Dan Nathan and Dan Benton discuss tech investing on the RiskReversal Podcast. Benton, CEO at Benton Capital Management and a legendary former technology analyst at Goldman Sachs, shares his experiences from the 90s to the present. They delve into his famous '20 investing rules' for technology, the secular shift towards the internet, and valuation principles. Key conversations include the evolution of major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Google, their strategies, management styles, and the broader implications of AI and AR/VR. They also discuss future prospects for companies like Nvidia and Tesla, touching on SpaceX's potential impact. The discussion highlights the importance of innovation, management quality, and strategic foresight in tech investing.

Dan's Rules For Tech Investing

Dan Nathan is joined by Danny Moses from the On The Tape podcast. They discuss the recent Fed press conference focusing on the market's reaction to Fed policies, tariffs, and economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation. The episode then transitions to a conversation with Rick Heitzmann, founder of FirstMark Capital, and John Bennett, CEO of Dashlane. They delve into cybersecurity trends, the rise of password-less security measures, and Dashlane's focus on enhancing both consumer and enterprise security. The episode also touches on the broader implications of AI in cybersecurity and the shifting landscape of tech investments.

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Dan Nathan and Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, dive deep into the performance and future prospects of major tech companies. They begin with a nostalgic look at Apple's early ventures into audio products before moving into a comprehensive review of Apple's recent earnings call, highlighting China's impact on its performance and future AI integrations. The discussion then shifts to Microsoft's mixed results despite its early investments in generative AI, particularly through its partnership with OpenAI, and possible future partnerships with lesser-known AI companies like Anthropic. They also touch on Google's challenges with AI improvements and ad revenue, and how Gemini stacks up against OpenAI. The episode concludes with a critical view of Tesla's current market performance, Elon Musk's leadership, and potential future strategies, including a possible merger with his other ventures like X and XAI.

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Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, to discuss the company's long-awaited listing on the Nasdaq. Novogratz shares insights into the challenges faced over the past four and a half years, including interactions with the SEC and the impact of the Biden administration's policies on the crypto sector. They delve into the significance of the listing for Galaxy Digital, the resilience developed by the company, and their diversification into the data center business. The conversation also touches on macroeconomic themes such as the U.S. stock market, the impact of tariffs, the state of the bond market, and the evolving role of the U.S. dollar. Additionally, Novogratz provides his perspective on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, including the potential for a BRICS stablecoin backed by gold and the implications of fiscal policy on asset prices.

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan preview the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, and the lingering effects of trade tensions with China. They highlight key economic indicators, such as the strength of the U.S. dollar, crude oil prices, and job numbers. The discussion also covers significant earnings reports for the week, including Apple, Palantir, Disney, Uber, and Novo Nordisk. The episode also touches on Warren Buffet's increasing cash reserves and broader market sentiment amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

Timecodes

0:00 - SPX Key Levels

5:30 - Buffet's Cash & Risk

12:30 - Oil Impact

16:15 - AAPL & Indicators

21:00 - Sentiment

27:30 - Earnings To Watch

Guy Adami welcomes Stuart Sopp, CEO of Current, to discuss the significant changes in the market since their last conversation on December 24th. They explore the increase in market volatility observed since January and the impact on various sectors, especially exchanges that benefit from high volatility. The conversation delves into the effects of stockpiling before important events like tax refund season, which is crucial for Current’s customers who rely heavily on affordable banking services. Stuart highlights rising stress indicators such as increasing delinquency rates and reduced discretionary spending on items like gas and fast food. The duo discusses the job market, potential recession risks, and the impacts of ongoing trade tensions with China. They also analyze the U.S. dollar's weakening position and the potential ramifications on global markets, as well as the controversial handling of the gold repatriation by various countries. The episode concludes with a cautious outlook on the U.S. economy's future, considering the administration's policies and the potential for further market disruptions.

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Dan Nathan is joined by Dan Greenhaus , Strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management. The duo discuss recent market trends, including significant economic indicators like GDP and PCE, and delve into the impact of tariffs and trade deals on the stock market. Greenhaus offers a contrarian perspective on the current market sentiment, arguing that the potential for a shallow recession has been overstated. The conversation also touches on the durability of consumer spending, the implications of AI investment, and the potential trajectories for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Packed with valuable insights, this episode provides a thoughtful analysis of both immediate market conditions and longer-term economic forecasts.

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Dan Nathan is joined by seasoned analyst Steve Milunovich. Steve, who has a rich history as a sell-side analyst at Merrill Lynch and other institutions, discusses the various technological waves spanning from the centralized computing era of mainframes to the current generative AI boom. They dive deep into the historical context of tech market cycles, including the dot-com bubble and the rise of mobile, social, and cloud computing. Steve shares his insights on the role of major tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Nvidia in these cycles and the challenges of identifying future market leaders. The episode also explores frameworks for investing in individual companies, highlighting key differentiation strategies and the evolving nature of tech ecosystems. Finally, Dan and Steve reflect on the entrepreneurial legacies of Steve Jobs and Elon Musk.

References

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan dissect the current state of the market after the second Trump administration's first 100 days, tariff impacts, and key economic events. The pair highlights significant headlines from the Wall Street Journal and discusses the implications of automotive tariffs, GM profits, and job cuts at UPS. They weigh in on the persistent high volatility index, bond market movements, and the differing stances within the financial sector, particularly David Solomon's comments from Goldman Sachs. The episode also examines macroeconomic factors affecting big tech companies like Nvidia and Microsoft, CapEx investments, and the potential for an economic recession. The conversation wraps up with expectations for upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, earnings reports, and job numbers, emphasizing the intertwined nature of global economic policies and market reactions.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami look forward to the impactful earnings reports from major tech giants like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, even as the market anticipates Friday's jobs report. They analyze specific companies, including Tesla's contentious earnings call and Google's recent performance, and consider broader economic themes like the potential for a weaker US dollar and its implications.

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