sheet, and the potential synergies between the two fleets. We also talked about other subsectors of offshore oil services, but our conversation was a good look at the transaction and where the sector is headed over the next several years. You can find Tommy on Twitter, but he’s also working on a service over at Deepwater Insight that he is close to launching. He also has his Substack that is definitely worth a follow. The podcast will be for paid subscribers for now, but it will be available to everyone on Sunday morning.

Podcast Summary

* How this transaction deleverages the balance sheet for Transocean, and accelerates the potential for capital returns.

* Why he doesn’t think the transaction will lead to problems with antitrust issues.

* The synergies between the two fleets, and why the estimated cost savings might be a little high.

* How the jackup fleet fits into the new company, and why they might look to sell some or all of the fleet in the future.

* The view on day rates, new builds, future scrapping, and the potential for more consolidation in the future.

* The jackup market and what it means for Borr, and some color on what is going on in Saudi Arabia and Mexico.

* OSVs, Tidewater, and expectation for M&A in that sector.

* Seismic, subsea equipment manufacturing, and other overlooked opportunities in and around the offshore oil services sector.

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Yesterday I had Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports on the podcast for the first time. He’s an independent pollster and a very entertaining follow on Twitter. We talked about his expectations for the midterm elections, geopolitics, and how the generational divide is going to be one of the most important topics for determining the future of the US over the next decade. If you’re not following his work, you should be, and you can also find him on YouTube.

Podcast Summary

* His thoughts on the midterms, why he thinks it will be ugly for the Republicans.

* The Republicans as the party of beautiful losers.

* The generational divide and the different perception of the economy, and how that will play a big role in politics over the next decade.

* How the US is in a cold civil war right now, and the impact of gerrymandering on the upcoming elections.

* America’s view on deportations and immigrations, why the Trump administration hasn’t done enough, and how they could use laws on the books to go after employers

* Cultural enshittification, the offshoring and his experience in the tech industry with H-1B visas, and how H-1Bs are a logic trap.

* How the feminization of our culture has impacted the US, and what it might take to return to a more concrete hierarchical culture.

* The difference between doing things that look good and doing things that are right.

* Why he thinks the US and the rest of the world is gearing up for war.

* Why he thinks Vance is sitting in a good position for a Presidential run 2028.

* Book Recommendation: Stolen Elections by Ralph Pezzullo

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I hope everyone is enjoying the long weekend, and I wanted to do a quick update on all of the stuff going on recently, from the talk about Greenland and Canada to the upcoming World Economic Forum and Trump’s speech set for Wednesday. It has been everything, everywhere, all at once on the geopolitical stage so far in 2026, and it’s worth keeping an eye on as this year develops. I also talked about news updates from several companies that I own, along with some talk on silver and the disconnect for the miners. For anyone that prefers to read instead of watching the video, the transcript should be a quicker way to roll through the updates. I also included a link to the podcast I mentioned in the video below.

Whirly Bard Interview on Contrarian Codex (for anyone interested in LibertyStream)

The first half is on LibertyStream (LIB.V), and the second half is on Comstock $LODE (no position).

Yesterday I had E.M. Burlingame on the podcast to talk about the fast start to 2026 as far as geopolitics and financial markets. We touched on everything from Venezuela, to the Middle East and China, as well as the current political situation in the US. We also got into some of the changes happening in financial markets, and what we could see long-term as far as a complete change in the financial system. You can find E.M.’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* Recent events in Venezuela, what comes after Maduro, and how it impacts other parts of the world.

* Why he thinks Cuba will change on its own, and the potential for the US to buy Greenland.

* How certain factions think that Europe is planning for war against the US through Canada, and how Alberta and a potential secession factor in.

* Why he’s keeping an eye on Iran and Israel and the Middle East, and the current state of Iran, and the ongoing regime change efforts.

* Recent events in Ukraine, the use of another Oreshnik missile, and why a chain of geopolitical events can happen in bursts before pausing for a bit of a reset.

* What to watch for at next week’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos.

* The power struggle going on in China, and why they are likely to be the center of gravity in that region of the world moving forward.

* China’s economic system of political capitalism and how the US used to have a similar system before 1971.

* What the next year holds for the US, and why deportations are a twenty to thirty year problem.

* The setup for the midterms this year, and the multiple dimensions of the current political situation.

* Why it’s important to focus on the local level, and the importance of the next generation of young men.

* The tremors that are becoming more obvious in the financial system, and why the City of London’s ability to price metals (not just gold and silver) is breaking.

* Why all metals will probably continue to increase in price, and why he thinks they will try to prop up the broad equity market.

* How stablecoins could be used to link the debt market to the rest of the economy.

* Why we could see a return to the gold standard in a tokenized system, but why we are probably going to try a tokenized form of cryptocurrency first.

* Book Recommendation: The Financialist Kill Chain by E.M. Burlingame.

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On Friday, I had Sara (TripleS Special Situations) and Albert Collette on the podcast to discuss the tin market, why it presents an interesting opportunity, and why First Tin is an attractive way to play that opportunity for investors. Sara has experience in the commodities space as an operator and investor in opportunities that are off the beaten path, and Albert is a former board member of the company. Both of them own a decent sized stake in the company, and they lay out a compelling case for the potential upside over the next couple years for the company. If they can get permitting and financing for the Taronga asset, today’s share price is going to look like a bargain.

Podcast Summary

* A brief history of the tin market, how it was regulated by the International Tin Council, and how today’s setup was decades in the making.

* The supply and demand outlook for tin, and why it points to higher prices for the metal moving forward.

* Several of the uses for tin, and how there is a structural tailwind for tin demand moving forward.

* A high level overview of First Tin and their assets.

* Metals X as a large shareholder of First Tin, along with the video Sara mentioned below.

* The Taronga asset, what the open pit will look like, and the potential to expand the resource significantly.

* The dilution that has happened over the last couple years, and why they both think that the worst of the dilution is behind us.

* The expected timeline for the permitting process (first half of 2026 is their expectation), and how EXIM financing will likely follow after that.

* Why Metals X could look to acquire First Tin in that window between permitting and financing.

* The European assets of the company, and some background on the tin and other critical minerals at Tellerhäuser in Germany.

* How Tellerhäuser was discovered during Soviet occupation, and the historical drill results they have from that era, which would have been hundreds of millions in today’s money.

* The resource nationalism when it comes to the supply chains for different commodities.

* The potential upside for investors if First Tin can advance the Taronga project through permitting and financing.

Disclaimer

I own shares of First Tin (1SN on the London Stock Exchange). You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.

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I wanted to do a video as a follow up to my post yesterday and talk about recent events in Venezuela, how it might impact different energy subsectors, with a focus on $OIH and $SLB for example. I also took a look at some long term ratio charts for different assets and commodities of interest. I have included links below for stuff I talked about in the video, but it’s worth a watch for investors looking at where money might continue to flow in 2026.

Silver: A Broken Market Before a “Reset”? by Cyrille Jubert

Indonesia to cut mining output quotas to support prices, minister says. -Reuters

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Yesterday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to discuss everything going on precious metals and his outlook for the sector in 2026. We talked about the recent move in silver, some of the current events, and why he’s still bullish. We also talked about gold leading the whole commodities complex, platinum flying under the radar, but breaking out to its highest level since 2011, and everything else that he is watching as 2025 draws to a close. You can find Vince’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The physical shortage of silver in London, how they are caught in a rolling squeeze, and the backwardated market for physical silver.

* Silver as a critical mineral, China restricting silver exports, and other shifts in the supply chain for silver.

* Other recent events with silver, including the Black Friday blackout and margin raises.

* Why he is sustainably bullish on silver for the next several years, his expectations for triple digit silver in that timeframe, and how silver becomes more precious as gold goes higher in price.

* How the physical market for silver is starting to assert dominance over the paper market.

* The tug of war between silver as an industrial metal vs. precious metal, and the tug of war between industrial demand for silver and investment demand.

* Increased investment demand for gold and silver miners over the next 12 months, and why we could see the miners catch up when gold and silver prices consolidate.

* The valuation gap between streamers and royalty plays in precious metals vs. the miners.

* Why he wants to look at gold miners that are looking to add copper exposure.

* His outlook for gold in 2026, why we could see a 10-20% selloff, and why he expects gold to continue to drag the commodities complex higher.

* Platinum and palladium as a pair, why platinum still flying under the radar, and how platinum could be ripe for a short squeeze and/or a sustained rally.

* Why silver and other commodities are going to go up relative to gold, and why commodities are going to trade at their fundamental natural ratios relative to gold in coming years.

* How he looks at ratio charts of different assets, comparing the S&P to gold, silver, and miners.

* Gold vs. silver vs. copper, and other ratios he looks at as a signpost to compare where different assets are, and how they can signal a regime change.

* The high level view on copper, and why he sees a potential catalyst for a spike in the copper price.

* Why oil is going to be the last part of the commodities complex to wake up, and why he’s paying attention to vertically integrated oil producers looking ahead to 2026.

* The Fed becoming an arm of the Treasury.

* Other things that he’s paying attention to for 2026, including inflation, rates, yield curve control and QE, as well as other asset classes.

* Book Recommendations: Absolute Batman & The Tower Of Basel by Adam LeBor.

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Yesterday, I had PurpleDrinkCapital back on the podcast for an update on what he is seeing in markets. We talked about the recent Fed meeting and broader markets, and we also bounced around the different commodity sectors. He explained what he looks for in the charts and how it impacts his strategy, but it was a great conversation for a broad look at financial markets as we head into 2026. For anyone listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, we were looking at charts a fair bit, so you might want to switch over to Substack or YouTube. You can find his Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The recent Fed meeting, and how it sets up the market from here.

* Signs of life in the small caps $IWM and the Dow Jones Transportation Index.

* Skepticism around AI CAPEX and the tech sector.

* Why he focuses on price action, market cycles, and why he thinks the broader market should be fine until inflation rears its ugly head.

* The whole periodic table lighting up as we get rate cuts with relatively stubborn inflation.

* What he expects for gold and silver in 2026.

* Why he thinks copper will really kick into gear when China kicks into gear.

* Why he focuses on bellwethers for different sectors, like Newmont $NEM for gold, Freeport $FCX for copper, and Exxon Mobil $XOM for oil and gas.

* What his process looks like, and why focuses on charts as a way to distill where buyers and sellers are willing to step in for any security.

* Natural gas, his career experience in energy, and why he hates the sector with volatility and its exposure to weather.

* Uranium, the Trump Administration involvement in the sector, and why he likes the setup for the next couple years.

* How oil and gas is out of favor, why he likes the setup for back half of 2026, and why he pays more attention to Exxon breaking out than the oil price.

* Podcast Recommendation: The Athletic Football Show.

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