Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe

Oren Cass, chief economist at American Compass, joins Jack to make the case that globalization over the past 50 years has been bad for American workers, and that tariffs are needed in order to remedy longstanding imbalances within the global economy. Cass also shares his view on tariffs’ role within the broader American conservative movement. Recorded on June 25, 2025.

Oren Cass’ book, “The New Conservatives: Restoring America's Commitment to Family, Community, and Industry”: https://www.amazon.com/New-Conservatives-Restoring-Commitment-Community/dp/B0DXD6CB8M/ref=sr_1_3?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.Cg1AhfRv1IF_PQOZF9cf-rypEl5AfrYsisPBB9QXvHaosPwFIYLnD9WaHz50kbCfcY87loISitb1GKHjwNxWDw.IPnNIrxv3NdYL_dChBGywJ8HWT_pGd2RsPP8jt2J9T8&dib_tag=se&qid=1752157606&refinements=p_27%3AOren+Cass&s=books&sr=1-3

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This Other People’s Money episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHMax

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Warren Pies, strategist and co-founder at 3Fourteen Research joins Other People’s Money to discuss how the market and economy are transitioning from a deflation to a debasement mindset. He explains why he’s bullish equities, expecting continued disinflation despite his longer-term debasement view, and expecting the Fed to cut 3 times before the end of the year while the economy avoids recession. Pies also looks back on his launching his first year as an ETF fund manager.

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An investment in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in the semiconductor industry, special risk considerations of investing in Taiwanese issuers, equity securities, small-, medium and large-capitalization companies, foreign securities, emerging market issuers, foreign currency, depositary receipts, issuer-specific changes, market, operational, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, new fund, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, and index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Small, medium and large-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. Emerging market issuers and foreign securities may be subject to securities markets, political and economic, investment and repatriation restrictions, different rules and regulations, less publicly available financial information, foreign currency and exchange rates, operational and settlement, and corporate and securities laws risks.

Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.

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Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Monetary Matters to update listeners on her read of the economic cycle and credit markets. She shares her thesis that the U.S. economy entered recession in early 2024, exited it, and is now entering another recession in a process similar to the double dip recession of 1980-1981. Recorded on June 26, 2025

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Sam Stovall, CFRA Research’s U.S. Equity Strategist joins Monetary Matters to explain his bullish (with a lowercase b) view on U.S. equities, and offers several overweights and underweights of CFRA Research across the stock market. Recorded on June 25, 2025.Sam Stovall’s book, “The Seven Rules of Wall Street”: https://www.amazon.com/Seven-Rules-Wall-Street-Crash-Tested/dp/0071615172

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Abdul Al-Asaad, CEO and co-founder of Basic Capital, joins Other People’s Money to discuss how Basic Capital is revolutionizing access to leverage for everyday Americans. He argues that American’s have far too much access to credit for the wrong use, consumption, and far too little access for positive uses like investing in assets that could change their financial future. He discusses how Basic Capital’s term financing works, why most of the capital you receive through Basic Capital is invested in private credit, and why he believes that for many people inaction is a bigger risk than taking a leveraged bet on stocks and bonds.

Learn more about Basic Capital: https://basiccapital.com

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:52 Basic Capital Backlash

10:12 Leverage as General Purpose Tool

17:07 Risk in Leverage

20:13 Learning from the Kings of Leverage

25:42 Term Financing

31:46 Private Credit & S&P 500: How Basic Capital Invests

38:51 How Private Credit Works

44:44 Private Credit Hates Basic Capital

48:37 The Risk of Being Left Behind

56:02 Basic Capital Fees and 401k Investing

01:03:32 Building a New Credit Market

Joseph Cavatoni, senior market strategist at The World Gold Council, joins Jack to share the developments within the global gold market. Cavatoni shares findings from The World Gold Council’s recent report on central banks’ gold reserves, and he explains current demand trends across the world. He reviews the supply situation and tells Jack about the more mine-friendly permitting regime from the new U.S. administration. Recorded on June 23, 2025.World Gold Council’s Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2025: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves-survey-2025

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Eric Pachman, Chief Analytics Officer at Bancreek Capital Advisors, joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the healthcare sector, the strongest sector for job growth in the whole economy, could falter because of the proposed cuts to spending in the Big Beautiful Bill and potentially even tip the whole economy into a recession. He also discusses how important government spending is in propping up the healthcare industry, making it largely unaffected by the tools the Federal Reserve would likely use to combat a potential recession led by the healthcare sector.

Read more from Eric and try Bancreek’s data visualization tools: https://www.bancreek.com/blog

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Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception, returns to Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on global imbalances that have been building in the monetary system for decades. He shares what his data-driven approach indicates about the U.S. Dollar, global equities, and more. He also explains the challenges he sees ahead for U.S. homebuilding companies. Recorded June 19, 2025.

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Jack Farley and Max Wiethe break down the market’s reaction to today’s Federal Reserve decision, the Summary of Economic Projections, and Jerome Powell’s press conference. They also discuss parallels between this market and late 2021, debate whether AI is a bubble, and the eternal question of when the next US recession will occur.

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Mike Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify, joins Monetary Matters to discuss why the strength of the equity market and other technical factors are obfuscating weakness in the US consumer and broader indicators of economic weakness to the point that it could be masking a recession. Green also discusses his views on inflation, the bond market, and the current stage of the passive investing endgame that he believes is the main culprit driving equity markets higher and higher.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:46 US Consumer Mirage

08:59 The Impact of High Interest Rates

13:39 Labor Market Weakness Will Eventually Force the Fed to Cut

15:03 Current Stage of the Passive Endgame

25:25 Recession Timing

33:31 How Will Asset Values Fair in the Next Recession?

40:30 Bond Market &Inflation Views

46:38 Uber's Impact on Unemployment

52:03 Tariff Uncertainty & the Fed

54:04 Bonds, Housing, & Other Macro Trades

01:02:03 Bitcoin, Solana, & Other Closing Thoughts