In this episode, Nathan sits down with Geordie from Williams Real Estate to unpack one of the most powerful frameworks in property investing: the 18-year land cycle. Where we are right now in the cycle, which markets are about to get hurt, which ones are set up for the next boom, and why the people buying in Perth and Brisbane today could be the surrogate parents of the next decade.
00:00 - Intro: Nathan and Geordie's story and how they connected 04:00 - Geordie's background: construction, corporate, Rich Dad Poor Dad, and going all in 09:00 - The 18-year land cycle explained: 14 years of expansion, 4 years of downturn 15:00 - Tracing the cycle back: GFC, 1990 recession, Great Depression 21:00 - Where we sit today: equivalent to mid 2007 or late 1989 27:00 - How money flows through cities: Sydney, Melbourne to Brisbane, Perth and back again 33:00 - The mining boom bust and why those towns will roll over again 39:00 - Why Nathan is buying in Melbourne and Geordie is following 45:00 - The surrogate parent: buying what someone held for 12 years and sold at a loss 50:00 - Two key mistakes buyers agents make and why two big ones went under 55:00 - Cash vs debt, LVR strategy and when Nathan stopped using banks 01:01:00 - Motels, ten thousand properties, and the lazy investor philosophy 01:07:00 - When to sell, when to hold and the ten-year lost decade trap 01:13:00 - Final word: it's a banker's game with houses thrown in the middle
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