Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had my friend, Dan Herrin, on the podcast. He’s a longtime private investigator, one of the best storytellers I have met, and has an interesting lens on financial markets. I was able to get a couple stories from his career (he’s got a ton), as well as some anecdotes from his current roadtrip. We also talked about his view on precious metals, energy, and why he’s starting to get optimistic about the path of things here in the US. It was a little bit different conversation from my typical podcast, but I’ll definitely have him back on in the future to get more stories out of him. You can find on Twitter, where he’s a very entertaining follow.

Podcast Summary

* A couple stories from his time as a private investigator, and several anecdotes from his current roadtrip, and how they tie into financial markets.

* His view on precious metals, why he thinks it might be different this time, and how he’s playing it.

* Why he’s keeping an eye on oil for 2026, why he thinks things get worse before they get better, and the next leg of his road trip taking him to the Bakken.

* The Fourth Turning, the state of the US, and why he’s starting to get optimistic from his interactions with younger generations.

* The shift from B.C. (Before COVID) to A.C. (After COVID), and how large narratives have been shifting in recent years.

* Book Recommendation: The Road Less Traveled by M. Scott Peck.

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Yesterday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to talk about everything going on the world of markets, current events, and we even got into a couple of our favorite rabbit holes. He doesn’t pull any punches and as always, he is very entertaining. Our conversation will have something for everyone, and if you want to find Dave, you can find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* What he’s seeing in markets, and where he’s actually bullish (precious metals and platinum in particular).

* How the current situation is different from past euphorias, and why he calls it a complacency bubble.

* The problems that we will see in private equity and private credit.

* Passive investment and markets no longer being a price discovery mechanism.

* His thoughts on Charlie Kirk, and why he has questions around the official story.

* The situation in Ukraine, and why it might continue to drag on longer than we expected.

* Israel, the Middle East, and the USS Liberty.

* The AI race with China, the circular AI economy, and the Ponzi feel to stablecoins.

* The problem with the government taking equity stakes in companies.

* Book Recommendation: The Wisdom Of Crowds by James Surowiecki & The Great Courses Series.

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On Monday (before I got sidetracked over the last couple days), I had Matt Smith @ Crisis Investing on the podcast for an interesting conversation. We discussed their new book, The Preparation, which he wrote with his son, Maxim Smith, and Doug Casey. It will be very interesting for anyone that has a son that is approaching college, and it’s a book I wish I had 15 years ago. We also got into financial markets, commodities, current events, geopolitics, and how it all connects as we head into the Fourth Turning.

Podcast Summary

* The story behind The Preparation, and why it is worth considering as an alternative to college.

* The Patron-Client relationship, the Generational Divide, and the importance of having relationships with older and younger generations.

* Where the US is headed, and why we are headed for a monetary reset.

* The impact of AI, and how that will have an impact on society and the job market.

* The Fourth Turning and the potential for civil conflict in the US.

* His view on bitcoin, cryptocurrency, and how some of the recent changes around bitcoin make him uncomfortable.

* Why long-term sovereign debt is a toxic asset class.

* Gold moving to the center of the financial system, and why Doug Casey thinks this will be the last gold bull market.

* How the reshuffling of the global trade system has an impact on agricultural commodities.

* How passive investing has created distortions in the market, and why it’s not a price discovery mechanism anymore.

* Book Recommendation: The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert Gordon.

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Yesterday I had Roberto Rios (aka The Peruvian Bull) on the podcast for an interesting conversation on the 30,000 foot view of the macro world. We talked about the Fed and the Treasury, precious metals, real estate, crypto, and everything in between. If you’re interested in the big picture for different assets in the world of currency debasement, you will enjoy this one. You can find him on Twitter and YouTube, as well as his Substack below.

Podcast Summary

* What’s going on with the Fed, stealth QE, and the lack of demand for long duration bonds.

* How crypto and stablecoins have impacted the Treasury market.

* His view on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, and how gold front runs quantitative easing.

* How the real estate being unaffordable feeds into the Generational Divide, and what the next several years hold for residential real estate.

* Why large institutions shouldn’t be allowed to own single family homes.

* How demographics and immigration impact the real estate market.

* How the structure of the monetary system, liquidity, and debasement drive asset price inflation in the equity market.

* His view on Bitcoin, and how it is different from other cryptos.

* Book Recommendations: The Storm Before The Storm by Mike Duncan, The Mr. X Interviews by Luke Gromen & The Hidden Hand Of American Hegemony by David Spiro.

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Yesterday I had John Polomny on the podcast for a wide ranging conversation on markets and current events. We got into broad markets, opportunities in the commodities sector and international markets, and some of the political shifts on the horizon. If you’re interested in where markets and the world are probably headed over the next several years, you will enjoy this one. You can find John’s Substack below, and you can also find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* His view on broader markets, passive investing, and the overvaluation in the US.

* What he is seeing with precious metals, and why he has been trimming some positions.

* Why he has a contrarian view on the economy, and why he doesn’t think we are heading into a recession.

* How liquidity and sentiment move markets.

* The bullish contrarian view in energy and which subsectors he finds attractive.

* Why he sees higher oil prices down the line, and why he favors offshore oil services to onshore.

* Residential real estate being overvalued, and why he avoids it for the most part.

* Other undervalued opportunities in international markets.

* The major political shifts happening, and controlled opposition in the media.

* Why Europe is in a worse situation than the US.

* Book Recommendation: People Of The Lie by M. Scott Peck.

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Yesterday I had Rob Connors from The Crude Chronicles on the podcast. If you’re interested in the long term picture for the energy sector, his work is worth checking out below. We got into a bunch of different topics, from the peaking productivity rates in the US, the importance of development costs, and where he sees the floor for oil. One of the other big picture topics that is starting to get more attention is the capex boom in the tech sector, and he compares it to oil and gas capex. For anyone interested in energy, you might learn a thing or two from this podcast. You can also find Rob on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* His thoughts on OPEC, why today doesn’t feel like a price war, and why he thinks the floor for oil is in the high 50s to low 60s.

* Why development costs are a good predictor of oil prices over the long run.

* Why the geology is the most important driver of costs versus new factors like steel tariffs.

* Peaking well productivity rates in the US and why we are on the last leg for technology advancements and efficiency gains.

* The capex boom for the tech companies on AI spending, and capex for the energy sector.

* His view on natural gas over the next several years, and why we aren’t seeing a rise in development costs for natural gas.

* Why he likes the refiners, and which energy subsectors perform best in different parts of the cycle.

* Factors he is watching to see if we are heading into a recession.

* Book Recommendations: Apple In China by Patrick McGee, Together We Roared by Steve Williams & Lords Of Finance by Liaquat Ahmed & Trillion Dollar Triage by Nick Timiraos.

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Before I spent all of the last two days on the phone, I had Robert Smallbone of The Contrarian Capitalist Substack on the podcast. We talked about his view on what is going on in Europe and the U.K., why he left England and the importance of having a Plan B, and what he sees for commodities and broader financial markets in the future. You should check out his Substack below.

Podcast Summary

* European politics, the mysterious deaths of several AFD politicians, and the current state of the UK.

* The financial state of European governments and European bonds.

* His view on precious metals and why they are simplest way to protect wealth over the next several years.

* Why he is partial to silver over gold currently.

* What he thinks about energy, how devaluation will play a role for commodities, and his view on oil, natural gas, and uranium.

* Where he sees equity markets heading over the next several years.

* Why there will be a huge opportunity in bonds in the distant future, and why he views them as certificates of confiscation for now.

* The importance of having a Plan B and why he left Europe.

* Book Recommendation: The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth.

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Yesterday I had Luke Gromen on the podcast for the first time. It was a great conversation on a bunch of topics, from the Fourth Turning to where financial markets are likely headed. We covered oil, precious metals, Bitcoin, and the potential chain reaction we could see from AI. If you’re interested in any of those big picture topics, you will definitely have something to think about. For anyone that isn’t familiar with Luke, you can find him at Forest For The Trees and on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* His view on how the Fourth Turning and how things will play out for the US.

* How wealth inequality and elite overproduction will lead to rapid changes in our politics and culture.

* The crosscurrents between rates, wages, inflation, immigration, and reshoring the industrial base.

* Why long-term bonds have been, and will continue to be, certificates of confiscation.

* The potential centralization of Bitcoin, and why Gresham’s Law has made Bitcoin less common for transactions.

* Gold’s growing role in the financial system as a reserve asset.

* The China vs. US power struggle, and why it leads to a lower dollar relative to the yuan, and a higher gold price.

* Gold to oil, and why he thinks that ratio will continue the trend of the last 15 years.

* The potential to use gold in exchange for oil, with an example of how China might use gold to buy oil from Russia.

* How drilling activity in the US is tied to the manufacturing indices, and the increasing manufacturing intensity to produce a barrel of oil.

* His view on silver and platinum.

* The stock market as a key driver of US tax receipts.

* The AI capex ticking time bomb, the depreciation timeline for equipment, and why the hyperscalers might be too big to fail.

* The disruptions that AI will create with labor, what happens when AI models are no longer subsidized, and what could happen with energy costs.

* How the media environment could have an impact, and how social media has decentralized the narrative.

* Book Recommendations: End Times by Peter Turchin & Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed.

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Yesterday I had Will Tanner from The American Tribune on the podcast. We got into a bunch of different topics, from immigration to the Civil Rights Act and the return of family dynasties. We also talked about one of my favorite long term political topics, which is the change in our form of government to something closer to a monarchy. It was a very interesting conversation, and for anyone interested the long term future of the US and our government, and the potential for a Caesar figure, you will enjoy this one. You can find Will on Twitter, as well as on The American Tribune Substack.

Podcast Summary

* His big picture view on immigration, and why removing welfare programs and taxing remittances would likely lead to more self-deportations.

* The importance of shifting the Overton Window on immigration and other problems in the US that are fixable.

* The Generational Divide, and the split between the Right and the Left across the different generations.

* The 2028 and why the modern Left can’t backtrack on the insanity of the last decade.

* Why land prices and asset prices are unlikely to come down in the US.

* Sovereign wealth fund, inheritance taxes, and the different nuances of each.

* A return of family dynasties across the US.

* Civil Rights Act, freedom of association, and the importance of local politics.

* Why an aristocracy is likely to develop, and the differences between a monarchy and a Caesar figure coming to power.

* Space exploration as a potential new frontier.

* Book Recommendation: Gotham by Edwin G. Burrows & Mike Wallace.

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I originally had a podcast guest lined up for yesterday, but work roped him in, so he will be coming on next week. There wasn’t anything groundbreaking from Sable Offshore’s $SOC 10-Q, but there were a couple things worth mentioning in there. I also went into a couple other things with oil, and a couple pieces on broader markets that I found interesting.

Podcast Summary

* Thoughts on the 10-Q (nothing earth shattering), mainly that they have enough cash to get things started up without further dilution.

* Why I’m not worried about the 10 day waiting period that comes after OSFM signoff, and some of the nuances there.

* Short interest ticking up at the end of July.

* ZeroHedge: How Oil Production Might Help California Meet Its Environmental Goals

* Ranting on the recent IEA forecast.

* A quick update on Cenovus’ bid for MEG Energy.

* Jorge Arjona’s Thread on Oil (a good Twitter account to follow).

* Thoughts on what assumptions are baked into market valuations

* AI and the massive capex spend, and why I don’t think it will be that much different from previous spending booms.

* Tariffs and the restructuring of the economy, and why economists might need to revisit some of their assumptions.

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