Moving Iron Podcast

Takeaways

• Early harvest soybean yields are disappointing due to weather conditions.
• Brazil's drought has significantly altered moisture patterns affecting crop yields.
• Farmers should consider selling during price rallies to secure profits.
• Weather continues to be a critical factor in agricultural production.
• The Federal Reserve's decisions can lead to market volatility.
• Oil prices are under pressure due to oversupply and geopolitical factors.
• Natural gas is currently undervalued and presents a long-term buying opportunity.
• The demand for natural gas is expected to rise with new LNG facilities coming online.
• Cotton production is at risk due to weather events during critical growth periods.
• Market complacency may lead to unexpected price movements in commodities.

Sound Bites

• "Soybean yields are very disappointing."
• "Brazil's drought is a serious concern."
• "Farmers need to take advantage of the current pricing environment."

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Commodity Trends

01:01 Soybean Yield Disappointments

03:36 Brazil's Drought Impact on Crops

09:06 Market Reactions and Farmer Strategies

12:14 Weather's Role in Cotton Production

14:55 Federal Reserve's Influence on Markets

17:35 Oil Market Dynamics

21:42 Natural Gas Outlook and Fertilizer Implications

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

Move More Iron with Fusable! Get your Free Demo at

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Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @FusableData @EDAdata @Valleytransinc 

Music By: @TalbottBrothers 

Host: @casey9673 

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron 

Contact Me at: 

MovingIronLLC.com 

[email protected]

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Takeaways

• High school football is a beloved tradition and a special time for parents, especially during their children's senior year.
• The Machine Shed is a new venture within the Moving Iron Podcast that focuses on farm equipment, including construction equipment, trucks, trailers, and irrigation systems.
• The auction market for farm equipment is currently experiencing some fluctuations, with dealers sometimes pulling back and other times jumping in with both feet.
• There are misconceptions about equipment prices, with some people not considering the dealer net price and the discounts involved in equipment purchases.
• The equipment market follows a cyclical pattern, with periods of high demand and high prices followed by periods of stabilization and lower prices.
• Commodity prices play a significant role in equipment sales, with farmers tending to buy new equipment when commodity prices are favorable and they have the financial means to do so. The agricultural equipment market has been impacted by various black swan events, including COVID-19, geopolitical tensions, and drought conditions.
• The upcoming auction season is expected to be similar to the current market conditions, with a steady volume of equipment being sold.
• There is a demand for one to two-year-old row crop tractors, but older tractors are facing pressure in the market.
• Trade-ins can be a beneficial option for maximizing dollars when selling equipment.
• Contact information for further inquiries: Aaron Finnell - 308-760-1193, Casey Seymour - movingironllc.com

Titles

• The Cyclical Nature of the Equipment Market
• Dispelling Misconceptions About Equipment Prices Maximizing Dollars through Trade-Ins
• Pressure on Older Tractors in the Market

Sound Bites

• "Come on"
• "Introducing Sammy Ball and the forward pass"
• "Yellow iron"
• "Think about how many black swans affected what we saw happen."
• "Now is when we can really use another pandemic."
• "It's a combination of, it's, you know, basically it's a perfect storm the wrong way for everybody except the used buyer."

Chapters

00:00 The Excitement of High School Football and Senior Year

04:08 Introducing The Machine Shed: A Focus on Farm Equipment

07:24 Understanding the Fluctuations in the Auction Market

09:05 Dispelling Misconceptions About Equipment Prices

12:43 The Cyclical Nature of the Equipment Market

16:19 The Impact of Commodity Prices on Equipment Sales

18:41 Factors Impacting the Agricultural Equipment Market

20:03 Expectations for the Upcoming Auction Season

21:37 Demand for One to Two-Year-Old Row Crop Tractors

21:59 Pressure on Older Tractors in the Market

23:09 Maximizing Dollars through Trade-Ins

24:59 Contact Information for Further Inquiries

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

Move More Iron with Fusable! Get your Free Demo at

info.ironsolutions.com/moving-iron-podcast.

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @FusableData @EDAdata @Valleytransinc 

Music By: @TalbottBrothers 

Host: @casey9673 

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron 

Contact Me at: 

MovingIronLLC.com 

[email protected]

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Takeaways

• Richard Posson uses business cycle analysis and patterns to predict market trends.
• He accurately predicted the COVID crash in 2020 and has a successful track record in trading stocks and commodities.
• Richard believes that corn prices are at a long-term bottom and expects a bullish trend in commodities.
• He discusses the impact of interest rates and the dollar on the market.
• Richard emphasizes the importance of considering both fundamental and technical analysis in understanding market movements.

Sound Bites

• "I lump it together and I just give it an old fashioned simple name of business cycle analysis."
• "I was able to catch the high in 2020 within two hours before that COVID crash."
• "My model has been bearish on interest rates, meaning we think lower interest rates are coming."

Chapters

00:00

Introduction to Richard Posson and his podcast

02:24

Business Cycle Analysis and Predicting Market Trends

05:35

Discussion on Interest Rates and the Dollar

18:05

Fluctuations in the Dollar and its Impact on Commodities

21:17

Long-Term Bottoms and Bullish Trends in Commodities

26:36

Understanding Balance Sheets and Assessing Crop Stocks

31:40

The Challenges of Fundamental Analysis in Market Forecasting

38:09

The Importance of Combining Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

Move More Iron with Fusable! Get your Free Demo at

info.ironsolutions.com/moving-iron-podcast.

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @FusableData @EDAdata @Valleytransinc 

Music By: @TalbottBrothers 

Host: @casey9673 

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron 

Contact Me at: 

MovingIronLLC.com 

[email protected]

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Takeaways

• The corn crop may not reach the projected yield due to dry conditions and tar spot disease.
• The wheat market has been declining despite bullish news, which could impact the corn market.
• China is buying US soybeans, but it may be challenging to catch up on export numbers.
• The beef market is stabilizing, and building a base in prices is crucial.
• The September crop report will provide more clarity on the actual yield of corn.

Sound Bites

• "Game day, It's game day. Game day. Got Friday night. Got a game tonight."
• "That's what is behind this little little bounce."
• "That says, if we do end up under 180, the way the demand is, this thing could take on a little different life."

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Discussion of Current Market Conditions

02:01 Assessing the Impact of Dry Conditions and Tar Spot Disease on the Corn Crop

04:56 The Volatility of the Wheat Market and Its Potential Impact on Corn

09:16 Challenges in Catching Up on Soybean Export Numbers

13:58 Stabilizing the Beef Market and Building a Price Base

16:34 The Importance of the September Crop Report for Corn Yield

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

Move More Iron with Fusable! Get your Free Demo at

info.ironsolutions.com/moving-iron-podcast.

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @FusableData @EDAdata @Valleytransinc 

Music By: @TalbottBrothers 

Host: @casey9673 

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron 

Contact Me at: 

MovingIronLLC.com 

[email protected]

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Takeaways

• The commodities market is shifting, and there is a demand signal for corn.
• Weather conditions, such as drought, can impact crop production and potentially reduce yields.
• Trade tensions between Canada and China have affected canola exports, but this is expected to be a short-term issue.
• The market is reacting to short-term problems, but the long-term outlook remains positive.

Sound Bites

• "We've been trading the largest supplies on spreadsheets, meaning it never was real."
• "If you can make these prices work in your business right now, this is an opportunity like August of 2020 to get yourself on the input side of the equation."
• "They could run out of soybeans to sell within the next 45 days."

Chapters

00:00

Introduction and Overview

00:48

Technical Levels and Market Climbs

01:42

Real News and Headwinds in Crop Production

03:13

Trading the Largest Supplies on Spreadsheets

07:08

Opportunity to Buy Grains at Economic Prices

09:46

Shift in Market Sentiment and Catalysts for Growth

11:09

Impact of Trade Tensions on Canola Exports

13:28

Weather Conditions in Brazil and Market Reactions

15:19

Trade Tensions Between Canada and China

17:37

Market Reaction and Short-Term Outlook

19:45

Conclusion and Contact Information

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

Move More Iron with Fusable! Get your Free Demo at

info.ironsolutions.com/moving-iron-podcast.

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @FusableData @EDAdata @Valleytransinc 

Music By: @TalbottBrothers 

Host: @casey9673 

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron 

Contact Me at: 

MovingIronLLC.com 

[email protected]

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Takeaways

• The price of corn has experienced a downturn, but it is uncertain whether the market has hit the bottom. A technical buy signal, such as a weekly close over 401, would indicate a potential low.
• Balance sheets and availability influence demand for corn and soybeans. While there may be a surplus of corn, not all of it is necessarily for sale at current prices.
• Increased demand for bean oil, particularly for renewable diesel, could increase soybean prices.
• The cattle market is heavy, and producers are advised to lock prices to mitigate potential declines.
• The hog market is oversupplied, but an increase in Chinese demand could lead to an upturn in it.
• The Moving Iron Summit is a valuable event for those interested in the equipment business and the driving factors behind it.

Chapters

00:00Introduction and Discussion of Corn Prices

03:47Factors Influencing Demand and Balance Sheets for Corn and Soybeans

08:54The Potential for a Rally in Soybean Prices Due to Increased Demand for Bean Oil

12:59Concerns About the Cattle Market and the Need to Lock in Prices

15:00The Oversupply in the Hog Market and the Potential for Chinese Demand

18:16The Moving Iron Summit: A Valuable Event for the Equipment Business

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

Move More Iron with Fusable! Get your Free Demo at

info.ironsolutions.com/moving-iron-podcast.

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @FusableData @EDAdata @Valleytransinc 

Music By: @TalbottBrothers 

Host: @casey9673 

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron 

Contact Me at: 

MovingIronLLC.com 

[email protected]

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Takeaways

• Crop tours provide an estimate of crop yields, but the market may not react strongly to the findings if they are in line with expectations.
• Transient heat waves are unlikely to cause significant damage to crops, but sustained periods of heat can impact yields.
• The cattle market has been struggling to make headway and may be experiencing imbalances.
• Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting will provide insights into future monetary policy decisions.
• The accuracy of government economic data, such as employment numbers, has come into question.

Chapters

00:00Introduction

00:33Crop Tours and Market Reaction

03:05Impact of Heat Waves on Soybean Pollination

05:04Challenges in the Cattle Market

08:48Jerome Powell's Speech and Monetary Policy

09:17Questioning the Accuracy of Government Economic Data

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

Move More Iron with Fusable! Get your Free Demo at

info.ironsolutions.com/moving-iron-podcast.

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @FusableData @EDAdata @Valleytransinc 

Music By: @TalbottBrothers 

Host: @casey9673 

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron 

Contact Me at: 

MovingIronLLC.com 

[email protected]

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Akeaways

• Changes in the renewable diesel protocol are needed to sustain the soybean crush margin.
• Imports of used palm oil are taking away market share from bean oil, impacting the soybean market.
• Building strategic reserves for wheat is important given the tight supply situation.
• The hurricane season could have an impact on agricultural markets, particularly for cotton, orange juice, natural gas, and potentially rice.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Background

01:23 Sustaining the Soybean Crush Margin

03:14 The Impact of Palm Oil Imports on the Soybean Market

07:13 The Importance of Building Strategic Reserves for Wheat

11:48 The Potential Impact of Hurricanes on Agricultural Markets

18:09 Conclusion

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

Move More Iron with Fusable! Get your Free Demo at

info.ironsolutions.com/moving-iron-podcast.

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @FusableData @EDAdata @Valleytransinc 

Music By: @TalbottBrothers 

Host: @casey9673 

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron 

Contact Me at: 

MovingIronLLC.com 

[email protected]

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Takeaways

• The corn market is experiencing uncertainty, with prices fluctuating between $3.92 and $4.07. The market is trying to determine the actual yield and whether there will be any adjustments in September.
• Brazil's soybean production could significantly impact the global market. If Brazil realizes a six-plus billion-bushel bean crop, it could lead to a surge in world carryout.
• The cattle market is at a good value, with cash prices holding steady in the upper 180s. However, the market is closely watching the economy and consumer demand.
• The hog market is facing supply issues, with liquidation and increased efficiency in hog production. Pork exports are also a concern, with sales at a recent marketing year low.
• Overall, commodity markets are influenced by various factors such as yield, production, demand, and exports, and it is essential to monitor these factors for market trends closely.

Chapters

00:00 Uncertainty in the Corn Market

04:32 The Impact of Brazil's Soybean Production

10:07 Cattle Market: Steady Prices and Consumer Demand

14:21 Supply Issues and Decline in Pork Exports in the Hog Market

17:40 Monitoring Key Factors in the Commodity Markets

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

Move More Iron with Fusable! Get your Free Demo at

info.ironsolutions.com/moving-iron-podcast.

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @FusableData @EDAdata @Valleytransinc 

Music By: @TalbottBrothers 

Host: @casey9673 

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron 

Contact Me at: 

MovingIronLLC.com 

[email protected]

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Takeaways

• The recent ending stocks report for corn did not significantly change the overall picture of corn supply and demand.
• While the US has a large corn crop, the global corn market is actually quite bullish due to smaller crops in other countries.
• The focus for corn is shifting towards demand, which is expected to increase.
• Soybeans face challenges with high global stocks, reduced demand from China, and potential poor crops in Brazil.
• The cotton market has been beaten down but shows signs of stabilization and potential for a rebound.
• The hurricane season and geopolitical factors can impact the cotton market.
• Producers should be prepared to take advantage of opportunities to sell at better prices.

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

Move More Iron with Fusable! Get your Free Demo at

info.ironsolutions.com/moving-iron-podcast.

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @FusableData @EDAdata @Valleytransinc 

Music By: @TalbottBrothers 

Host: @casey9673 

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron 

Contact Me at: 

MovingIronLLC.com 

[email protected]

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.