Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

By Jack Farley

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.... more

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The podcast currently has 303 episodes available.

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Number 1: Why Bessent Blinked | Luke Gromen on Doubling of Treasury Buyback Plan to Tame Long-End Yields
Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn Luke Gromen — founder of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) Research — returns to Monetary Matters the same week Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of Treasury buybacks, and Luke argues it's the first real admission that the U.S. has what his firm calls an "emerging market hard currency debt spiral problem." The math that doesn't work: Luke breaks down why entitlements, interest, and veterans benefits now total 105% of federal receipts — and why that obligation is "hard currency" the government can't inflate away, growing 7.5% a year against receipts growing only 4%. The gold revaluation scenario: Step by step, Luke lays out how the Treasury could legally revalue U.S. gold reserves from $42/oz to $20,000/oz under existing Federal Reserve accounting rules, mechanically depositing roughly $5 trillion into the TGA — and stages it as the FDR "fireside chat" he'd give the country to explain it. Grading his own Iran war calls: Luke reviews the predictions he made when the U.S. attacked Iran — three out of four hit (the Treasury market breaking before Iran's economy did, Hormuz staying closed longer than expected) — and owns the one he got wrong: a Chinese oil-demand collapse that never came. Bessent's yen intervention and the $13-14 trillion carry trade: Luke explains the "stylized Instagram" front-run story behind Bessent's yen intervention, and why the offshore dollar carry trade — $65 trillion gross, $22 trillion net in foreign-owned dollar assets — is the real constraint on U.S. policy. Why gold, not bonds: Luke makes the case that TLT is down 90-95% against gold since 2014 with "another 90-95% to go," and that the S&P 500 is already down 30-50% against gold since 2022 and 2000 respectively. Hamiltonian economics and the AI CapEx bubble: From Bessent to Jamieson Greer to JD Vance, Luke argues the administration is quietly building tariff policy around 19th-century "neutral reserve asset" economics — while comparing today's AI buildout to the canal, railroad, and telecom bubbles that all preceded it. Private credit's Treasury problem: Luke connects insurance companies stuffed with illiquid private credit (instead of long-duration Treasuries) to UAE liquidity stress and the Hormuz shutdown, and explains why that's quietly removing a natural buyer from the bond market. Teucrium on X https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Luke Gromen on X https://x.com/LukeGromen Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
August 20, 20261h 29min
Number 2: Is Private Equity Broken? Why the Buyside’s Problems Are Making 2026 “The Year of the Banker” | High Yield Harry
In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with High Yield Harry to examine the major trends in Wall Street compensation and careers, and why 2026 may be the year of the investment banker. Harry shares data from Buy Side Hub to detail buy-side compensation trends, career mobility bottlenecks, and why private equity professionals are resorting to non-recourse loans while waiting on delayed exits. The conversation breaks down the real threat of AI automation on financial modeling and grunt work, emphasizing why finance professionals must develop real-economy operating skills to survive. They also address the surge in private credit redemptions, retail investor panic, and whether buying small businesses is replacing the traditional mega-fund career path. Check out Buyside Hub: https://www.buysidehub.com Follow High Yield Harry on X: https://x.com/HighyieldHarry Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:45 Year of the Banker 03:38 Private Credit Redemptions 07:04 Retail Flows and Gating 10:18 Comp Trends and Hiring 13:17 Career Pyramid Reality 15:13 AI Reshapes Analyst Work 17:16 Big Firms vs Small Shops 20:27 Operators and Real Economy 23:56 Agents and Human Edge 26:39 Who Gets Displaced? 31:46 Rates and Longer Holds 37:42 Software Credit Time Bomb 41:16 Choosing Your Career Track 47:22 Top Jobs and Trading 51:56 Closing Takeaways 54:03 Banking Cycles and Layoffs 57:03 Conclusion
August 24, 202658min
Number 3: Robin Wigglesworth on Hyperscalers' 1.5 Trillion of Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities, Private Credit, and His Book "A Fabulous Debt"
Robin Wigglesworth — editor of FT Alphaville and author of A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World — joins Jack Farley to unpack the hidden debt fueling the AI buildout. Wigglesworth reveals that off-balance-sheet leverage from hyperscalers like Meta, Google, and Microsoft jumped from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in a single quarter, hidden in lease structures and purchase commitments that never show up as debt — including Google's own $800 billion in disclosed obligations. He argues the NVIDIA-Blackstone-KKR financing wave marks a shift from an equity-driven boom to a debt cycle, a distinction that makes today's AI buildout riskier than the dot-com bust ever was. The conversation moves from private credit's "spray and pray" lending problem to nine centuries of financial history — the Erie Canal boom, the 1873 railway mania, and the 19th-century fraudster who invented an entire country to sell government bonds. They close on whether credit rating agencies can survive the AI era, and why "the language of credit" may outlast every model built to replace it. It's a conversation about debt, leverage, and the patterns that connect 19th-century railroads to trillion-dollar data centers. Recorded August 13, 2026. “A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built The Modern World”:https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/750210/a-fabulous-debt-by-robin-wigglesworth/ “A Fabulous Debt” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0593719182?lv=shuf&channelId=500&plpRedirect=mhFallback Robin Wigglesworth on X https://x.com/RobinWigg Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
August 16, 20261h 6min
Number 4: “I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome Portfolio
Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtmap and the new book “The Awesome Portfolio”, returns to argue that the bond bear market is a sentiment story that has gone too far. Jared calls the market's obsession with deficits and inflation a "mind virus," notes that the $2 trillion deficit is only 6% of GDP versus 12% in 2010, and points out that everyone measures bond supply while nobody measures demand. He has moved a large share of his own money into long bonds as a three-to-five-year hold, calling 5.2–5.3% on 30s and 4.7% on 10s an incredible deal, especially with payrolls deteriorating, JOLTS and PMIs rolling over, and the market still pricing meaningful odds of a hike. On equities, Dillian walked the top 50 S&P charts and sees semis, healthcare, and financials topping — the broker-dealers look worst — while Intel and Oracle look like they're bottoming. He and Jack debate whether the semiconductor washout is over, disagree on where the leverage actually sits (Jack cites Vanda data showing retail positioning in semis near two-year lows), and Dillian warns that the Situational Awareness blowup was the Bear Stearns of this cycle, not the Lehman. He explains why he thinks AI is a bubble for a reason specific to this cycle: it's the first time in his career he's seen tech financed with debt rather than equity, at 6% coupons, for assets that go obsolete in three years. He also lays out his cautiously bullish gold view, why copper is his least favorite metal, why private credit still hasn't found a bottom, and the case for The Awesome Portfolio — equal weights in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate, which gives up one to two points of annual return but halves volatility and has never drawn down more than 12%. Recorded September 1, 2026. Jared’s new book, “The Awesome Portfolio”: https://lnk.to/theawesomeportfolio Jared Dillian on X https://x.com/dailydirtnap Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
September 03, 202633min
Number 5: Why Farmland With Centuries of Water Is the Ultimate Scarce Asset | John Farris of LandFund Partners on Super El Niño, Food Security, and the Sources of Alpha in Farmland
Learn more about LandFund Partners: https://landfundpartners.com/invest#get-started Jack Farley speaks with John Farris, founder & CEO of LandFund Partners and former World Bank agricultural economist, about the tightening global food equation — and where the return actually comes from in farmland. The setup: if the world stopped growing crops tomorrow, John says there are roughly 70 days of food in reserve, down from 110 a decade ago. Two billion more people, more protein per capita, less arable land, and productivity gains that have flattened out. Into that comes a Super El Niño that John's heat maps suggest will hit Brazil, Argentina, and India — the last of which depends on the monsoon to grow the world's most-consumed calorie: rice. Commodity futures prices have risen significantly this year. That's the backdrop. The investment argument rests on three things.The first is a value that sits on no balance sheet. Across most of the eastern US there are no formal water rights, so LandFund carries its water at zero. In the Colorado River states, where those rights did develop, they've compunded at roughly 11% a year over the past thirty-five years, outpacing the S&P 500 over that time period.John argues the same legal framework is coming to the Mid-South within ten years, pushed by the hyperscalers already knocking on his door for water offsets — and that when it arrives, a line item currently marked at nothing gets marked at something. The second leg is convergence. When LandFund started in 2013, Midwest row crop farmland traded roughly 140% above comparable Mid-South ground; today the gap is 80–100%. John's argument is that the gap should be zero, and that it inverts: land with 300 years of water, 93% irrigation, and the ability to rotate between ten and twenty crops is worth more than land that is high-quality soil but weather-dependent — not less. Iowa bets on rain. He doesn't have to. The third is operational. LandFund required regenerative practices in its lease agreements since 2021, and John walks through the J-curve economics: $50–100 an acre and a couple of lean years up front, then lower fertilizer use, fewer passes across the field, less irrigation, and net income he estimates runs 30–40% higher than it otherwise would — which flows straight into rents, which flow into rents. Also covered: the "dirty secret" of powering data centers using 100x the water they consume, riparian rights and what happens when states start metering overuse, what the One Big Beautiful Bill did to price floors through 2032, solar developers paying 3x farmland value for ground with transmission lines, and why US row crop farmland has been negatively correlated to both stocks and bonds. Disclaimer: This episode is a fireside chat sponsored by LandFund Partners. Any data, statistics, or information discussed is for informational purposes only. This is not an offer to sell securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. About LandFund Partners: https://www.landfundpartners.com/#home LandFund's piece on water rights: https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesfinancecouncil/2026/06/23/water-rights-the-invisible-asset-farmland-investors-are-beginning-to-price-in/ John Farris on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jofarris/ Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps 0:00 Intro on John Farris and LandFund Partners 4:22 70 Days of Food Reserves? 7:45 Super El Niño Risk in 2026 8:31 Iowa vs. the Mississippi Alluvial Aquifer 13:49 Beating NCREIF and the S&P 500: The Playbook 14:55 Water Reserves in Mississippi Alluvial Aquifer Are Immense 20:51 "300 Years of Water at Current Draw Rates" 26:28 Improving the Land and Regenerative farming 32:40 Farm Subsidies and the One Big Beautiful Bill 38:07 Crop rotation: cotton, corn, rice, soybeans 42:53 Is rice the trade right now? 46:39 Soybeans, fertilizer, and China buying again 48:38 Rice at all-time highs 50:11 Optionality beyond farming: Solar, Transmission Lines, Minerals 55:27 Data Centers? 56:09 What's next for LandFund 1:00:37 Why Farmland Has Had Negative Correlation With Risk Assets 1:04:35 Super El Niño: What to Expect 1:06:51 Feeding ten billion people 1:07:40 The 20-year outlook for all Four Crops
September 11, 20261h 14min