In this episode, Chris and Melanie are joined by Thomas Spoehr of the Heritage Foundation to talk about President Trump's FY2021 defense budget request: What's good in this budget, what's really bad, and what surprised them the most. Chris presses the issue of hearings on Afghanistan, Melanie recommends a new book on the presidency, and Thomas applauds a celebration of Washington's birthday.

Links

• "President's Budget FY 2021," White House, February 10, 2020
• "Defense Budget Overview: Irreversible Implementation of the National Defense Strategy," Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, February 2020
• Aaron Mehta, "Here's How Much Money the Pentagon Found through Internal Savings and Where It's Going," Defense News, February 6, 2020
• David Larter, "As China Continues Rapid Naval Expansion, the US Navy Begins Stockpiling Ship-Killing Missiles," Defense News, February 11, 2020
• Andrew Taylor, "Trump's $4.8 Trillion Budget Proposal Revisits Rejected Cuts," AP News, February 10, 2020
• Marcus Weisgerber, "DOD's 2021 Budget Would Trim Arsenal, Shift Funds to Arms Development," Defense One, February 10, 2020
• Stephen F. Knott, The Lost Soul of the American Presidency, (University of Kansas Press, 2019)
• Ashley Townsend, Brendan Thomas-Noone, and Matilda Steward, "Averting Crisis: American Strategy Military Spending, and Collective Defense in the Indo-Pacific," United States Studies Centre, August 19, 2019
• Thomas Spoehr, “Why the US Navy Needs At Least 355 Ships,” National Interest, February 11, 2020

Special guest Alice Hunt Friend joins Melanie and Chris for a very timely discussion about the possible repeal of the Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMFs) that presidents have used to justify a range of military operations since 9/11. A few members of Congress have been pushing to repeal these AUMFs for years, and even some reliably conservative voices now support such a move in the interest of restoring the proper balance between the legislative and executive branches on the critical question of war and peace. But most House and Senate Republicans oppose repeal. Would they change their tune with a Democrat in the White House? Or is there a partisan divide on the president’s war powers, with Republicans more inclined to defer to the chief executive and Democrats more inclined to rein in such power? Alice gives a shout out to SOCOM and throws shade on U.S. policy toward Libya, while Melanie dishes on former SEAL Eddie Gallagher. Chris doesn’t like Sen. Tom Cotton’s comments on China and the coronavirus, but he does like puppies!

Links

• Charles Stimson, "Why Repealing the 1991 and 2002 Iraq War Authorizations Is Sound Policy" Heritage Foundation, January 6, 2020
• Kevin Williamson, "Repeal the AUMF," National Review, January 5, 2020
• Elaine Luria and Max Rose, “Why We Voted Against the War Powers Resolution,” New York Times, January 11, 2020
• Megan Thielking and Lev Facher, “Health Experts Warn China Travel Ban Would Hinder Coronavirus Response,” STAT, January 31, 2020
• Adam Taylor, “China’s Coronavirus Has No Links to Weapons Research, Experts Say,” Washington Post, January 29, 2020
• Animal Planet’s “Puppy Bowl XVI”
• Andrew Dyer, "Retired Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher Strikes Back at SEALs Who Testified Against Him," San Diego Union-Tribune, January 28, 2020
• Gene Healy and John Glaser, "Repeal, Don't Replace, Trump's War Powers," New York Times, April 17, 2018
• Matthew Rosenberg, "Faulty Iowa App was Part of Push to Restore Democrats' Digital Edge," New York Times, February 4, 2020
• Noah Rothman, "Iowa in the Age of Mistrust," Commentary, February 4, 2020

Chris Brose of Anduril Industries joins Chris and Melanie to talk about Joseph Nye’s Texas National Security Review article, “What is a Moral Foreign Policy?” Should morality be taken into consideration when making foreign policy? How should we assess whether or not a president’s foreign policy is moral? Does using the language of morality make our foreign policy more or less clear? Do people in other countries view our foreign policy as moral? Should perception matter at home or abroad? Also, Chris Preble gets another opportunity to stick it to Saudi Arabia, Melanie shows some love for history, and Chris Brose recognizes the excellent work of some friends.

Links

• Joseph S. Nye Jr., “What is a Moral Foreign Policy?” Texas National Security Review, November 2019
• Joe Heim, "National Archives Exhibit Blurs Images Critical of President Trump," Washington Post, January 17, 2020
• Craig Whitlock, "Afghan War Plagued by 'Mendacity' and Lies, Inspector General Tells Congress," Washington Post, January 15, 2020
• Barack Obama, Presidential Study Directive 10, White House, August 4, 2011
• Rahul Sagar, "Rediscovering Indian Thought: How a Scholar Built a Database of Pre-Independence Magazines," Scroll, November 24, 2019
• "War with Iraq Is not in America's National Interest," New York Times, September 26, 2002
• Marc Fisher and Steven Zeitchik, “Saudi Crown Prince Implicated in Hack of Jeff Bezos’s Phone, U.N. Report Will Say,” Washington Post, January 21, 2020
• Heritage Pride Productions' Elf: The Musical,  January 23, 24, and 25th
• “The Future of Progressive Foreign Policy: 2020 and Beyond,” Cato Policy Forum, January 28th, 5:00 PM
• "Is War Over?” Cato Policy Forum, February 6th, 12:00 PM

After a long holiday hiatus, Hudson’s Patrick Cronin joins Melanie and Chris in a spirited discussion of U.S. policy toward China. How is this competition like the Cold War with the Soviet Union, and what’s different? What aspects of China’s behavior are most worrisome? What steps can be taken to reduce the likelihood of conflict? Or is a clash, even if it is mostly non-military in nature, inevitable? Patrick gives a shout out to the heroic men and women fighting wildfires in Australia, Melanie expresses her appreciation for Ricky Gervais, and Chris offers kudos to the U.S. press corps.

Links:

• Fareed Zakaria, "The New China Scare: Why America Shouldn’t Panic About Its Latest Challenger" Foreign Affairs, January/February 2020
• Christopher Preble, “A Useful Corrective to China Fearmongering,” Cato, December 6, 2019
• Christopher A. Preble, “NDAA 2020: Congress Neglects Its Responsibility Once Again,” Cato, December 10, 2019
• Salvador Rizzo, "Anatomy of a Trump Rally: 67 Percent of Claims Are False or Lacking Evidence," Washington Post, January 7, 2020
• “In 1,055 Days, President Trump Has Made 15,413 False or Misleading Claims,” Washington Post, December 10, 2019
• Jordan Hoffman, "No One Knows Where Mike Pence Got His Soleimani 'Facts' From," Vanity Fair, January 4, 2020
• John Hudson, Josh Dawsey, Shane Harris, and Dan Lemothe, "Killing of Soleimani Follows Long Push From Pompeo For Aggressive Action Against Iran, but Airstrike Brings Serious Risks," Washington Post, January 5, 2020
• Richard Fontaine, “Great Power Competition is Washington’s Top Priority, but Not the Public’s,” Foreign Affairs, September 11, 2019
• Nils Gilman, “China, Capitalism, and the New Cold War,” American Interest, November 18, 2019
• Justin Rohrlich, “A Chinese Tourist Accused of Espionage is the Latest Example of a Growing Threat to US Security,” Quartz, January 5, 2020
• Josh Blackman, Tweets, January 6, 2020
• Ricky Gervais, 2020 Golden Globes, January 5, 2020
• Patrick M. Cronin and Ryan Neuhard, “Total Competition: The China Challenge in the South China Sea,” Center for a New American Security, January 9, 2020
• Ann Lee, “The Real Target of the US Assassination of the Iranian Military Leader Qassem Soleimani-China,” South China Morning Post, January 8, 2020
• Heritage Pride Productions' “Elf: The Musical,” January 23, 24, and 25th
• “The Future of Progressive Foreign Policy: 2020 and Beyond,” Cato Policy Forum, January 28, 2020

The Net Assessment crew is back and this week they are breaking down an article written by Brian Stewart in Quillette titled, "Tensions in NATO and the Looming End of Pax Americana." Is NATO worth American attention and money? Why don't the Europeans just get their act together? The crew discusses what threat NATO is designed to counter and whether it should forget about Russia and focus on terrorism. Also, Bryan has a grievance with attorney general Bill Barr, Melanie takes issue with the Danish Atlantic Council, and Chris gives an attaboy to the students at the University of California, Washington Center. Join Melanie, Chris, and Bryan as they dive once more into the breach.

Links

• Brian Stewart, "Tensions in NATO and the Looming End of Pax Americana," Quillette, December 5, 2019
• Bret Stephens, "NATO is Full of Freeloaders. But It's How We Defend the Free World," New York Times, December 5, 2019
• "Emmanuel Macron in His Own Words," Economist, November 7, 2019
• Katie Benner, "Barr and Durham Publicly, Disagree with Horowitz Report on Russian Inquiry," New York Times, December 12, 2019
• Ben Werner, "CNO Gilday Releases New, Simplified Command Guidance to Fleet," USNI News, December 4, 2019
• Christopher Preble, "Cops of the World No More," CATO, January 30, 2015
• Craig Whitlock, “At War with the Truth,” Washington Post, December 9, 2019
• James Laporta, "Afghan War Report Enrages Veterans and Gold Star Families: Even as More of Us Died, They Lied," Newsweek, December 9, 2019
• Jonah Schepp, "A NATO Summit to End All NATO Summits," New York Magazine, December 5, 2019
• Mariel Padilla, "NATO Conference is Canceled after US Ambassador Barred a Trump Critic," New York Times, December 8, 2019
• "The Day Will Come," Netflix
• Orlando Parfitt, "The Day Will Come' Claims Top Prize at Denmark's Robert Awards," Screen Daily, February 6, 2017

Chris, Bryan, and Melanie talk about the Interim Report issued by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence last week. What kinds of expectations should we have about AI being used for national security purposes? What kind of investments should be made in this technology, and where will the money come from? What about concerns that AI developed by American companies or the United States government might be used by authoritarian regimes to violate their citizens' human rights? Can we continue to reap the benefits of research collaboration with people from other countries, particularly China, and still protect national security secrets? Finally, Bryan tells us of his exploits in Italy, Chris gives a heartfelt appreciation to a friend and colleague, and Melanie looks forward to some long-awaited playtime with her nephews.

Links

• National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Interim Report, November 2019
• Jacey Fortin, “Uber C.E.O. Backtracks After Comparing Khashoggi’s Killing to an Accident,” New York Times, November 11, 2019
• Andrew Bacevich, “The Berlin Wall Fell and the U.S. learned the Wrong Lessons. It Got Us Donald Trump,” Los Angeles Times, November 8, 2019
• Christopher Preble, John Glaser, and A. Trevor Thrall, Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America's Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse, (Cato Institute, 2019)
• Robert Work and Eric Schmidt, "In Search of Ideas: The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Wants You," War on the Rocks, July 18, 2019
• Ilanit Chernick, "Holocaust Survivors Reunite with Rescuer at Yad Vashem," November 3, 2019, Jerusalem Post
• "Holocaust Survivor Reunited with a Baby He Saved During World War II," BBC, November 8, 2019
• Gina Kolata, "Vast Dragnet Targets Theft of Biomedical Secrets for China," New York Times, November 4, 2019
• Melanie Marlow, Tweets, November 11, 2019
• “Puffs,” Heritage Pride Productions, November 14-15-16, and 21-22-23

Melanie, Chris, and guest host Claude Berube discuss the promise and pitfalls of exit strategies. When policymakers plan to embark on foreign wars, should they also prepare a plan for extricating the nation from these wars when they are completed? Is an exit strategy a vital component of strategy? Or do exit strategies create unreasonable expectations of easy victory? Can an exit strategy focus attention on a desired end state, and prevent mission creep? Or are prudent adjustments only possible when policymakers are not shackled to pre-war objectives? Chris congratulates New England Patriots’ coach Bill Bellichick on victory number 300, Melanie blasts Sean Duffy for questioning a decorated U.S. Army officer’s patriotism, and Claude delivers a Net Assessment first -- a heartfelt attadog for his beloved four-legged companion, Reagan.

Links

• David Kampf, "When Are Exit Strategies Viable?" War on the Rocks, October 14, 2019
• Adam Wunische, "The Lost Art of Exiting a War," War on the Rocks, October 21, 2019
• Devon Clements, "Bill Belichick Becomes 3rd NFL Head Coach Ever to Accumulate 300 Career Wins," Sports Illustrated, October 27, 2019
• Christopher Preble, “New Rules for U.S. Military Intervention,” War on the Rocks, September 20, 2016
• Richard Fontaine, “The Nonintervention Delusion: What War Is Good For,” Foreign Affairs, November-December 2019
• Spencer Ackerman, “Baghdadi Is Dead. The War on Terror Will Create Another,” Daily Beast, October 28, 2019
• Doug Bandow and Christopher Preble, “Lost in the Furor Over Syria: Alliances Are a Means, Not an End,” War on the Rocks, October 23, 2019
• Ashley Feinberg, "This Sure Looks Like Mitt Romney's Secret Twitter Account," Slate, October 20, 2019
• "Sean Duffy on CNN," CNN, October 29, 2019
• Aaron Stein, "US Officials Ignored Trump on Syria and We are All Paying the Price," War on the Rocks, October 22, 2019
• "The Weinberger Doctrine," Washington Post, November 30, 1984
• Jason Whiteley, "No Exit, No Problem," Small Wars Journal, April 21, 2011
• James Nolt, "Exit Strategy," World Policy," World Policy, February 23, 2017

Join Chris, Melanie, and Bryan as they dive into Professor Philip Zelikow’s recent article in the Texas National Security Review titled, “To Regain Policy Competence: The Software of American Problem Solving.” Has policymaking gotten worse, or is it a problem with implementation? Or is implementation part of the policymaking process? The gang also discusses whether there is a lack of professionalism in the education and training of future policymakers. This week's episode is a little wonky, but well worth the time. 

At the end of the show, Bryan gives an attaboy for the first person to complete a marathon in under two hours, while Chris gives a shout out to his wife.

Links

• Philip Zelikow, "To Regain Policy Competence: The Software of American Public Problem-Solving," Texas National Security Review, September 2019
• John Glaser, Christopher Preble, A. Trevor Thrall, Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America’s Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse (and How We Can Recover) (Cato Institute, 2019)
• Justin Logan, “Cult of the Irrelevant: National Security Eggheads & Academics,” American Conservative, June 12, 2019
• Danielle Pletka, Tweet, October 13, 2019
• Justin Logan, Tweet, October 13, 2019
• Danielle Pletka, Tweet, October 13, 2019
• Krista Preble, LinkedIn
• Alex Horton, "A Latina Novelist Spoke About White Privilege. Students Burned Her Book in Response," Washington Post, October 11, 2019
• Tim Hains, "Beto O'Rourke: Churches That Oppose Same-Sex Marriage Should Lose Tax-Exempt Status," Real Clear Politics, October 11, 2019
• Ryan Prior, "Farmers in Idaho Rallied to Harvest a Neighbor's Potatoes as a Deep Freeze Threatened to Ruin Them," CNN, October 11, 2019
• Tariq Tahir, "Nobel Peace Prize 2019 – Greta Thunberg Snubbed as Award Given to Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed for Ending 20 Year Eritrea Conflict," Sun, October 11, 2019
• Chris Stein, "Nobel Snub No Obstacle in Great Thunberg's Climate Quest," Yahoo News, October 11, 2019
• Andrew Keh, "Eliud Kipchoge Breaks Two-Hour Marathon Barrier," New York Times, October 12, 2019
• The Bulwark Podcast, "Bryan McGrath on Trump and American Exceptionalism," October 14, 2019

Bryan is celebrating the anniversary of our first episode on a beach, so this week, Chris and Melanie are joined by Tom Karako of CSIS. In this episode they discuss the Syria Study Group Report, which concludes that "the US can still influence the outcome of the Syrian war in a manner that protects US interests." Does America have interests in Syria? If so, can they be managed and protected, particularly with a president who seems uninterested in investing political capital and American resources there? How has the Syrian civil war affected Russia, Iran, and Turkey, and does that matter to America? Finally, is there anything the United States should do about the terrible humanitarian situation, the effects of which have spilled over to other countries?

Tom tells us about taking his son to his first baseball game (go Nats!), Chris has a birthday wish for a former president, and Melanie both sticks it to and congratulates the press. We can't wait for Bryan to return and give us his review of the Downton Abbey movie!

Links

• "Syria Study Group Final Report," United States Institute of Peace, September 24, 2019
• Josh Blackman, "When Is It Acceptable Journalistic Practice to Surface Old Social Media Posts?" Reason, September 27, 2019
• Vance Serchuk, "Russia's Middle East Power Play," National Review, September 12, 2019
• Michael Singh, Tweet, September 23, 2019
• Trevor Thrall, “Resettling Syria’s Refugees Would Be Cheaper Than Widening the War,” Defense One, October 21, 2015
• Alex Nowrasteh, “Terrorists by Immigration Status and Nationality: A Risk Analysis, 1975 – 2017,” Cato, May 7, 2019
• Kareem Fahim, “In ‘60 Minutes’ Interview, Saudi Crown Prince Denies Ordering Khashoggi Killing,” Washington Post, September 29, 2019
• Anna Massoglia, “Saudi Arabia Ramped Up Multi-Million Foreign Influence Operation After Khashoggi’s Death,” Open Secrets, October 2, 2019
• Elizabeth Wolfe and Brian Ries, “Jimmy Carter, the Oldest Living Former US President, Is 95 Today,” CNN, October 1, 2019
• Reis Thebault and Brittany Shammas, "Amber Guyger, Police Officer Who Shot a Man to Death in His Apartment, Found Guilty of Murder," Washington Post, October 1, 2019
• Josh Blackman, "When is It Acceptable Journalistic Practice to 'Surface' Old Social Media Posts?" Reason, September 27, 2019
• Jack Detsch, "Congress Aims to Restore Syria Stabilization Aid," Al-Monitor, September 18, 2019
• Brett McGurk, "Hard Truths in Syria," Foreign Affairs, May 28, 2019
• Eric Schmitt, "US Sees Rising Threat in the West from Qaeda Branch in Syria," New York Times, September 30, 2019
• Brittany Shamas, "When Trump's Special Envoy to Ukraine Resigned, a Student Newspaper Beat Everyone to the Story," Washington Post, September 28, 2019
• "Timeline: Syria's Eight Years of Fire and Blood," Reuters, March 16, 2019
• Keith Pandolfi, "How to Refinish Woodwork," This Old House
• "Hypersonic," Merriam-Webster

Events

• "NATO: The Dangerous Dinosaur," Cato Book Forum, October 18, 2019
• "Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America’s Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse (and How We Can Recover)," Cato Book Forum, October 21, 2019

What have we learned in the 18 years since 9/11? Chris, Melanie, and Bryan discuss whether counterterrorism policy takes account of academic research on the subject. Going forward, the goal should be to implement the most cost-effective policies — and over time, to calm public anxiety about terrorism. Bryan gives a shout out to a bipartisan duo of Net Assessment fans, Chris gripes about NFL officiating, and Melanie offers her appreciation of the Constitution via an unlikely source: former Vice President Joe Biden.

Links

• Khusrav Gaibulloev and Todd Sandler, "Six Things We've Learned About Terrorism Since 9/11," Washington Post, September 11, 2019
• Khusrav Gaibulloev and Todd Sandler, "What We Have Learned about Terrorism since 9/11," Journal of Economic Literature, June, 2019
• John Mueller and Mark Stewart, Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security, (Oxford, 2011)
• John Mueller and Mark Stewart, Are We Safe Enough? Measuring and Assessing Aviation Security, (Elsevier, 2018)
• Trevor Thrall and Erik Goepner, "Step Back: Lessons for U.S. Foreign Policy from the Failed War on Terror," Cato, June 26, 2017
• Scott Simon, "Edward Snowden Tells NPR: The Executive Branch Sort of Hacked the Constitution," NPR, September 12, 2019
• Tom Schad, "As New Season Begins, NFL Coaches Still Trying to Sort Out Pass Interference Rule Changes," USA Today, September 5, 2019
• Christopher Preble, “Covert Wars, to What End?" War on the Rocks, August 7, 2019
• Austin Carson, "Recipient of the Georgetown University Lepgold Prize," Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago, September 4, 2019
• Ari Cohn, Tweet, September 12, 2019
• International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association, Tweet, August 19, 2019