Markets Now with Michelle Rook

John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans make new lows and hit prices not seen for four years on both supply and demand problems.  Plus fund and farmer selling is pressuring the market.  So how ugly could it get?  Wheat sees a short covering bounce. Cattle set back with lower cash and cutouts and August option expiration.  Hog futures extend gains with higher cutouts.  

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Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are seeing more pressure early Thursday with the futures looking tired and toppy.  He says there's been a lack of cash trade this week which has fueled talk of weaker cash but he's expecting steady trade.  Hogs are higher supported by stronger cash and a 13th day of the Lean Hog Index rising, plus decent weekly exports at 31,500 metric tons.  Corn and soybeans continue to grind out new lows with rains this week in key areas of the Corn Belt and more in the forecast promoting ideas of record yields.  

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Grains end mixed.  Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn had a poor technical close makeing new lows and with December closing below $4 for the first time since December 2020.  Soybeans make new lows as well before closing slightly higher on end of month profit taking but he says $10 is vulnerable on November with August weather favorable.  Wheat traded 2-sided and mixed but may be trying to forge a low as it has dropped to levels that make it globally competitive.  Live cattle were back lower awaiting cash trade, while hogs were up with a persistently stronger cash market.  

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Grains started mixed Wednesday but quickly see weakness creep in. Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says the funds have been relentless sellers and continue to push grains into new lows with the idea of higher production.  However, he thinks the grain markets are close to forming lows at least technically and funds may reverse course if the dollar can continue to weaken with interest rates cuts starting from the Fed.  Cattle continue to chop looking for direction from cash and carving out a trading range.  

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Grains end lower again on Tuesday seeing more fund selling pressure on the lack of news and the lack of a weather threat.  Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says it could get uglier if November soybeans take out $10 and December corn $4 but she doesn't think that will happen until after the WASDE. Soft and Hard Red Winter wheats made contract lows and Minneapolis came within a cent but Thompson expects more pressure in wheat as spring wheat harvest is starting to roll and until the U.S. gets competitive enough to spur export demand.  Meanwhile cattle rebound but she says that market is carving out a trading range.  

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Cattle futures recover after a day of technical selling on Monday.  Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says last week's higher cash trade and higher boxed beef values continue to be supportive as well as the futures discount.  However, to keep going October live cattle need to take out resistance at $189.  Lean hog futures trade 2-sided early trying to hold support after a wicked technical reversal last week and with help from higher cutouts and the higher lean hog index.  Grains are lower with new lows in soybeans on rains that fell in the Corn Belt and a more favorable extended forecast and that is weighing on corn.  

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Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans see another down day with rains that fell in the Corn Belt, including Iowa, and a more favorable extended weather forecast.  That brought fund selling pressure in.  So she says $10 may not hold on November beans.  And while corn saw a little uptick with wheat Monday she says December corn is likely to take out $4.  Meanwhile, wheat saw some light short covering and ideas U.S. wheat prices are becoming more competitive.  Cattle set back on technical selling after hitting chart resistance and despite last week's $2 higher fed cash trade.  

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A risk off start Monday in the ag markets with just about everything lower except a few wheat contracts.  Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says a change in the extended weather to cooler and wet pushed the soybeans into new contract lows and bean oil is still digesting Friday's biofuels court ruling.  Corn is hold up a little better with near term weather for the Western Corn Belt still hot and dry.  Wheat is trying to recover from Friday's contract lows. Cattle lower despite higher cash and cutouts last week as some hedge pressure has set in.  

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Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says grains sell off on Friday on profit taking heading into the weekend, a change in the weather and a bearish biofuels ruling.  Corn and soybeans did technical damage on the daily charts, but if forecasted rains don't materialize could the markets shoot right back up Sunday night?  Both classes of winter wheat make new contract lows under the pressure of ample supplies.  Cotton also made news contract lows again.  Meanwhile, live cattle new highs for the move on the heels of $2 higher cash and then ended mixed.  

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Grains see end of week profit taking on some rain chances creeping into the extended forecast.  Darin Newsom with Barchart says this is typical in a weather market but the recent rally has also been fund short covering.  So he is watching the monthly closes as there is a positive change in trend for corn and soybeans if they close higher and that could bottom the market.  He is also watching the reallocation of money in outside markets including the stock market and what that might mean for ag markets.  Plus, the PCE was positive but does it give the Fed the ammunition they needs to lower rates?  

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