Mental Model #8: Look for Equilibrium Points. This mental model is about noticing trends in progress. When you first start something, you go from zero to one - that's an infinite rate of progress. Then you go from one to two, two to three, and so on, and the rate of progress slows, and the returns start diminishing. Somewhere around there is an equilibrium point that truly represents what the average mean will be. Don't make the mistake of not waiting for it.

Mental Model #9: Wait for the Regression to the Mean. This is the final mental model about seeing the whole picture in terms of information. A change without a reason for the change is not really a change; it's just a deviation. As such, it doesn't represent what will continue to happen in the future. A regression to the mean is when things settle back down and resume what they were doing before - this is representative of reality.

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Peter Hollins is a bestselling author, human psychology researcher, and a dedicated student of the human condition.

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