Ola and I talk about the Biden administration’s National Security Memorandum on Missile Technology Exports, the new Trump administration executive order, MTCR implementation and defense trade streamlining more generally.

We summarize our recent article (link below at CSIS), and discuss the balance between protecting missile technologies and discouraging allies from pursuing nuclear weapons or other defense trade partners, how allies and industry engage the U.S. government to discuss defense technology cooperation and the barriers they face, and how the deteriorating security environment, technological advancement, and USG’s desire for allies to bolster their own defense capabilities created an interesting moment for reviewing export control approaches during our stint in the Biden NSC.

We also discuss the impacts MTCR policy reforms will have on commercial space cooperation. Missiles for military purposes and space launch vehicles (e.g., missiles are missiles) were treated in exactly the same way under the USG’s implementation of MTCR; the Biden NSM sought to separate the review of space launch vehicles and related technologies from missiles used for a defense end-use.

Finally, we try to forecast the defense trade streamlining priorities of the Trump administration, including FMS reform efforts that may begin under the President’s new E.O. and “pie in the sky” ideas.

In lieu of a more detailed summary of the podcast, I’m sharing a longer-than-usual reading list (below the image and subscribe button below) for anyone interested in further background on MTCR and related export control issues.

Reading List:

MTCR Basics

* Department of State factsheet: “Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) Frequently Asked Questions“

* FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Introduces New Guidance for Missile Technology Exports to Advance Nonproliferation Goals and Bolster Allied Defense Capabilities (Biden Administration, January 7, 2025).

* Executive Order: Reforming Defense Sales to Improve Speed and Accountability (Trump Administration, April 9, 2025).

* Trump Administration 2020 UAS Policy: “Trump Administration Approves Updated Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) Export Policy“

CSIS

* Ola Craft and Pranay Vaddi. “Revising Missile Controls Is Necessary to Help Allies and Prevent New Nuclear States” (2025)

* Audio version

* Sean Wilson. “Missile Technology Control Regime Reform: Key Changes and Next Steps“ (2025)

* Audio version

Arms Control Association

* “U.S. Reinterprets MTCR Rules” (2020)

* Van Vann Diepen. “Missile Technology Decontrol Proposals Are Counterproductive“ (2024)

* Van Vann Diepen. “Biden Loosens Missile Technology Export Controls” (2025)

* “The Missile Technology Control Regime at a Glance“

Congress

* Huizenga/McCaul: “Huizenga, McCaul Introduce Legislation to Modernize Missile Technology Export Controls“ (2025)

USSC

* William Greenwalt and Tom Corben. “AUKUS enablers? Assessing defence trade control reforms in Australia and the United States“

Press

* Allyson Park. “U.S., U.K., Australia Still Ironing Out Tech, Info Sharing Kinks.“ National Defense Magazine.

I also encourage you to follow the work of Fabian Hoffman, who is spending a lot of time and effort analyzing European defense industrial base issues, including conventional missile production and conventional deterrence. [ Fabian Hoffmann ]

See his work at Missile Matters:

Intro/outro music licensed by Soundstripe: “The Iron Curtain” by Wicked Cinema.

Recording and edits through Riverside.fm.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com