Kontrarian Korner

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I wanted to do a video this week and get into some of the things that are looking interesting as we look ahead to 2026. I talked about a lot of the different commodities, sector ETFs (including South America), and other commodities that I have started to look at, including tin and lithium. Also, I am having Ross Jennings on the podcast tomorrow to talk Millennial Potash and hopefully dig even deeper, so if you have questions or topics that you want to hear about, feel free to leave a comment or send a message. I think it’s going to be interesting for anyone on the fence on that one.

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Yesterday I had Melody Wright on the podcast to talk about all things real estate. We got into the changing demographic trends, institutional and foreign ownership of real estate, and the different narratives around equities, AI spending, and real estate. We also talked about the privatization of Fannie Mae and homebuilder sector, among other things. For anyone interested in real estate, Melody is a must follow, and you can find her Substack below, or on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The problems with the 50 year mortgage idea.

* Demographic trends that could have a huge impact on residential real estate, from generational turnover to immigration and potential remigration.

* The crosscurrents between property taxes, insurance costs, and affordability.

* Investor ownership and foreign ownership of residential real estate, and the problems with government interfering with the real estate market by subsidizing demand.

* The generational divide topic when it comes to real estate, and how it gets amplified by social media.

* Why she doesn’t think Fannie Mae will be privatized, and the issues from the real estate market that could have an impact.

* The issues with the homebuilders and the seller concessions they have been making to move inventory.

* Her view on equities, the AI spending bubble, and how it is connected to real estate.

* The narratives changing on real estate, AI, equities, and how markets have started to price in narrative changes faster.

* Why she thinks we will return to historical norms for real estate prices relative to median income, and the price declines that have to happen to bring that back inline.

* How some of the institutions are net sellers of residential real estate.

* Rental prices, the overbuilding of multifamily apartments, and concessions on rent.

* Where money could flow over the next couple years.

* Her thoughts on crypto, and the issues there.

* Book Recommendations: The Price Of Time by Ed Chancellor, Bubble In The Sun by Christopher Knowlton & The Swamp Peddlers by Jason Vuic.

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On Friday I had first time guest Scott Osheroff on the podcast. He runs Yurta Capital and is focused on overlooked opportunities in frontier markets and commodities. We talked about his experience traveling and investing all over the world, and why he thinks we will see a capital rotation to markets outside of the US. We also bounced around different commodities sectors, and which ones he finds appealing today. You can find him on Twitter and on Telegram.

Podcast Summary

* His experience in Asia, Eastern Europe, and looking at opportunities in overlooked areas of the market.

* Why we in the early stages of a multi-year reallocation to the rest of the world, and why it doesn’t take much money to move markets outside of the US.

* Getting more conservative and the potential for a market correction where correlations go to one.

* The torque available in offshore oil services, and the outlook for the next several years.

* Precious metals, and how investors all seem to focus on the same handful of ideas.

* Avoiding the herd mentality when it comes to commodities.

* Iron ore, coal, natural gas, and why the traditional hydrocarbons companies are near the top of his list right now.

* The multi-speed global economy, and how different major economies and markets have different policies.

* Chemicals, and why he’s paying attention to Chinese policy for that sector.

* Agricultural companies, the importance of cheap natural gas for the sector, and why he thinks the gap between US natural gas prices and European prices will converge.

* Why he thinks the dollar is in the early stages of a secular decline, and the potential for capital rotation.

* Book Recommendations: Burmese Days by George Orwell, How Asia Works by Joe Studwell & Asian Godfathers by Joe Studwell.

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Yesterday I had Doug Casey on the podcast, and we got into a bunch of different topics across the commodities space and financial markets. We talked about the bubble forming in the tech sector with the AI capex boom, the future of the US, and other things to keep an eye on for the next several years. You can find Doug at The International Man, The Crisis Investing Substack, and the YouTube channel, Doug Casey’s Take. You can also find the new book that he released recently with Matt and Maxim Smith, The Preparation, which provides an alternative experience to college. It’s a book I wish I had when I was in high school.

Podcast Summary

* The last bull market for gold as it becomes a central part of the financial system again.

* Silver and platinum as industrial metals, and why he’s bullish on those metals as well.

* The bull case for energy, including uranium and coal.

* The future of the US and the breakdown of our political system.

* The AI capex boom, how it could change society, and how a lot of the technological developments are net negatives on society.

* The different geopolitical brushfires around the world, from the Middle East, to Eastern Europe, Venezuela, and China.

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.com

I led off with a quick rant on Sable and the equity raise last week and the 10-Q, but I got into a couple things that I covered in my thread the other day. After that I got into commodities, money rotating into certain sectors, and a couple trades I’m looking at.

Energy, OIH & SLB

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After the recent talk of 50 year mortgages over the weekend, I wanted to share my thoughts on the topic and rant a little bit. I touched on a couple things there, and why it’s a bad idea that would only make the affordability issue worse in the long run. It sounds like the government shutdown might be coming to an end here soon, and there has also been talk of a so-called tariff dividend of $2,000. We will see if anything comes of it, but that would just be adding fuel to the inflationary fire. I also spent some time looking at several individual names, and where I might be looking at trades on those.

Yesterday Robert from Infranomics joined me on the podcast to talk about interest rates, financial plumbing, issues facing the US, and how to fix them. We got into the financialization of the economy, distortions in financial markets, and how inflation has eaten away at real wages and purchasing power. You can find Robert on Twitter and on YouTube, and for anyone who wants to dig into financial plumbing, he’s a must follow.

Podcast Summary

* SOFR spreads, liquidity issues, and what is going on in the repo markets.

* His view on interest rates, how the US stacks up with Europe, and why he thinks there will be a debt crisis in France and the UK.

* Wealth inequality being worse than it was in the Gilded Age, and the hyperfinancialization of the US economy.

* Why he expects higher levels of inflation over the next decade, and why the dollar will be weak against gold and other currencies moving forward.

* Wages, Social Security and Medicare, and Home Equity as a percent of GDP.

* Hourly wages in gold terms, the loss of purchasing power over the last couple decades, and the increase in deaths of despair.

* Potential fixes for the situation the US is in, including stricter immigration policy (legal and illegal), coordinating fiscal and monetary policy to compete with China, reindustrializing the economy, and ending the system that has prioritized capital over labor for the last 50 years.

* Book Recommendation: Ages of Discord by Peter Turchin.

Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.com

This will be a bit of a different format, but it’s something that I’m thinking about doing on a weekly basis. I kept it short and sweet this week, but I wanted to talk briefly about why I chose to sell puts on the newest holding instead of buying shares outright. I think it’s worth a look with the elevated implied volatility if you’re fine owning the stock.

Yesterday I had Rudy Havenstein back on the podcast to discuss what is going on in the world, markets, and of course, we also talked about inflation. He’s full of a bunch of interesting information, anecdotes, and stories on financial markets, politics, and current events. Listeners will learn a thing or two and be entertained along the way, but for anyone interested in the intersection of markets, politics, inflation, and the Federal Reserve, this one’s for you. You can find Rudy’s Substack below, and he is one of the most entertaining follows on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* Inflation, and the difference between cost levels and the rate of change.

* Why there is nothing capitalist about the Federal Reserve, and how what happened in 2008 and 2020 led us to where we are today.

* The political divide in the country, and why he criticizes both sides.

* Why he expects we will see more politicians like Mamdani.

* The religious void in the culture that people are looking to fill, and the campaign to destroy the nuclear family.

* Why he is a free speech absolutist.

* Private credit, real estate, and the problems with reaching for yield.

* Foreign influence over US politics, and how most Americans are anti-war.

* Why he doesn’t see a lot of opportunities in the market today.

* Why the market won’t go back to allocating capital based on valuations and fundamentals until you put a leash on The Fed and get rid of the notion of “Too Big To Fail.”

* Book Recommendation: Weird Scenes Inside The Canyon by David McGowan.

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Yesterday I had Maxim Benjamin Smith on the podcast to give us the firsthand account he has had over the last couple years as the test subject for The Preparation. We talked about some of his best and worst experiences from his travels, what he will be doing next, and how it has shaped his view of the world. We also talked about where he thinks the world is headed over the next couple decades, and why young men are becoming more right wing. It was a little different from my typical podcast, but if you happen to have boys in middle school or high school and are open minded about alternatives to college, you will enjoy this one.

Podcast Summary

* The story behind developing The Preparation.

* Some of the best experiences he has had, from sailing in the Falkland Islands to becoming an EMT and fighting fires.

* His experience working for a junior exploration company in Nevada.

* How his experiences have shaped his worldview.

* Where he sees the US and the world heading over the next couple decades.

* Why young men are becoming more right wing.

* The cultural issues facing the West and societal decay.

* Book Recommendation: Education of a Wandering Man by Louis L’Amour.

Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe