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Recently, I have been learning about industry norms, legal discovery proceedings, and incentive structures related to companies building risky systems. I wanted to share some findings in this post because they may be important for the frontier AI community to understand well.
TL;DR
Documented communications of risks (especially by employees) make companies much more likely to be held liable in court when bad things happen. The resulting Duty to Due Diligence from Discoverable Documentation of Dangers (the 6D effect) can make companies much more cautious if even a single email is sent to them communicating a risk.
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J9eF4nA6wJW6hPueN/the-6d-effect-when-companies-take-risks-one-email-can-be
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I'm sure Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality taught me some of the obvious, overt things it set out to teach. Looking back on it a decade after I first read it however, what strikes me most strongly are often the brief, tossed off bits in the middle of the flow of a story.
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WJtq4DoyT9ovPyHjH/thinking-by-the-clock
Narrated for LessWrong by Perrin Walker.
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I.
Here's a recent conversation I had with a friend:
Me: "I wish I had more friends. You guys are great, but I only get to hang out with you like once or twice a week. It's painful being holed up in my house the entire rest of the time."Friend: "You know ${X}. You could talk to him."Me: "I haven't talked to ${X} since 2019."Friend: "Why does that matter? Just call him."Me: "What do you mean 'just call him'? I can't do that."Friend: "Yes you can"Me:
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2HawAteFsnyhfYpuD/you-can-just-spontaneously-call-people-you-haven-t-met-in
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How many years will pass before transformative AI is built? Three people who have thought about this question a lot are Ajeya Cotra from Open Philanthropy, Daniel Kokotajlo from OpenAI and Ege Erdil from Epoch. Despite each spending at least hundreds of hours investigating this question, they still still disagree substantially about the relevant timescales. For instance, here are their median timelines for one operationalization of transformative AI:
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines
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It’s fairly common for EA orgs to provide fiscal sponsorship to other EA orgs. Wait, no, that sentence is not quite right. The more accurate sentence is that there are very few EA organizations, in the legal sense; most of what you think of as orgs are projects that are legally hosted by a single org, and which governments therefore consider to be one legal entity.
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XvEJydHAHk6hjWQr5/ea-orgs-legal-structure-inhibits-risk-taking-and-information
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habryka
Ok, so we both had some feelings about the recent Conjecture post on "lots of people in AI Alignment are lying", and the associated marketing campaign and stuff.
I would appreciate some context in which I can think through that, and also to share info we have in the space that might help us figure out what's going on.
I expect this will pretty quickly cause us to end up on some broader questions about how to do advocacy, how much the current social network around AI Alignment should coordinate as a group, how to balance advocacy with research, etc.
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vFqa8DZCuhyrbSnyx/integrity-in-ai-governance-and-advocacy
Narrated for LessWrong by TYPE III AUDIO.
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