In this episode of Live Players, Samo Buja and Erik Torenberg discuss the pivotal role of hardware in the advancement of AI, the strategic importance of semiconductor manufacturing, and the intricate geopolitical dynamics between the US, China, and Taiwan.

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LINKS:
Bismarck Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ 

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X / TWITTER:
@samoburja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia

—
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
• The thesis is that hardware is crucial to winning the AI race because capital accumulation leads to more data gathering, which has been happening since before AI through platforms like social media, smartphones, and self-driving cars.
• Two critical hardware aspects are data collection platforms (sensors, cameras, mapping) and computational infrastructure (data centers, chips), where proximity to chip manufacturing provides competitive advantages.
• NVIDIA's dominance stems partly from founder Jensen Huang's Taiwanese-American background and personal relationships with TSMC leadership, creating what could be called a "Taiwan lobby" in Silicon Valley.
• Taiwan's economic interests align with mainland China (half their manufacturing is there) while their political interests align with the US, creating strategic tensions.
• Export controls on semiconductors to China came too late and actually incentivized China to develop their full semiconductor stack independently.
• The US should create a special industrial zone near San Francisco with cheap energy, reduced regulations, and government funding to compete with China in chip manufacturing.
• China no longer has cheap labor but rather very skilled, expensive labor, especially in coastal areas where wages can reach $100-200K annually.
• A second-best option for the US would be building semiconductor manufacturing in Texas near existing infrastructure like Starbase.
• The recommended strategy includes targeting allies' semiconductor companies for replacement, implementing talent acquisition programs, and using defense/national security arguments to justify the investment.
• The US should start with purely American-made chips for sensitive government applications (NSA, CIA) as a national security imperative.
• Co-locating chip fabs, data centers, and AI labs would create a powerful feedback loop where 15-minute drives replace 15-hour flights for collaboration.
• On automation, AI will likely automate white-collar knowledge work first since digital activities are easier to train on than physical world tasks.
• Automating knowledge work could lead to dangerous political consequences, as displaced white-collar workers might turn to activism and push for protectionist policies.
• There's a risk that AI automation could lead to negative economic growth if it only automates 95% of white-collar work while leaving physical jobs intact.
• The "laptop class" poses more political danger than physical workers because they have better tools for organizing and influencing policy.
• Physical automation will likely require specialized companies for each domain (baristas, waiters, etc.) rather than general-purpose robots, leading to gradual economic growth.
• On immigration, while top talent is desirable, roughly half of crucial industry leadership should be domestic citizens to ensure patriotic alignment with national interests.
• Having homogeneous cultural groups within companies (speaking only Hindi, Mandarin, etc.) can create unfair advantages and isn't true meritocracy.
• Immigration works best with diversity from many countries rather than concentration from single nations.

This week on Live Players, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss geopolitical and societal complexities of the India-Pakistan conflict, examining the historical context, demographic challenges, military capabilities, and potential outcomes of the ongoing tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

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SPONSORS:
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LINKS:
India: Live Players Analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GbsYh2kx7Y 

Bismarck Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ 

—
X / TWITTER:
@samoburja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia

—
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
• The India-Pakistan conflict is rooted in the partition of British India.
• Both countries have significant military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.
• India's large Muslim population poses internal stability challenges during conflicts.
• Pakistan's military plays a crucial role in maintaining state cohesion.
• The potential for a prolonged war could lead to significant domestic unrest in India.
• China's involvement in the region complicates the geopolitical landscape.
• The conflict is characterized by a cycle of sporadic fighting and ceasefires.
• Misunderstandings about the precariousness of Pakistan's state legitimacy are common.
• An expansionist war for India lacks a clear victory scenario.
• The historical narratives of both countries shape their current political identities.

Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the potential industrial revolutions in history, particularly in the Roman Empire and Song Dynasty China, their technological advancements, economic factors, and the reasons these revolutions didn't reach full fruition.

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SPONSORS:
☁️ More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 

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LINKS:
Las Medulas in Spain: https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/803/ 
Monte Testaccio in Rome: https://www.historyskills.com/classroom/ancient-history/monte-testaccio/?srsltid=AfmBOoonzF0CVGKjzUFs46kkI9fZ-FVcBTDOMAVs8vtFcxH4iKcNx09f 

Bismarck Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ 

—
X / TWITTER:
@samoburja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

In this episode of Live Players, Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss the global influence of U.S. politics on Western countries, the persistence of Western civilization as a political unit, the synchronization of political interests via the internet, and the potential for significant right-wing and free speech shifts in Europe given increased American cultural influence.

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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 

🎙️ Second Opinion: Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv 

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr

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SPONSORS:

☁️ More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

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LINKS:

Two buttons meme: https://ih1.redbubble.net/image.2365085899.3351/st,small,507x507-pad,600x600,f8f8f8.jpg 

The Clash of Civilizations: https://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/1451628978

Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

—

X / TWITTER:

@samoburja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss the future of space colonization, touching on the implications of Mars and lunar settlements, the technological advancements driving space exploration, and how multi-planetary life might reshape human cultures, geopolitical dynamics, and economic structures.

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🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 

🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod 

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SPONSORS:

☁️ More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

—

LINKS:

Starship: https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/ 

(Pirate Wars) Moon Should Be a State: https://www.piratewires.com/p/moon-should-be-a-state 

Artemis: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/artemis/ 

SLS: https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/space-launch-system/ 

Boom Supersonic:https://boomsupersonic.com/

Blue Origin: https://www.blueorigin.com/ 

Referenced Live Players episodes:

The Turbulence of Boeing: Decline and Future Prospects: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1pmCK6CrK4 

The Technology That Can Reshape Nations (Desalination): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_gEHhSXECs 

Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

—

X / TWITTER:

@samoburja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

In this episode of Live Players, Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss Curtis Yarvin's influence on government efficiency ideas, the pitfalls of gridlock and bureaucratic decay, and how transformative figures and strategic decision-making affect national and corporate success.

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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 

🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod 

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SPONSORS:

☁️ More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

🔐 Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex 

—

LINKS:

'The Interview': Curtis Yarvin Says Democracy is Done (The New York Times): https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/magazine/curtis-yarvin-interview.html

Curtis Yarvin on the End of American Democracy (Podcast): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcSil8NeQq8 

Dwarkesh’s tweet: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1881776987322376435

Samo’s Tweet: https://x.com/SamoBurja/status/1882525049003164147 

Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

—

X / TWITTER:

@samoburja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

Samo Burja discusses his "Great Founder Theory," in the Word of DaaS Podcast with Auren Hoffman, arguing that exceptional individuals throughout history have shaped civilization by creating influential institutions, while also exploring modern challenges around societal trust, fertility rates, and the changing dynamics between young and old generations in contemporary society.

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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 

🎙️World of DaaS with Auren Hoffman

The podcast for all things tech, data, and VC. Cut through the noise, decode Silicon Valley shifts and expose master VC tactics – no fluff, no BS, just insights.

Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/20YzRoxX3wZbrn2cZDEZ4j 

Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/world-of-daas/id1570644971 

🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod 

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SPONSORS:

☁️ More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

🔐 Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex 

📝 Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod 

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LINKS:

Great Founder Theory: https://samoburja.com/great-founder-theory/ 

Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

—

X / TWITTER:

@samoburja

@auren

@worldofdaas

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

This week on Live Players, Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss the significance of desalination technology, its advancements, costs, and potential to transform scarcity in regions with water shortages, highlighting how countries like Israel, Singapore, and the Gulf monarchies have employed these technologies and speculating on the geopolitical and environmental impacts.

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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod 

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SPONSOR:

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LINKS:

The Untapped Potential of Desalination: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/the-untapped-potential-of-desalination 

1957, 1978, 2005 Chicken Sizes diagram: https://compote.slate.com/images/4e407854-6360-4172-a85e-d7b8c64fd365.jpg?width=1200 

Growth, efficiency, and yield of commercial broilers from 1957, 1978, and 2005: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0032579119385505

Live Players: Can China Power Its Rise?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOei7kZjuZU 

Live Players: The Possibility of Human Extinction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEQEMpxLnGA&t=42s  

Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

—

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg

@samoburja

@turpentinemedia

—

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss the impact of social media platforms like Twitter, now X, especially under Elon Musk's ownership. They explore the changing political landscape, the dynamics of media personalities, and the evolving role of social media in shaping public discourse and political behavior.

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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

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SPONSORS:

🤲🏼 GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. (Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to support our show.)

📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at carta.com/investors.

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LINKS:

Book: Hatching Twitter: A True Story of Money, Power, Friendship, and Betrayal: https://www.amazon.com/Hatching-Twitter-Story-Friendship-Betrayal/dp/1591847087 

Google Paper: Attention Is All You Need: https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper_files/paper/2017/file/3f5ee243547dee91fbd053c1c4a845aa-Paper.pdf

Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

—

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg

@samoburja

@turpentinemedia

—

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg the current situation in Syria, including the impact of President Assad's exile, the role of various factions and foreign powers, and the challenges of establishing a stable government amid ongoing conflict.

—

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

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SPONSORS:

🤲🏼 GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. (Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to support our show.)

📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at carta.com/investors.

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LINKS:

Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

—

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg

@samoburja

@turpentinemedia

—

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: